90% chance Trump doesn’t follow through on his $2,000 tariff dividend promises — Polymarket

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https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-create-a-tariff-dividend-in-2025?tid=1762703395020

Will Trump Do It? It Pays to Bet ‘No’
Polymarket data shows wagers against Trump taking action would have yielded returns similar to the S&P 500. And gambling that he’ll actually follow through was a losing proposition.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2025-10-20/polymarket-bets-on-trump-inaction-pay-off

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