chance

Update: Iranian Military takes command and control of the government in Tehran! Hardliners are now in control. Chance of a negotiated deal have dropped like a rock!!

It was inevitable the IRGC would wholly take control. Negotiations haven't gone well because the moderate faction in Iran keeps getting over ruled by these Islamic fundamentalists. Unfortunately for the people of Iran it will mean the streets will be dangerous with even more… pic.twitter.com/nIX91vabqE — Tumbawumba (@_Tumbawumba) April 20, 2026

Talks end Saturday with no deal. Both sides confirm negotiations will resume Sunday. 29% chance they reach a deal by the end of the month. Without Israel on the table, everything is waste.

29% chance they reach a deal by the end of the month. https://t.co/UqL2cQIROS — Polymarket (@Polymarket) April 11, 2026 إيران المفاوضات مع الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية وصلت إلى طريق مسدود — عاجل من إيران 🇮🇷 (@A_G_L_G) April 11, 2026 BREAKING: Iran and the US made no progress in the latest round of Islamabad talks, per Fars …

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New Zealand OVERDUE — Scientists Warn 75% Chance Of M8 Quake Could Trigger Inland Tsunami [VIDEO]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_fgOphaFbE New Zealand sits directly on the boundary between the Indo-Australian and Pacific plates — and the Alpine Fault, which runs 600 kilometers along the South Island, last ruptured in 1717. That is over 300 years ago. Current scientific consensus puts the probability of rupture at 75% within the next 50 years, with an 82% …

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Odds of another leadership change in Iran before the end of the year just surged to 62%. 68% chance Trump is impeached before his term ends.

🇮🇷 Odds of another leadership change in Iran before the end of the year just surged to 62% Source: Polymarket https://t.co/QuWnl8InO5 pic.twitter.com/bLQMKRsqCO — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) April 7, 2026 🚨 68% chance Trump is impeached before his term ends. pic.twitter.com/McyJUHWh2V — Micah (@micah_erfan) April 7, 2026

75% CHANCE OF ANOTHER GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN BY SATURDAY

🚨BREAKING: 75% CHANCE OF ANOTHER GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN BY SATURDAY — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) February 9, 2026 PARTIAL US GOV’T SHUTDOWN POSSIBLE FEB. 14 DHS funding expires Feb. 13, risking a partial shutdown Feb. 14 affecting non-essential operations like TSA, FEMA, and immigration, while core border enforcement continues. Negotiations stall over immigration reforms. Markets see ~72%… …

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Cracks appear at the biggest banks. CNBC: Close to a zero chance that Jerome Powell cuts interest rates as he exits in May.

For a year, Wall Street’s dominant theme has been the so-called K-shaped economy, in which the well-to-do have powered financial activity despite lower earners’ struggles. This week, the nation’s largest banks reported a broadly disappointing set of quarterly earnings, marking the first stumble after a yearlong spree of rising markets and softening regulations paid off …

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Should have left when she had the chance

Should have left when she had the chance — Clown World ™ 🤡 (@ClownWorld) January 14, 2026 Factcheck: The video shows ICE agents arresting a resisting woman in downtown Willmar, MN, on Jan 12-13, 2026. Local news (West Central Tribune, Star Tribune) confirm she is a 19-year-old Somali refugee with legal status, arrested amid a …

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Supreme Court opinion day Friday. First ruling on Trump’s global tariffs likely at 10:00 A.M. ET. 75% chance the Supreme Court rules against Trump’s Tariffs.

This is one of those quiet rulings that can move everything: 75% chance the Supreme Court rules against Trump's Tariffs. https://t.co/htNjogFurr — Pentagon Pizza Watch (@pizzintwatch) January 6, 2026 Jan 6 (Reuters) – The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue rulings on Friday as it weighs cases with major implications both nationally and around …

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Kalshi signals 43% chance of US government shutdown on January 31, 2026.

GUESS WHO’S BACK? Kalshi now assigns a 43% probability of a U.S. government shutdown on January 31, 2026, the highest level since the 2025 crisis. Goldman Sachs estimates a 40–50% risk, while JPMorgan puts the odds at 20–40% for a lapse in early 2026. Both firms say a short… pic.twitter.com/4AkcBdQhG8 — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) December …

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Trump hits lowest approval rating of second term. Odds that Trump will be impeached again have risen above 50%. 85% CHANCE that the government shuts down AGAIN in just 2 months.

https://t.co/WB4W0amlqs — Kalshi (@Kalshi) November 12, 2025 Trump is upside down on every issue: -Epstein: -39-Foreign Policy: -8-Trade/Tariffs: -17-Economy: -18-Immigration: -5 pic.twitter.com/ybW4uKqHUb — Maine (@TheMaineWonk) November 13, 2025 🚨BREAKING: There is now an 85% CHANCE that the government shuts down AGAIN in just 2 months. pic.twitter.com/sRHoS93oGy — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) November 13, 2025 President Trump …

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90% chance Trump doesn’t follow through on his $2,000 tariff dividend promises — Polymarket

I feel so dumb now — President Trump promises $2,000 tariff dividend to every person in America: ‘People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS!’https://t.co/Pzym1BNeAt — Charles Gasparino (@CGasparino) November 9, 2025 BREAKING: 90% chance no "tariff dividend" is issued this year, despite rumors of a $2,000 airdrop.https://t.co/u7xmp6qzIc — Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 9, 2025 https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-create-a-tariff-dividend-in-2025?tid=1762703395020 Will …

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Multiple Senate Democrats open to GOP deal to end shutdown. Polymarket shows a 50% chance it will not end until after Nov 16.

BREAKING: Democratic senators open to cutting deal with GOP to end shutdown, per COURIER. Jon Ossoff (GA)Gary Peters (MI)Chris Coons (DE)Mark Kelly (AZ) Cortez Masto (NV)Jacky Rosen (NV) Jeanne Shaheen (NH)Maggie Hassan (NH)Angus King (ME)Elissa Slotkin (MI) — Leading Report (@LeadingReport) November 6, 2025 Polymarket has 50% probability of ending Govt shutdown only after Nov …

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Stephen Miller: “Never forget what they did to us…and what they will do to us again if given the chance.”

Never forget what they did to us…and what they will do to us again if given the chance. https://t.co/BdrxjlAsG8 — Stephen Miller (@StephenM) October 21, 2025 BREAKING: I am absolutely stunned by what I’m witnessing right now. We are on a boat in the Rio Grande near the Del Rio international bridge and we are …

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BREAKING: 4,000 federal workers were just laid off. There is 69% chance that government shutdown will last over a month!

BREAKING: 4,000 federal workers were just laid off. pic.twitter.com/6I7VE2XlQV — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) October 13, 2025 The Office of Management and Budget confirmed that more than 4,000 federal employees received Reduction in Force (RIF) notices beginning Friday, October 11, 2025. These layoffs are not furloughs. They are terminations. Unlike previous shutdowns where workers were temporarily …

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88% chance we are flat tomorrow

JPM Traders on FOMC scenarios tomorrow 1%- Fed hikes $SPX drops 2-4%4% – Fed pauses $SPX drops 1-2%40%- Hawkish 25bps cut – $SPX flat to down 0.50%47.5% – Dovish 25bps cut – $SPX gains 0.50%7.5% – 50bps cut- $SPX loses 1.5% to $SPX gains 1.5% TLDR 88% chance we are flat. — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) September …

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Models are flashing a 90% chance of corporate bloodbath in October. J.P. Morgan Warns S&P 500 could drop nearly 8%

Intuit…. Models are flashing a 90% chance of corporate bloodbath in October. Bring rain gear. More to come. — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) September 10, 2025 J.P. Morgan Warns S&P 500 Could Drop Nearly 8% — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) September 10, 2025 The overnight repo market is supposed to be the smoothest corner of the plumbing: …

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McDonald’s CEO warns middle and lower income Americans under extreme pressure; Only 25% of people believe they have a good chance at improving their standard of living.

The economy may appear strong for the top earners, but for the rest of the country, the pressure is building toward a breaking point. Political movements will grow more extreme as citizens feel ignored and powerless, widening the gap between elites and the struggling majority. The McDonalds CEO just gave a reality check for the …

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$1 trillion of AI Capex spend. $20 billion of revenue. AI is a bubble. There is a NON-zero chance that tomorrow’s AI boom ends tomorrow.

I don’t know who needs to hear this but… There is a NON-zero chance that tomorrow’s AI boom ends tomorrow. I’m not betting that way, but it is important to realize that there is a non-zero chance it all ends tomorrow with $NVDA earnings. Some of ya’ll way too concentrated.… — I Sell Options Guy …

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Trump ally triggers mortgage fraud storm against Fed governor Lisa Cook as president seizes chance to pressure central bank on rate cuts

Trump is not playing coy. On Wednesday he blasted Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook with a blunt demand: “Resign, now!!!” The trigger? A Bloomberg report of a possible mortgage fraud probe, amplified by his allies. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-calls-fed-governor-cook-131136021.html BREAKING: The US Department of Justice says it has received a criminal investigation referral related to Fed Governor Cook …

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Trump forecasts ‘50-50 chance’ for EU trade deal, lower chance with Canada — and floats ‘rebate’ for some Americans

Trump forecasts ‘50-50 chance’ for EU trade deal, lower chance with Canada — and floats ‘rebate’ for some Americans https://t.co/xLxsTw1y5I pic.twitter.com/tfmXevE7Md — New York Post (@nypost) July 25, 2025 WASHINGTON — President Trump told reporters Friday that the US has a “50-50 chance” of reaching a trade deal with the European Union ahead of an …

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We have no chance. Chinese vs. US parade says it all.

https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1934143099611082965 This parade cost $45 million?! And it even had additional sponsors like the UFC and Coinbase. Was it yet another money laundering scheme? pic.twitter.com/4wd1uosSvC — Vatnik Soup (@P_Kallioniemi) June 15, 2025 “Special thanks to our sponsor, Coinbase.” 🤦‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/ZYcg2SAJuS — Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) June 14, 2025

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