JPM Traders on FOMC scenarios tomorrow
1%- Fed hikes $SPX drops 2-4%
4% – Fed pauses $SPX drops 1-2%
40%- Hawkish 25bps cut – $SPX flat to down 0.50%
47.5% – Dovish 25bps cut – $SPX gains 0.50%
7.5% – 50bps cut- $SPX loses 1.5% to $SPX gains 1.5%TLDR 88% chance we are flat.
— TT3 (@TradingThomas3) September 16, 2025
Someone just sold $1,400,000 worth of $TLT calls
Imagine if Powell doesn't cut rates during FOMC tomorrow pic.twitter.com/AKi57k7tnr
— John Trades MBA (@JPATrades) September 16, 2025
Grok:
Market data as of Sep 16, 2025, shows only a 4-10% chance of a 50bps Fed cut tomorrow, per CME FedWatch and analysts like JPMorgan. Arguments for it include weak Aug jobs (142k added, prior revisions down 911k) and softening labor market, potentially prompting aggressive easing to avoid recession. However, sticky inflation (2.9% YoY) and strong GDP favor a 25bps cut (96% odds). It’s possible if data surprises, but not probable.