Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by confoundedinterest17 Mortgage demand is beginning to look a lot like Christmas. That is, mortgage demand will be listless in December (like the infamous Lake Erie snow effect), but leap upwards in January 202. Mortgage applications decreased 1.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications …
The wannabe real estate moguls going bust Mom-and-pop landlords built real estate empires using under-the-radar DSCR loans. Now it’s coming back to bite them. Applying for a home loan is a pain. You have to produce a heap of documents — bank statements, tax returns, employment records, tallies of investment accounts — to prove the …
BREAKING: THE THIRTY YEAR EXPERIMENT IS OVER Japan’s 10-year yield just hit 1.85 percent. Highest since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. But here is what no one is telling you: The 30-year yield touched 3.40 percent. The 40-year approaches 3.71 percent. These are levels never charted in modern Japanese monetary history. For three decades, the …
by confoundedinterest17 Every time the government tries to make housing more affordable, they make the problem worse. Some people should rent and not fall for the government’s latest folly, the 50-year mortgage. True, the 50-year mortgage would lower the monthly payment by several hundred dollars (see the following example where the monthly payment falls from …
by confoundedinterest17 Housing after Covid. 2020. A year that goes down in infamy. The Covid outbreak and the government’s insane overreaction to it. Masks and massive spending, driving up housing prices. After 2020, mortgage originations plummeted while housing prices soared. US home prices took off like a scalded cat after the Federal government went on …
They turned mortgages into time bombs in 2008 and now they are doing the same trick with AI, just with bigger numbers and darker corners. When the funding chain snaps this time, it will not just be a few banks choking, it will be the whole credit system gasping at once. Most AI companies are …
by confoundedinterest17 The US mortgage market is “livin’ on a prayer.” As a result, former homebuilder and current FHFA Director Bill Pulter has suggested 2 mortgage products to make US homes more “affordable”, adding to the legacy of stupid government policies to increase homeownership. But first, current mortgage demand. Mortgage applications increased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, …
Student loans (yellow) are a problem (getting worthless degrees). But the overwhelming problem is mortgage debt (green) byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts “Now you can't afford a 50-year mortgage so you're taking out a 100-year mortgage to pay $500 less a month but pay $3 million more in interest to the Bank?" byu/TonyLiberty inFluentInFinance “Now you can’t afford …
by confoundedinterest17 Redfin’s Housing Turnover Report, Q1–Q3 2025 Just 2.8 homes out of every 1,000 changed owners in the first nine months of 2025—the lowest turnover rate in at least three decades. This marks a 38% plunge from the 2021 frenzy, when 44 per 1,000 homes sold, and is 44% below the pre-pandemic 2019 pace of 40 …
US Rents were down 0.9% over the last year, the 29th consecutive month with a YoY decline. Renting a home is cheaper than paying a mortgage in all 50 of the largest metros in the US. byu/Boo_Randy_II inHouseBuyers
Wall Street’s most powerful bank is walking a tightrope between innovation and instability.By the end of 2025, JPMorgan plans to let institutional clients use Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral for loans—a radical integration of crypto assets into the traditional credit system that comes at a moment when the financial foundation beneath that system is starting …
pic.twitter.com/TyB6wtS6lp — Ronnie B. (@RonBunkers) October 10, 2025 Really? When you sign a mortgage, you confirm whether the property is your primary residence or a second home. The mortgage documents also state it’s illegal to claim a property as your primary residence if it isn’t. That doesn’t mean everyone is committing mortgage fraud. The paper …
The indictment of New York Attorney General Letitia James hit hard. Mortgage fraud, obstruction of justice, abuse of office. These are serious federal charges against the top law enforcement official in one of the country’s most important states. And yet the reaction from the media and politicians has been quiet, careful. No one wants to …
by confoundedinterest17 Feelin’ stronger for the most part. Mortgage applications decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 3, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted …
Just trying to put food on the table and make CC payments. One job no longer cuts it anymore. How many have googled this then “can’t pay my mortgage”? https://t.co/IpHkbQRSTO — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 3, 2025 Over 8.4 million workers hold multiple jobs to stay afloat. pic.twitter.com/ie7qcLefb4 — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) September 12, 2025 …
by confoundedinterest17 In addition to soaring sellers to buyers ratio in US housing markets, we now have surging mortgage default risk (CDR) after mortgage rate resets. Did Powell and The Fed (aka, Jay Powell and the Blackhearts) wait too long to cut rates? Here is the soaring ratio of home sellers to buyers. OOOGG!!!
You can’t cut rates when you have inflation. David Tepper says Fed could cut a few more times, but easing too much risks entering ‘danger territory’ Hedge fund billionaire David Tepper said the Federal Reserve could cut rates a bit more, but then risks more inflation and other dangers to the economy and markets if …
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-17/bessent-like-fed-governor-made-contradictory-mortgage-pledges US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent once agreed to occupy two different houses as his “principal residence” at the same time, mortgage documents show — the same kind of contradictory pledges that President Donald Trump has been using to try to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Bessent’s conflicting agreements obligated him to occupy homes …
by confoundedinterest17 Participants in the mortgage market are hoping for relief in the mortgage market when The Fed lowers rates tomorrow. But the reality is the the bond market is expecting declining short-term rates, but not much change at the 10-year tenor. Mortgage rates have fallen since October 23, 2023 as the yield curve has …
Most buyers since COVID couldn’t afford the house just like 2008. Especially with mortgage rates where they are. https://t.co/I9OLqLUANX — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 16, 2025 It would take a heart of stone to read about these F*cked Borrowers who can't sell their overpriced houses, & not laugh byu/Boo_Randy_II inHouseBuyers Markets don't seem to have …
A mortgage buydown is a financing technique where upfront fees (paid by the buyer, seller, or builder) lower the interest rate on a home loan, either temporarily (e.g., 2-1 buydown: 2% reduction year 1, 1% year 2) or permanently via discount points. It reduces initial monthly payments but they may rise later. Often used by …
by confoundedinterest17 US housing is simply unaffordable! Mortgage rates remain elevated since the Biden Administration took control in 2021. Although under Trump, the rise in the 30-year mortgage rate has slowed. But the 30-year mortgage rate is up 126% since the beginning of 2021 and the “Joe The Boss” Biden administration. Mortgage originations at large banks …
The mortgage market has been tanking for the last two years, suggesting that the U.S. housing market will continue to struggle in the final months of 2025. Mortgage applications to buy a house, as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association, is still 35% below its pre-pandemic levels, and down 55% from the pandemic peak. This …
While Fed Governor Lisa Cook attempts to litigate her way out of an alleged mortgage fraud (for which the Trump administration has delivered the receipts), The U.K.’s deputy prime minister, Angela Rayner, resigned this morning following an ‘ethical’ error on her home purchase tax payments. Rayner, who admitted on Wednesday that she did not pay …
Now 450 economists are lining up to defend mortgage fraud, all to serve an agenda that has nothing to do with truth. https://twitter.com/PoliticsOnX/status/1962885079727824910 https://twitter.com/AirborneRxDr/status/1962889230847459751 https://twitter.com/C_3C_3/status/1963240149917032527
via notayesmanseconomics This morning the focus is back on the Bank of England and we cam start with something which will match the new autumnal mood for the weather at least for the research student presenting the morning meeting. “August saw a slight softening in the rate of annual house price growth to 2.1%, from …
Houses are everywhere, prices stop climbing, buyers rejoice eventually. Insanity. I don’t see how housing doesn’t struggle going forward. Wait until the boomers die off. There will be no one left that can afford to buy. https://t.co/aNWA55mzBY — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 31, 2025 Among all recent grads living at home, the divide between men …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFsN38XiKeo
Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s lawsuit against Donald Trump challenges his ability to remove her from office but only briefly addresses the central accusations that she committed mortgage fraud. Cook did call mortgage fraud accusations “unsubstantiated and unproven” without going into detail. In a statement to CNBC, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte noted that …
Trump is not playing coy. On Wednesday he blasted Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook with a blunt demand: “Resign, now!!!” The trigger? A Bloomberg report of a possible mortgage fraud probe, amplified by his allies. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-calls-fed-governor-cook-131136021.html BREAKING: The US Department of Justice says it has received a criminal investigation referral related to Fed Governor Cook …