Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
SOFR reflects the cost of overnight borrowing collateralized by Treasuries. When SOFR drops, it usually signals: Excess cash in the repo market Lower demand for overnight borrowing More Treasury collateral available Money‑market funds accepting lower yields ecb also already started QEhttps://t.co/xcMp97Zo8Z — Filip Spasevski (@FilipsMoneyX) January 13, 2026
For private sector jobs, a low(er-)hire, but (still) low-fire market: • Vacancy rate ticked down to 4.5% in November, matching a cycle low • Hiring rate ticked down to 3.5% in November, matching a cycle low • The job-quitting rate ticked up one tenth to 2.2% (off of a cycle… pic.twitter.com/EeKTPGbVy9 — Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) …
But hey, inflation is down amirite pic.twitter.com/TO4OcggCT3 — ❝ 𝕵𝖚𝖉𝖆𝖘 ❞ (@jpegjudas) December 19, 2025 🚨BREAKING: Nike COLLAPSES as the U.S. Economy WEAKENS. pic.twitter.com/9FvBrPwYix — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) December 19, 2025 🚨BREAKING: Nike COLLAPSES as the U.S. Economy WEAKENS. pic.twitter.com/9FvBrPwYix — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) December 19, 2025 November's CPI report "should not be taken literally …
The world is about to pump massive liquidity into the system: – The US pauses QT, runs record deficits, and is considering $2,000 stimulus checks – China is running the largest deficit in its history – Japan is preparing a $110 billion stimulus package – The EU is planning to spend ~$1 trillion on military …
Total Put/Call Ratio fell to 0.70 on Friday, one of the lowest levels in the last 4 years 👀 pic.twitter.com/Wn7cFvbd9l — Barchart (@Barchart) December 9, 2025 Grok: The last notable low in the put/call ratio (similar to 0.70) was around May 2025. The S&P 500 rose 6.15% that month, followed by gains of ~5% in …
US leading economic indicators are still deteriorating: The ratio of US leading to coincident economic indicators is down to 0.85, the lowest level since 2008. This ratio has now declined for 4 consecutive years. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) tracks forward-looking data, including consumer expectations, manufacturing orders, weekly hours, and initial jobless claims. …
Homebuyers’ demand just dropped again in late 2025 – showing that the U.S. Housing Market downturn is getting worse. NAR’s pending sales index just dropped -1.2% from last year, and is down -27% from the long-term norm. Homebuyers are on strike, and the market has gotten so bad that sellers are now quitting. The …
Silver is experiencing a moment of profound significance, with major implications for the history of hard money, fiat currency debasement, and — most critically — inflation. We’re seeing one of the most volatile monetary assets approach a breakout above its previous highs, potentially setting the stage for a historic move. This is what explosive price …
(Bloomberg) — Applications for US unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest since mid-April, remaining relatively subdued amid economic uncertainty. Initial claims decreased by 6,000 to 216,000 in the week ended Nov. 22. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 225,000 applications. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number …
.@VP: "This economy was not harmed in 10 months. It took a deliberate 4-year administration that was making life harder for everyday Americans, that was importing foreign workers… over regulating, overtaxing… As much progress as we've made, it's going to take a little bit of… pic.twitter.com/ycgvkBPftW — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) November 20, 2025 And …
https://t.co/WB4W0amlqs — Kalshi (@Kalshi) November 12, 2025 Trump is upside down on every issue: -Epstein: -39-Foreign Policy: -8-Trade/Tariffs: -17-Economy: -18-Immigration: -5 pic.twitter.com/ybW4uKqHUb — Maine (@TheMaineWonk) November 13, 2025 🚨BREAKING: There is now an 85% CHANCE that the government shuts down AGAIN in just 2 months. pic.twitter.com/sRHoS93oGy — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) November 13, 2025 President Trump …
Job cuts for October totaled 153,074, a 183% surge from September and 175% higher than the same month a year ago. It was the highest level for any October since 2003. Companies in the technology sector announced 33,281 cuts, nearly six times the level in September. “Like in 2003, a disruptive technology is changing the …
There are around 772,000 homeless Americans (nearly 230 for ever 100,000 Americans), according to the last time a point-in-count assessment was done in 2024. In this visualization, Visual Capitalist’s Pallavi Rao, take a look at the highest homelessness rates by state, measured per 100,000 residents. Hawaii tops the ranking with 805 people experiencing homelessness for …
The US housing market is frozen: Only 28 out of every 1,000 homes, or 2.8%, changed hands in the first 9 months of 2025, the least in at least 30 years. The turnover rate has declined -38% since the 2021 peak, when 44 out of every 1,000 homes were sold. By comparison, the rate stood …
We’re about to enter the retail holiday season. Give it a few more weeks to see the real horror. Trucking freight volumes, a signal for the goods economy are a dumpster fire right now (-17% YoY) pic.twitter.com/4YPkLJtHdu — Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) October 27, 2025 Hiring is at its lowest since 2009. But we’re still …
Lowest hiring since 2009.Payroll growth has slowed to <0.1% MoM.Openings down 25% YoY.Wage growth still sticky at 3.8%. It’s the worst mix possible — weak labor, stubborn inflation. — Shashank Sindhe (@shashank_sindhe) October 13, 2025 WTF! Hiring just hit the lowest level since 2009. Only 204,939 hires so far in 2025.That’s a 58% collapse YoY.Worse …
FOX News reported that Gen Z borrowers’ credit scores have fallen to an average of 676. That number doesn’t just measure financial responsibility. It measures exhaustion. It shows a generation pushed to the edge and forced to make impossible choices. People are not living carelessly. They are paying rent, buying food, filling gas tanks, covering …
August hiring plans were the lowest since 2009. U.S. employers have announced 892,362 layoffs YTD, the most since 2020. Excluding COVID, this is the worst since the Great Financial Crisis. pic.twitter.com/6T7dxzZjvo — StockMarket.News (@_Investinq) October 4, 2025 It’s no wonder that the younger generations – Gen z and especially millennials are feeling much less confident …
"Today, the price of beef is at a record high in America as cattle inventory hits its lowest point in nearly 75 years. Since July 2020, ground beef prices have spiked 48% while steak is up 41%. For perspective, consumers are spending about 25% more for food at home compared to… pic.twitter.com/8mkUM1OguJ — Trevor Noren …
Must be time for another crisis. Job openings held steady in August but real-time measures don’t look so good for September. pic.twitter.com/RCNiOOKKvn — Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) September 30, 2025 6 Month Change in Private Employment 👇🏼 “Ruh Roh” pic.twitter.com/me2QNy0YZy — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) September 30, 2025 🚨BREAKING: The US labor market is CONTRACTING. US …
Trump tells Pfizer CEO to his face that he is “surprised” he is agreeing to massive price cuts to his company’s drugs. Albert Bourla smiled and stood silently as Trump announced devastating news for his company. Pfizer will now be selling prescription drugs to Medicaid at the “most favored nation’s prices.” This means that the …
The global food system is fraying at every seam. August 2025 did not deliver a seasonal blip or a temporary disruption. It revealed a continental-scale unraveling of protein supply, visible to anyone paying attention. Meat prices have surged another 10 percent this year, sending the FAO’s meat price index to an all-time high https://guyanachronicle.com/2025/09/06/fao-food-price-index-virtually-unchanged-in-august. The …
Alcohol usage by U.S. Adults hits LOWEST ever. This is a week after Las Vegas reporting tourism is sinking down 11.3% year over year in June. Very interesting patterns. pic.twitter.com/SD05lMNMPW — Patrick Bet-David (@patrickbetdavid) August 14, 2025 U.S. ADULT DRINKING HITS RECORD LOW, GALLUP FINDS Alcohol consumption among U.S. adults has fallen to its lowest …
EIA now sees Brent crude falling below $60 by the end of 2025 and averaging around $50 through 2026. https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press573.php The US rig count is already in freefall. It’s down to 411 this week, from 487 in January. Back in December 2022, there were 780 rigs running. That’s a 52% collapse. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/crude-oil-rigs OPEC+ has reversed …
Real wage purchasing power down 89% since gold standard ended. The average hourly wage (in gold terms) just hit a new all-time low, going all the way back to 1963 The real purchasing power of the average wage for an hour's work, has declined by 89% since the end of the gold standard in 1971 …
Treasury volatility just hit rock bottom, the lowest since January 2022. The MOVE Index cratered. Fear? Gone. Hedging? Forget it. Market signals? Silent. Only a quiet calm that should scare you. “Volatility in the Treasuries market has dropped recently, with the ICE BofA MOVE Index falling to its lowest level since January 2022.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-treasuries-volatility-gauge-falls-092845181.html Rates …
Ground beef just hit $6.12 Highest price ever recorded by the USDA Up 12% year over year Up more than 50% since 2022 This isn’t a seasonal spike It’s systemic US cattle inventory has collapsed 94.2 million head as of July 1 Lowest mid-year count since 1973 June feedlot placements: 1.44 million Lowest since 2017 …
"The economic data change index is at its lowest level in more than two years, while the economic surprise index is at its lowest level of 2025."@LJKawa pic.twitter.com/MKELKxtPHl — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) June 19, 2025 CPI ex-shelter falls to 1.5% yet Fed and Wall Street still fear tariffs and wages, ignoring signs of real disinflation …
The Bank of Japan is shrinking its balance sheet at a record pace: The Bank of Japan’s bond holdings dropped by -6.2 trillion Yen in Q1 2025, the most on record. Over the last 5 quarters, the BoJ's holdings have now declined by -14.2 trillion Yen. As a result, the BoJ's… pic.twitter.com/JJjLSzhyka — The Kobeissi …
BREAKING 🚨: Bonds The market value of Treasury Bonds as a % of the market value of Stocks has fallen to its lowest level since the 1960s pic.twitter.com/5MM4RYIo7B — Barchart (@Barchart) June 9, 2025 ⁉️Does central bank liquidity matter for US stocks? Global central banks total assets on their balance sheets have declined over the …