EIA now sees Brent crude falling below $60 by the end of 2025 and averaging around $50 through 2026.
https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press573.php
The US rig count is already in freefall. It’s down to 411 this week, from 487 in January. Back in December 2022, there were 780 rigs running. That’s a 52% collapse.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/crude-oil-rigs
OPEC+ has reversed its 2.2 million barrels per day cuts and is flooding the market to reclaim share, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE leading the push.
https://www.texasstandard.org/stories/opec-oil-surve-us-rig-count-gas-prices-energy-dominance/
The IEA says demand growth is cooling in China, India, and Brazil. Global consumption is set to rise just 680,000 barrels per day this year and 700,000 next year. Refining margins and jet fuel demand remain high, but the underlying growth trend is flat.
https://invezz.com/news/2025/08/13/global-oil-supply-to-surge-in-2025-outpacing-demand-iea-report/
“Rigs are already shutting below $70. Output will plunge.”
https://boereport.com/2025/08/08/us-drillers-cut-oil-and-gas-rigs-for-third-week-in-a-row-baker-hughes-says-2/
Nobody is naming the shale zones that have already breached their breakevens. Nobody is modeling the debt risks at $50 oil. And nobody is pricing in OPEC’s next move.
Gas prices will fall. Then they will spike. US production is already melting down.
The numbers are vertical. The rigs are horizontal. And the floor just gave out.