Ground beef just hit $6.12 Highest price ever recorded by the USDA Up 12% year over year Up more than 50% since 2022
This isn’t a seasonal spike It’s systemic
US cattle inventory has collapsed 94.2 million head as of July 1 Lowest mid-year count since 1973 June feedlot placements: 1.44 million Lowest since 2017
The pipeline is shrinking No relief coming
Ranchers are slashing herds Feed is expensive Rates are high Droughts are brutal Margins have vanished
USDA projects a 2025 calf crop of 33.1 million Down from last year That’s not growth That’s surrender
Imports aren’t bailing it out US banned Mexican cattle in May over screwworm outbreak Brazil faces 50% tariffs starting August 1 Australia and New Zealand already hit with 10% Global supply chains are fractured Domestic rebuilding could take years
Big retailers are hedging Walmart built its own beef facility in Kansas Tyson’s pivoting toward chicken Fast food menus are shifting Because the cost isn’t just high It’s volatile
USDA expects beef and veal prices to rise 6.8% in 2025 But ground beef is already up 11.8%
Regional price spread is widening Ground beef ranges from $6 to $16/lb depending on fat content and source Lean cuts average $6.05/lb, up 3.4% YoY Outpacing CPI Grass-fed boxes from regional co-ops start at $39/month Commodity vs premium now spans a chasm
Inflation expectations are shifting Consumers aren’t just bracing—they’re adapting Durable goods spending is flat But food inflation is triggering early stockpiling Retailers report increased bulk purchases of frozen beef Boxed beef demand is holding—but discretionary cuts are softening
Trader sentiment is cracking Cattle futures surged after the July herd report Fat cattle up $2.47, feeders up $4.72 Open interest thinning Managed money trimmed long positions by 2,386 contracts Choice-select spread collapsed from $29.53 to $18.22 Export sales to China down 32% YoY Cold storage beef down 6% MoM
The futures curve is flashing caution August contracts trade $25 below cash Basis correction overdue Volatility rising Market appetite for risk thinning
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/rally-reaction-for-cattle-futures
https://www.farmanddairy.com/news/usda-says-us-cattle-numbers-continue-to-decline
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/cofd0725.pdf
https://www.foodandwine.com/beef-prices-record-highs-2025-11777717