Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Every major correction on this chart started the same way. The Weekly 9 EMA crossed below the 21 EMA. 2022 Bear Market • Drop: -27% Market rallied… Then another correction • -10% Market rallied harder… Fast forward to now: Tariff Panic • Drop: -21% We rallied again… And the same weekly bearish cross just printed. …
Crash!!!! Circuit breakers Brace!!!! pic.twitter.com/HGFTfuExNZ — The Great Martis (@great_martis) March 3, 2026 BREAKING: Spain and Italy share markets down by 5%, Germany down 4%, while UK and France markets down 3%. — The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) March 3, 2026 🚨MASSIVE CRASH IN KOREAN MARKET. 🇰🇷 South Korea’s stock market crashed 7.23% on reopening, wiping …
Someone bought $1,200,000 worth of $VIX 70 calls today For reference the $VIX has hit 70+ two times since its creation… 2008 & 2020 pic.twitter.com/9TvJ3Gs5CF — John Trades MBA (@JPATrades) February 19, 2026 Listen, I get a lot of you think stocks only go up, but when the VIX1D is acting like this, it means …
VIX is still in backwardation. In fact it is more so than it was yesterday. This is typically not a bullish sign, especially going into a 3 day weekend where normally vol would be expected to be crushed. pic.twitter.com/kc1814fhLo — Michael Bento (@MichaelPBento) February 13, 2026 $VIX is goin 25 tuesday/wednesday and there is not …
Japan’s debt is a ticking time bomb and the whole world is about to get shredded while everyone pretends zero interest rates fixed anything. You've got to start asking: who's going to pay Japan's debt? Population growth is negative. Aging demographics are overwhelming the working. People aren't starting families. So who wants to buy their …
$VIX Inching in on December 2024 lows at 12.70$SPY broke ATHs today and looks like the kick off of a Santa rally is starting. IV is VERY low and in turn contracts and hedging is very cheap. Give me a $SPY breakout into the beginning of January. After that a pop in the $VIX… pic.twitter.com/U0F0IRfn5H …
“We’re standing at the edge of a market reckoning that will leave 2007-2008 looking like a footnote. The longest bull market in history doesn’t end quietly. Consider this your final warning. Heading into 2026 the underlying stress in financial markets is clearer than most headlines suggest. Regional banks still carry significant commercial real estate exposure …
$VIX there will be news And VIX will see 28 Something nasty is coming 🩸$SPY $QQQ — 👁 (@Oculustrade) October 16, 2025 Premarket futures are up and trading green, but with the $VIX still above 20, this rally can’t be fully trusted. Our OptionEdge AI's Quant indicators have flipped to Neutral from Buy on $SPY, …
Jerome Powell’s last Jackson Hole speech will test his legacy as he battles inflation, defends Fed independence and pushes back against political pressure. Here's how the 🇺🇸 stock market has performed around Jerome Powell's recent Jackson Hole speeches – Trend Spider pic.twitter.com/BsBVztZIWI — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) August 22, 2025 Here’s how $SPY have reacted to Powell’s …
Treasury volatility just hit rock bottom, the lowest since January 2022. The MOVE Index cratered. Fear? Gone. Hedging? Forget it. Market signals? Silent. Only a quiet calm that should scare you. “Volatility in the Treasuries market has dropped recently, with the ICE BofA MOVE Index falling to its lowest level since January 2022.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-treasuries-volatility-gauge-falls-092845181.html Rates …
Ground beef just hit $6.12 Highest price ever recorded by the USDA Up 12% year over year Up more than 50% since 2022 This isn’t a seasonal spike It’s systemic US cattle inventory has collapsed 94.2 million head as of July 1 Lowest mid-year count since 1973 June feedlot placements: 1.44 million Lowest since 2017 …
Market runs on manufactured momentum and ticking clock… $VIX puts are being bought just before $SPY ramps like what's shown below to suppress vol further and cause an automatic rise in equity prices. This also happened yesterday and Monday. They didn't need to do this last week as the momentum trade was on its own. …
Key Events This Week: 1. Markets React to US Strikes on Iran – Monday 2. May Existing Home Sales data – Tuesday 3. June CB Consumer Confidence data – Tuesday 4. Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Tuesday & Wednesday 5. US Q1 2025 GDP data – Thursday 6. May PCE Inflation data- Friday… — The …
Crude oil volatility just exploded to 71.5—its highest level in over a year. Historically, $OVX above 55 signals major stress in energy markets. We’re now well beyond that. This isn’t noise. This is dislocation. pic.twitter.com/w3S5TnB9JN — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) June 17, 2025 What it implies: Energy markets are on edge. This level of …
Before you get too bullish, be aware that $SPX is facing liquidity headwinds pic.twitter.com/YOnBnVeBRU — Cam Hui, CFA (@HumbleStudent) May 4, 2025 Keeping a close eye on volatility on Monday. Both $VIX futures and 3 month VIX futures broke the 50 day moving average on Friday. If volatility finishes the day flat that's a huge …
by confoundedinterest17 Its Monday! Typically we see Blue Mondays. But not with the tariff war between China and the US. We are watching a chess match between Trump and China. Dow futures are up 461 points at 9am EST. I’ve got a whole lot of lovin’ for the markets!
$VIX Weekly looks ominous. Brace for unbearable volatility. pic.twitter.com/UUZFkwocMp — The Great Martis (@great_martis) March 31, 2025 So here we are with two days to go and we just learned that Trump plans a $600 billion tax increase on the U.S. working class and a global financial crisis: https://t.co/NK2zin9W1G Ok, I think Wall Street got …
by confoundedinterest17 Wow! Gold just had its best quarterly performance since the 1980s! Meanwhile, the volatility of gold ETFs remains subdued.
https://twitter.com/mister_macro/status/1905746568416055490
Crypto’s biggest problem isn’t just its volatility—it’s the illusion that it’s solving anything. If you can convince enough people to buy into the hype, it works. Not because of any intrinsic value, but because new buyers are always needed to keep the system afloat. Sound familiar? It should. This is the essence of a pyramid …
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the White House prioritizes the “real economy” over short-term market volatility. He downplayed concerns about economic fluctuations, dismissed fears of a major slowdown, and emphasized the transition from government-driven to private sector-led growth. His comments come amid rising U.S.-EU trade tensions and stock market declines. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/03/13/treasury-secretary-bessent-said-the-white-house-is-focused-on-the-real-economy-and-not-concerned-about-a-little-market-volatility.html
CBOE Volatility Index $VIX drops to lowest level this year 🚨 pic.twitter.com/4vQP04S7r9 — Barchart (@Barchart) January 22, 2025 The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has plummeted to a startling 15.06 on January 21, 2025, marking its lowest level this year. This drastic drop in the market’s “fear gauge” suggests a troubling complacency among investors, who appear …
0DTE options now dominate $SPX volume. Corporate insider sell/buy ratio just hit RECORD levels. Unemployment rate above 36-month MA… This is an ominous sign The unemployment rate has moved above its 36-month MA Such a development has happened 10 prior times since 1952 Every single time, it ended in a recession pic.twitter.com/kFiM6P6773 — Bravos Research …
MSTR’s issuance relies on NAV premium and implied volatility, which would flatten without them. TLDR: MSTR sells shares at 2.3x NAV, making the sale accretive by buying BTC at a premium. Convertible bonds sold with 65% delta offer 1.5 BTC of buying power from the delta. Convertibles priced at 100 implied volatility, 13% premium over …
Never, ever forget. Long-term track records on an asset class that implodes every few years are total BS. Anyone stating them needs to be called out as a pumper looking for a greater fool. Last 10 Years – Largest Drawdowns Gold: -22% Bitcoin: -78%, -82%, -55%.#StoreOfValue pic.twitter.com/OKcPL7ZgGU — Lawrence McDonald (@Convertbond) December 5, 2024
#GOLD has entered the target zone between $2,780-$3,000 ahead of the US election. The overall trend remains positive, but a correction is expected within this range. Prepare for strong volatility in the coming weeks as the election outcome unfolds. pic.twitter.com/apdFdstUsU — Gold Predictors (@GoldPredictors) November 1, 2024
Yield erosion accelerates. Dow jones breaches 3 months trend line Nasdaq Double top . Semiconductors Down 13% from A/T high. Gold forewarning. Cattle misdirected with hope and bullish narrative. DXY up 5% from low. The $VIX forewarning. God bless and Godspeed. Yield erosion accelerates.Dow jones breaches 3 months trend lineNasdaq Double top .Semiconductors Down 13% …
$VIX Lava build up . Eyes on 23 it goes and she blows. pic.twitter.com/ezjlIzk9qS — The Great Martis (@great_martis) October 10, 2024 VIX at S&P 500 all time high: pic.twitter.com/KvsULR4SY8 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) October 9, 2024 GoOgleMicrosoft Both below the undercarriage.Classical churn before they resume downtrend. Cattle remain oblivious. pic.twitter.com/dterX0hgCV — The Great Martis (@great_martis) …
“Is the market volatility set to surge in the coming months? Over the last 30 years, US yield curves have been a leading indicator for the volatility index, $VIX, with roughly a 36-month lag. The periods of flattening and inverted yield curves have been associated with suppressed volatility. On the other hand, once yield curves …
The lack of confirmation for new record highs for the S&P 500 is still a major divergence that should not be ignored. Historically, this has preceded corrective volatility in markets seen in 2007, 2018, 2020, and 2022. h/t IAmNotAnEconomist