Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
It’s likely to dump either Monday or Wednesday. We’ve been pumping all week on low volume during one of the worst market weeks. This is overdue for a drop. h/t ElonMusksAlgorithm Please note that this is not financial advice.
Every 4 years, the VIX spikes about 2-3 weeks before the election! It has never failed in the last 3 elections!I buy a volatility Proshares Etf usually within that range, and sell it either on the Friday before or next Monday! Beware of a false start now… — Bridge Founders (@PBridgeFounders) September 26, 2024 Pice …
So after the latest data release from the #BOJ balance sheet we now know central banks stepped in heavy to suppress volatility… isn’t this kicking the can down the road making the problem bigger and bigger? asking for a friend… https://t.co/Ey5RWZIkcZ — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) September 3, 2024 Here you go sir https://t.co/9EK7NCI1um — JustDario …
🍿POPCORN ALERT 🍿 Yep, the #Nikkei will go first 🎯 Narrator: #BOJ jawboning resumes in 10…9…8… https://t.co/0X6nwtnmui pic.twitter.com/ion27lAheV — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) August 25, 2024 The Great Carry trade unwind. is a 2nd wave of global selling inevitable ? Breach of support ? pic.twitter.com/kuY0vJSZGX — The Great Martis (@great_martis) August 25, 2024 #JustDarioDaily ⚠️ IF …
"The hits just keep on comin'" – Casey Kasem This one today – in case you're told the initial rebound after a volatility spike is a good thing. Not so much when the market is still near divergent, overbullish, record highs. Not an investment strategy, not a forecast. Just FYI. pic.twitter.com/e0q21AkQxg — John P. Hussman, …
The “pain trade” is back… That means for traders it's a good time to consider smaller position sizing, wider stops and much more discerning execution. – Smaller size to reduce total exposure – Wider stops to account for illiquid, volatile trading conditions – Discerning execution to limit overtrading — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) August 6, …
Stocks fell sharply on Friday with the S&P 500 headed for its worst session in roughly two years, as a much weaker-than-anticipated jobs report for July ignited worries that the economy could be falling into a recession. The broad market index dropped 2.1%, on pace for its biggest one-day sell-off since 2022, while the Nasdaq …
While GDP and inflation are critical indicators of economic health, unemployment also plays a significant role in market dynamics. High unemployment can lead to decreased consumer spending, which in turn affects corporate earnings and investor confidence. This can trigger market volatility and spread widening as investors seek safer assets. Q2 2007 & July stock outlook: …
AAII bulls up to 52.7% – highest level of this year and 2nd highest level since early 2021. Optimism is elevated, but risks become more acute when the crowd heads for the exits pic.twitter.com/0foZRmidNi — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) July 19, 2024 356 companies have filed for bankruptcy this year, higher than in the pandemic …
by LarryStink Options vol continues to get crushed day in and day out, and as more and more funds incorporate option selling strategies this is a trend that will continue. Understanding the Dealer/Market maker exposure and their hedging strategies can help you avoid death by paper cuts as realized volatility is often overstated and be …
You couldn’t possibly be referring to them simply not admitting everything was on fire… h/t Calm_Improvement659
Over the past 13 weeks, initial unemployment claims have remained remarkably consistent, hovering around 212k, despite the inherent variability in state programs and seasonal factors such as holidays. If the trend of minimal volatility persists, it could erode confidence in the accuracy of unemployment data and raise concerns about underlying economic conditions. Further stagnation in …
Futures selling off again. Looking like it’s going to be a rough open. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 1, 2024 Amidst escalating investor nervousness, sharp outflows from $LQD ETFs signal heightened concerns over US high-grade credit, amplifying anxieties about the looming Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. As traders anticipate the largest Fed-day move in the S&P …
Key points: Commercial Real Estate Collateralized Loan Obligations (CRE CLO) issuance surged from $19 billion in 2019 to $45 billion in 2021. 72% of collateral is linked to multifamily properties. Delinquent loans or those in special servicing rose to 8.6% in January but decreased to 7.4% in February. Issuers repurchase delinquent loans using cash reserves …
The recent market turbulence highlights the dual nature of leverage, capable of amplifying both gains and losses. With a staggering 88% of futures SPX positions now in the red, the potential for further downside moves looms large, particularly if the selling pressure persists. As futures markets show signs of stabilization early this morning, the market’s …
In an unprecedented move, the FICC has just announced a new charge for increased Volatility around certain Fed releases – starting Monday. The charge will = 10% of members' VaR, accruing two days prior to, and the day of the specified Events below (/if conditions are met). pic.twitter.com/x7FgOaWdwj — M.B. (@741trey) April 12, 2024 This …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpMhC_FbAMw
"Investors have piled into [Bitcoin] funds at a historic clip since their Jan. 11 launch, with total assets in the 10 U.S. spot bitcoin funds on the market swelling to nearly $50 billion."@jackpitcher20 pic.twitter.com/0FHGsqLYEU — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) March 6, 2024 Bitcoin mania is back on the scene as investors rush into cryptocurrency funds at …
A trader recently dropped a cool $16.7 million on about 250,000 call contracts tied to the VIX Index, betting on increased stock market volatility. This isn’t your average move – the strike price is 17, expiring on Feb. 14. With the VIX not breaking 17 since November, it’s got everyone buzzing. Seems our trader senses …
via Yahoo: The media industry has been rocked this holiday season by news of newsroom layoffs as outlets downsize to combat volatility in advertising, after an already-brutal year of job cuts. In the last month alone, Condé Nast, G/O Media, Vice Media and Vox Media have all cut staff, most of whom already had layoffs …
Bitcoin’s sudden 5% drop to $41,500 raises questions about liquidity after a prolonged bullish streak. On Friday, we posted this setup for subscribers. We called for a move back into $41,500 support where a higher low could form. $41,500 marked the EXACT low of the decline just now. Subscribe at the link below to receive …
In a rollercoaster ride for investors, Nvidia, a colossal $1.2 trillion company, briefly witnessed a nearly 7% dip in its stock after posting stellar Q3 results exceeding expectations. With revenue at $18.1 billion and EPS at $4.02, the top 10 largest company in the world showcased its ability to move significantly, rallying nearly 30% in …
As we navigate the currents of financial markets, the landscape reveals a precarious situation. Reflecting on the March 2020 crisis, which extended beyond the realm of COVID-19 to a massive blowout of the basis trade, the present scenario raises alarms. Collateral haircuts hover at zero or near-zero levels, with banks shouldering increasing risks. Astonishingly, the …
The Big Bond Market Event Wednesday Is at Treasury, Not the Fed The Federal Reserve’s policy statement is setting up to be the No. 2 event on Wednesday, with investor focus instead likely to be on the Treasury Department’s new borrowing plan, due hours ahead of the interest-rate decision. The so-called quarterly refunding announcement will …
Everyone was tricked into dumping their volatility positions at the worst possible time. — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) October 25, 2023 #recession … #StockMarket Bubble edition#volatility #VIX 📈 😬 https://t.co/xm7BJe63zl pic.twitter.com/8ibL9o05JU — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) October 25, 2023 #recession … #StockMarket Bubble edition#smallcaps $IWM #RTY_F 📉 🥶 https://t.co/N7GtyHGPEb — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) October 25, 2023 Jeremy Grantham: …
A financial market of this magnitude behaving like a speculative penny stock due to a single individual’s tweet about closing a position is a concerning and unhealthy sign for its stability and reliability. https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1716500529147212201 🚨BREAKING: BILL ACKMAN COVERED HIS BIG BOND SHORT! “There is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at …
H/T: @TaviCosta — Barchart (@Barchart) October 10, 2023 Paul Tudor Jones: The U.S. Is Moving Towards an “Untenable Fiscal Position.” Favors Gold & Bitcoin Hedge fund magnate Paul Tudor Jones expressed concerns over increasing geopolitical risks and the U.S.’s rising debt, making stocks less appealing. Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box, he highlighted the precarious U.S. …
The energy minister of Saudi Arabia says OPEC+ is ready to wait months for insights from "actual data" before modifying policies in response to price fluctuations in the crude market. Keyword:Months. This is going to be a wild and unpredictable ride. Energy. — Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) October 8, 2023 Down futures just opened ~200 …
