Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/ A few weeks ago, VIX briefly soared 400% following a 22% overnight drop in the Bank of Japan’s stock price. Adding to the unease, the M2 yield inverted last week, signaling potential trouble ahead. These developments hint at a looming market crash. For those who don’t know, that’s the Volatility Index. The higher it …
An air temperature of 102°F (38.9°C) and 85% relative humidity produced this brutal heat index. Check out the data from the weather station here: https://t.co/MsEqPTxAF6 — Colin McCarthy (@US_Stormwatch) August 28, 2024 However, a historic heatwave is occurring across much of the Middle East, and one weather station in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia—which currently holds the …
by Mike Shedlock People who want a home but cannot afford one keep watching home prices soar out of sight. The Fed says this isn’t inflation. Measuring Prices Case-Shiller measures the price of the same home over time. Median and average prices have no consistency on number of rooms, square footage, location, amenities, lot size, …
WARNING: Labor market conditions index has been steadily declining This systematically happens prior to recessions pic.twitter.com/w3YYWHR566 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 26, 2024 US firms’ ‘low firing’ approach may turn to more layoffs, Fed’s Barkin tells BBG WASHINGTON, Aug 26 (Reuters) – The “low-hiring, low-firing” approach that U.S. businesses currently take to their employment decisions …
U.S. Dollar Index $DXY on track for lowest close since July 2023 👀 pic.twitter.com/QttP92aA3K — Barchart (@Barchart) August 23, 2024 This is crazy. People think they’re getting richer as the market goes up but in real terms not really. https://t.co/dytRkimwVe — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 23, 2024 Wall Street’s reaction to the Fed’s impending rate …
"The Employee Motivation and Commitment Index fell 21 points in August, the largest month-over-month decline in data going back to January 2022 … [but] the index remains above its two-year average of 109."@ADP pic.twitter.com/KukCKTwbir — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) August 21, 2024 The Employee Motivation and Commitment Index is a measure used to gauge how motivated …
The PPI rose 0.1 percent in July vs. a 0.2 percent Bloomberg Econoday expectation. The way the PPI outperformed will please the Fed. Data from the BLS, chart by Mish. The PPI Report for July was a bit of pleasant news this morning. PPI Key Points The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1 percent in …
🚨HISTORIC DECLINE IN TRADING LIQUIDITY Bloomberg reports the two-week drop in the S&P liquidity index is the worst on record since 1996. “That’s pretty surprising given that conditions are nowhere near as bad as they were during the GFC or Covid” OUCH. — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 9, 2024 Wild chart… Equity Liquidity evaporated …
2/ Initial jobless claims has been rising throughout 2024 Which points to a slowly weakening labor market pic.twitter.com/Uf9VtSYRZG — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 30, 2024 4/ A rise in claims has also coincided with sharp market declines pic.twitter.com/YyyynzYOhb — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 30, 2024 6/ In 2024, claims have risen from 190,000 to 240,000 …
As of now, there hasn’t been a record number of bankruptcies among companies with assets above $50 million. The Bloomberg Bankruptcy Index, which considers both the size and number of bankruptcies, remains relatively low. This suggests that while smaller companies, particularly in the mortgage and real estate sectors, may be struggling, larger financial institutions have …
Speculative positioning in US equity index futures is at all-time highs 🚨 https://t.co/TanGdixabv pic.twitter.com/VUXve06IL3 — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) July 8, 2024 Asset Managers’ exposure to US equity futures hits a record high. https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/1810467469879857513 Concentration concern: the 3-month correlation between the S&P 500 and the # of stocks advancing has fallen below the dot-com bubble …
Authored by Daniel Lacalle, I frequently receive comments about the strength of the United States economy and the unfairness of perceiving things as less than stellar. Is it really the “strongest economy ever”? It’s evident that it’s far from being the “strongest economy ever.” The United States unemployment rate has risen to 4.1%, the highest in three …
Macro was ugly – really ugly – today: Personal Consumption ugly (Q1 downgraded on 3rd look), continuing jobless claims ugly (highest since Nov 2021), core capital goods new orders and shipments ugly (not a great signals for Q2 GDP), pending home sales ugly (puke to record lows SAAR), and finally, Kansas City Fed manufacturing ugly (21st month in a row without expansion)… This smashed the …
The US Leading Economic Index® (LEI) has dropped 14.7% from its peak in this economic cycle. Historically, such a decline has only occurred during recessions over the past 65 years. The index considers data from the US labor market, manufacturing sector, building permits, S&P 500, and bonds. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), designed to …
(RTTNews) – A report released by the Conference Board on Friday showed its reading on leading U.S. economic indicators fell by more than expected in the month of May. The Conference Board said its leading economic index decreased by 0.5 percent in May following a 0.6 percent decline in April. Economist had expected the index …
Surprise! US Economic Surprise Index Slumps To -28.10 (Lowest Since 2022)https://t.co/Csapb2jLBY — Jeff Lee 2020 (@JeffLee2020) June 22, 2024 The U.S. Economic Surprise Index dropping to -28.10 is concerning and suggests that the economy is performing worse than anticipated. If this trend continues, it could indeed lead to a recession. Economic indicators consistently falling below …
by confoundedinterest17 I am no forune teller, but this doesn’t look to good for old Joe (Biden). Existing home sales fell -2.8% YoY in May. US existing home sales fell for the third straight month in May (-0.7% MoM vs -1.0% exp). This left home sales down 2.8% YoY (YoY sales have not increased since July …
2/ Over the last 50 trading sessions, investors have grown increasingly bullish on the market This optimism has reached levels of complacency similar to December 2021 Just months before the market began a 25% drop pic.twitter.com/HvhkblDRMP — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) June 20, 2024 4/ When many investors are bullish, smart money gets defensive, scaling back …
According to recent reports, continuing claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. have reached their highest level in two years. As of the week ending November 18, 2023, approximately 1.93 million people were collecting unemployment benefits, which is about 86,000 more than the previous week. This trend indicates that some individuals who are already unemployed may be facing challenges in finding new work. …
The NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to 92.2 from 68.6, the sharpest decline since January. pic.twitter.com/VJCtYT1HDC — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) June 7, 2024 The NAAIM Exposure Index is a tool used to gauge the sentiment of active investment managers in the stock market towards US equities. Here’s a breakdown: Source: The National Association of Active Investment …
by confoundedinterest17 The US economy is going down. 2024 hasn’t been a good year for Bidenomics. The Economic Surprise Index is falling to its lowest point in years. The economic confidence index has been terrible since Covid and Biden’s Reign of Ecoomic Error. We need to give Biden the hook!’ And I don’t want The …
Recent economic updates from the U.S. paint a bleak picture, stirring deep unease among investors. The latest indicators, including the sharp decline in the Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index, signal a worrisome underperformance reminiscent of the tumultuous trends observed in 2019. This downturn in economic sentiment comes at a precarious moment, with all eyes fixed on …
by confoundedinterest17 I saw former President Obama criticizing former President Trump for not passing “transformative” changes. That is, Trump didn’t sign any Obama-like transformative changes (like Obamacare). Truimp did try to slow down the damage done by Obama and his transformative agenda (e.g., open borders, wealth redistritution, green energy) that Biden has attempted to continue. …
#recession … #GFC2 US #manufacturing edition KC Fed leading index of new orders falls further into contraction 📉 👀 https://t.co/eiEe2sKxk3 pic.twitter.com/Jus16lkISa — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) May 23, 2024
$VIX closed the last week below 12, something not happening since 2019 Can it go lower? Sure it can, $VIX All Time Low was 8.56 on Friday 24 Nov 2017… Few months before Volmageddon that triggered in February 2018 ⚠️ Beware, $VIX is like a spring, the more and the longer is… https://t.co/f29dYyuaZh pic.twitter.com/2JZz8TidRh — …
JUST IN: Donald Trump announces his campaign is accepting donations in cryptocurrency. — The Spectator Index (@spectatorindex) May 9, 2024 JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Former President Donald Trump says "Biden doesn't even know what" crypto is and if you like crypto you "better vote for Trump." pic.twitter.com/Fu8UM8Rsiq — Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) May 9, 2024 he also said …
The Drewry World Container Index surged by 16% this week to reach $3,159 per 40ft container, marking an astonishing 81% increase from the same period last year. Compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019, current rates are a staggering 122% higher. Year-to-date averages remain significantly elevated at $3,227 per 40ft container, surpassing the 10-year average by …
by confoundedinterest17 COVID was a gift to Biden. The furious Federal spending of Q2 2020 through Q1 2021 helped keep GDP growth above recession levels. Ignore Biden’s demented rants/lies about cutting the debt in half. Biden has claimed he cut the $34+ trillion national debt by $7 billion, $1.4 trillion, $1.7 billion, $1.7 trillion, and …
With credit spreads on the rise and the 10-year TIP trading at 2.2%, financial conditions are tightening, sparking concerns among investors. While systematic funds tread cautiously amid thinning market depth, the next fortnight looms as a critical period. Contrary to expectations, inflationary fears drive Treasury yields up, leading to a plunge in stocks and a …
The outlook for small business sales is beginning to decline, historically signaling a challenging macroeconomic environment. The Small Business Optimism Index plummeted to its lowest level in March since December 2012, marking the third consecutive decline and the 50th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Small biz sales outlook starting to deteriorate… Historically …