Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by confoundedinterest17 Oh Susie QT. The Fed loves you. And The Fed has put a spell on the economy. Where do we sit today? Bank credit growth has been negative for the last 26 weeks. As M2 Money growth has stalled. What will The Fed do? While the FOMC may start the discussions around tapering QT …
by confoundedinterest17 Americans are addicted to gov. And government is addicted to spending (and creating more debt). Let’s look at wage growth for government apparatchiks relative to private sector workers. While wage growth overall was modest, it is government wage growth that is driving it – now at a record high! Source: Bloomberg And on the back …
by confoundedinterest17 Biden and Congress’ insane spending and debt issuance are simply unsustainable. Isn’t it wonderful to be 81 years old like Biden and a have a credit card with seemingly no credit limit? And partner with other octogenarians like Pelosi and McConnell to bankrupt the US? Free-spending US Senate Demagogue Democrat Chuck Schumer is only 73. But all …
Two years ago Elon Musk was promising 50% growth for the foreseeable future. That was the all time high for the stock and the market. Now Jensen Huang Nvidia CEO is promising the same feat. Nothing changes, except the fools who speak and the fools who listen. Two years ago Elon Musk was promising 50% …
Tesla, the electric vehicle giant, faces headwinds as it misses fourth-quarter estimates, reporting weaker-than-expected auto revenue. Despite a 3% growth in total revenue, automotive revenue saw a mere 1% increase from the previous year. The company warns of potentially lower vehicle volume growth in 2024, signaling a cautious outlook for the year ahead. Key financial …
In a move to stimulate lending and combat economic challenges, China announced a forthcoming reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for banks. People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng shared that the RRR will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points on February 5. This strategic decision aims to address various hurdles, including a prolonged …
The percentage growth in the number of health care administrators compared to that in physicians: That tiny barely-visible yellow sliver at the bottom of the graph is the growth in physicians, and the towering Alpine peaks on top of it is the growth in administrators. https://twitter.com/eyeslasho/status/1747677112520110189
by confoundedinterest17 We are closing out the first week of the New Year and 30-year conforming mortgage rates are up slighlty. Mortgage rate GROWTH is now at 8% year-over-year (YoY). While M2 Money growth has died and is down -3% YoY. Bank credit growth has been negative since July 2023 and M2 Money growth has …
CHANGE: Jeff Bezos–backed AI search startup’s CEO says ‘Google is going to be viewed as something that’s legacy and old.’ Founded in August 2022, the startup known as Perplexity aims to challenge Google by offering an AI-based search engine that is “part chatbot and part search engine, offering real-time information and footnotes showing the sources of …
via Mike Shedlock: The welfare state is booming along with social assistance for illegal immigrants. Jobs data from the BLS, chart by Mish Welfare State Surge 2022 vs. 2023 Government: 5.74% 2022 vs 24.92% 2023 Social Assistance: 16.31% 2022 vs 34.11% 2023 Government + Social Assistance: 22.04% 2022 vs 59.02% in 2023 Government employment and Social …
Anybody surprised that „GDP growth“ based on debt fueled construction of ghost cities, idle airports and vacant skyscrapers doesn’t translate into corporate profits? — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) January 1, 2024 The End Phase of High Levels of Chinese Growth. In the 1980s until about 2000, China led the world in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) …
by Ihateshortseller 2015 – 12M 2016 – 16M (39% increase) 2017 – 22.6M (40% increase aka IPO year) 2018 – 28M (21% increase) 2019 – 34M (23% increase) 2020 – 42M (28% increase) 2021 – 47M (10% increase) 2022 – 50M (5% increase) 2023 – 72M (44% increase) $RDFN is growing much faster than Zillow …
Officially : Russia ends the year 2023 as the country with the most sanctions imposed in human history, with 17,937 sanctions. At the same time, Russia’s GDP growth for this year reached 3.5%. pic.twitter.com/6wzJOcqagY — Sprinter Press (@SprinterPress) December 20, 2023 “To apply sanctions against another country is automatically to apply sanctions to oneself” EU …
The latest report from the Federal Reserve reveals a slowdown in U.S. consumer-credit growth for October. Consumer credit expanded at a 1.2% annual rate, a significant drop from the 3% rate observed in September. October saw a total consumer credit increase of $5.2 billion, down from the prior month’s gain of $12.2 billion. Contrary to …
https://twitter.com/WinfieldSmart/status/1736936139418661091 Chinese equities hit 5-year low as doubts grow about decades of stunning growth. Post-COVID recovery disappoints, challenging Beijing to choose between more debt or slower growth in 2024 and beyond. Contrary to expectations, consumers save, foreign investment declines, factories struggle, and property markets face instability, raising concerns about China’s growth model. Some economists draw …
China’s economy is teetering at a “critical stage,” expanding a modest 4.9% in Q3, below the five percent target. The aftermath of draconian Covid measures persists despite their removal in 2022. Surprisingly, an economic model reliant on debt-fueled construction faces challenges. Ghost cities, idle airports, and vacant skyscrapers showcase the limitations of this approach. China’s …
Earnings estimates for #sp500 $spx in 2024 have been flat and have not improved. The entire rally has been based on multiple expansion. Earnings typically trend with inflation expectations. It's not a better fundamental outlook. In fact, GDPNow sees 1.3% real growth in 4Q and… pic.twitter.com/oMAYwROXpC — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) December 7, 2023 The …
by confoundedinterest17 US Real GDP grew at a whopping 5.2% (revision) in Q3. But was it organic growth or simply The Federal Government funding the defense and green energy industies with trillions in spending? One factor has been government spending which grew an unsustainably 4.7% in real terms over the last year. Outside the pandemic, this …
by confoundedinterest17 Despite Biden/KJP’s ridiculous lies about about this Thanksgiving being the 4th “cheapest” in history, inflation while cooling is still way up under Biden. In fact, food prices are up 25% since 2020. Since 2020, US groceries are up 25%, used cars climbed 35% and rents roughly 20%. In 2020, a survey showed a …
by confoundedinterest17 Under Biden’s Reign of Error (or green economic transformation), the US has seen over 8 million illegal immigrants enter the US which is a far greater number than births in the US. In other words, Americans apparently are NOT being born under a bad sign. Hence, the US is seeing the demand for housing …
by mrmrmrj A mere 7 corporate giants are single-handedly generating over 100% of the S&P 500’s profit growth, with a mere 10 stocks shouldering 90% of the market’s gains this year. This high level of dependence on a select few raises red flags, as the fate of these companies now dictates the health of the …
This is shocking: US population growth has collapsed Reaching levels near 0% indicating almost NO growth Current levels have NEVER been seen in 100+ years Even during the Great Depression, population growth bottomed out at around 0.5% In other words, this is the worst population growth setup seen in over 100 years of US history …
Despite Germany’s substantial infusion of state aid into its economy, the nation continues to grapple with recession and experiences the slowest growth rate among its counterparts. https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1718624015755936251
Even during the Great Depression, the population growth rate remained around 0.5%. This current scenario represents the bleakest population growth outlook in over a century of US history! This is shocking: US population growth has plummeted Reaching levels near 0% → NO growth! Current levels have never been seen since 1901 Even during the Great …
by confoundedinterest17 Biden’s leading “economist” Lael Brainard loves to brag about the strong economy under Bidenomics, and then pulled a brain freeze when asked about crashing savings rates as consumers struggle with inflation. The good news? One of The Fed’s favorite inflation indicators – Core PCE Deflator – slowed to 3.7% YoY in September (its lowest …
The apparent contradiction of +4.9% GDP growth amid concerning economic indicators raises questions about the true source of this growth. Notably, spiking continuing claims in unemployment and the drop in UPS shares, driven by decreased package demand and a collapse in U.S. demand for cardboard boxes, underscore the uncertainty surrounding the reported economic expansion. With …
by confoundedinterest17 Back in red? As US fiscal policy deteriorates further thanks to endless Federal spending (not to mention seemingly endless wars under Biden and Nobel Peace Prize winner Obama), we are seeing pain in the bank lending business. Commercial and industrial (C&I) loan lending standards is tightening (blue line) to levels typically seen in recessions. …
Wage growth is dropping fast. Down to 3.9% YoY for American Workers. 📉 That is now the lowest rate of wage growth since the pandemic started. And also below the 60-year average. Bad news for US Economy & Housing Market. ❌ pic.twitter.com/YgomPshuyf — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) October 6, 2023 Americans are struggling to make ends …
All major buckets of jobs are showing declining growth. The labor market slowdown has been extremely slow, particularly through the cyclical sectors that have experienced labor hoarding issues. Interestingly, service sector jobs growth has cooled sharply in recent months. pic.twitter.com/ffcIIbzpUm — Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) October 4, 2023 How many name changes will they go through …
by confoundedinterest17 Thanks to rampant Federal spending and overstimulus by The Federal Reserve, US housing prices are simply unaffordable for many. Particularly since the Covid epidemic (Wuhan China Flu). The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported 1.0% annual change in July, up from a 0% change in …