The apparent contradiction of +4.9% GDP growth amid concerning economic indicators raises questions about the true source of this growth. Notably, spiking continuing claims in unemployment and the drop in UPS shares, driven by decreased package demand and a collapse in U.S. demand for cardboard boxes, underscore the uncertainty surrounding the reported economic expansion. With U.S. GDP heavily reliant on consumption and real disposable income registering a -1% decline, it becomes imperative to identify the underlying drivers of this growth.
Nothing screams 4.9% growth like UPS shares hitting 52 week lows on drop in packages and collapse in US demand for cardboard boxes.
Real disposable personal income is declining.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DSPIC96
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1717519400931070395
h/t j_stars