Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Michael If commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed for months, we will witness a global food crisis on a scale that many experts would have once considered to be unthinkable. Over the past couple of weeks, there has been much written about how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has …
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson on RUSSIA'S WINS as a result of the US-Israel war on Iran: "[It's not] just the oil. [Russia's] got liquid natural gas… and fertilizer… [The US and Israel] have shored up the foundation of the Russian economy." pic.twitter.com/W2dqabq0Zj — Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) March 16, 2026 Iowa farmer: This fertilizer shortage …
via Oilprice: The Iran war is disrupting the petrocapital cycle—the flow of oil revenues from Gulf producers into global financial markets—raising the risk of a global credit crunch. Ongoing attacks, the Strait of Hormuz closure, and financial center instability (e.g., Dubai) are weakening Gulf economies and limiting their ability to recycle capital into global markets. …
by Michael A worst-case scenario could be just weeks away. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been essentially paralyzed by the war with Iran, and there is a lot of speculation that the Houthis could soon bring commercial traffic through the Red Sea to a screeching halt. If such a scenario actually materializes, it …
by Martin Armstrong QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Are you familiar with Professor Easterbrook of Western Washington University who agrees with you and is projecting a decline in temperatures for the next three decades? It seems that those who simply claim that it has been getting warmer live in a bubble of biased news. One even said to me that it …
Iran has permitted a Turkish‑owned vessel to transit the Strait of Hormuz after negotiations, a significant yet limited breakthrough in one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes. Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu said the Turkish ship was allowed to pass because it had stopped at an Iranian port, suggesting Tehran is using port calls as …
The Trump administration has now temporarily allowed Russian oil already at sea to be sold, freeing roughly 100–128 million barrels into the market. Oil had surged past $100 per barrel in the past week because of disruptions from the Iran war, blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on tankers. The move may …
by Michael Global financial markets are starting to shake, and it is because of what is happening in the Middle East. At this stage, every day is a rollercoaster ride for investors, and that is not likely to change any time soon. The Iranians have paralyzed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and trying to …
This morning’s developments are worse than most people realize. Iran is not just sitting back after initial strikes. Its military has openly declared that any ship tied to the United States, Israel or their allies passing through the Strait of Hormuz could be targeted, a move that effectively turns what used to be the world’s …
Breaking News: Thirty-two countries will release 400 million barrels of oil to help shore up global supply as the war with Iran rages on. https://t.co/H5l2ibXxKG — The New York Times (@nytimes) March 11, 2026 The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that member countries had unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their …
– 🇻🇳 Vietnam told people to WORK FROM HOME because they’re running out of fuel – 🇧🇩 Bangladesh started fuel RATIONING – limits on how much you can pump per vehicle – 🇮🇳 Asia-wide petrol prices surging – traders can’t even find alternative supply – ✈️ Thousands of flights CANCELLED — airlines rerouting everything, carrying …
by confoundedinterest17 Global uncertainty hits an ALL-TIME HIGH. Higher than Covid, the 2008 financial crisis, and the dot-com crash COMBINED. You know what that means!
JUST IN: Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the worst global energy crisis since the 1970s, WSJ reports. — BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) March 9, 2026 Factcheck: Yes, per WSJ and shipping trackers like MarineTraffic/Reuters: tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has virtually halted amid the Iran conflict (down ~90% since early March), …
The world is facing a massive surge in prices, and the latest developments suggest that inflation is entering a far more dangerous phase than most people realize. Venezuela’s inflation exploded to 475 percent in 2025, the highest in the world last year. Food costs soared 532 percent, rent jumped 340 percent, and healthcare expenses skyrocketed …
“Everybody who has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure,” Kaabi explained. “If they don’t, they are at some point going to pay the liability for that legally, and that’s their choice.” …
A rapidly escalating war in the Middle East is now colliding with one of the most fragile global economic environments in decades, and the early warning signs of a major financial shock are already beginning to appear. Most people still see these developments as separate headlines. But they are not separate at all. When you …
by Michael If you have not already done so, I would recommend filling up your vehicle, because it looks like the price of gasoline is going to go much higher. At the very beginning of this war with Iran, the price of oil didn’t rise too much because many investors were anticipating a quick victory …
Morgan Stanley is slashing about 3% of its global workforce — roughly 2,500 jobs — across its key divisions, as the Wall Street giant realigns priorities amid a banner year for profits, sources familiar with the matter have told The Post. The cuts hit the Ted Pick-led lender’s investment banking, trading, and wealth management units, …
The dumbest call of all time was Wall Street telling investors to buy global stocks ex-U.S. ahead of this war – which everyone knew was coming. Global stocks ex-U.S. have far more risk exposure to this oil crisis than U.S. companies. But now U.S. investors have far more risk… pic.twitter.com/rrp7HR8Pot — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) March 5, …
Iran war live: Israel orders southern Beirut evacuation; Azerbaijan hit by drones Azerbaijan warned it would respond after it said Iranian drones flew across its border and injured four people on Thursday morning. “These attacks will not remain unanswered,” the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry said in a statement. Iran War Maps: Tracking the Mideast Conflict A …
by Michael You can negotiate an end to a military conflict between two nations, but you can’t negotiate an end to global jihad. The radical Shiite Muslims that rule Iran are full of rage, and what they want more than anything else is revenge. In response to the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, 3 different grand …
Mac10 @SuburbanDrone This is the story of the stock market year to date as viewed by the equal weight NDX and the World ex-U.S.: Back in late January, U.S. stocks got hit by AI panic – The fear that AI was going to implode sector after sector including many Tech stocks. So Wall Street pundits …
🇰🇷 Korea: -7.24% — circuit breaker triggered 🇯🇵 Japan: -6% — worst panic in months 🇪🇬 Egypt: -5.44% — freefall 🇹🇷 Turkey: -5%+ — banks down -7.4% 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: -4%+ — oil money can’t save them 🇩🇪 Germany: -4% — Europe cracking 🇮🇳 India: -3.37% — 2,743 points gone in hours 🇬🇧 UK: -2.6% …
John Ʌ Konrad V @johnkonrad This is potentially the biggest Iran story nobody is talking about: the global insurance market may be heading toward a systemic crisis. Here’s why… Most people don’t realize London isn’t just a financial center it’s THE center of global insurance. Lloyd’s underwrites ~40% of the world’s marine cargo. Ship sinks, …
SungHoon Lee, IQ 276 @sungleeiq Nobody is telling you how FUCKED the internet situation actually is right now. IRAN just got BOMBED. AGAIN. They are going to hit back. And the most devastating thing they can hit is NOT a military base. It is 5 FIBER OPTIC CABLES sitting on the ocean floor. Those cables …
The Strait of Hormuz crisis explained: What it means for global shipping The escalating war in the Middle East has ratcheted up fears of prolonged disruption to global trade via key maritime corridors like the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Container shipping giants have suspended operations through the strategically vital Strait of …
by Michael I have been thinking about nuclear war a lot lately. I realize that may sound a bit morbid, but considering where global events are taking us, I think that everyone should be considering what we could end up facing if we do not reverse course. Scientists have warned us that even in a …
Now it’s Jamie Dimon’s turn, JP Morgan’s highly visible CEO is the latest to make the 2008 comparison. Following up last year’s cockroach quip this time saying a lot of people in the financial industry have done dumb things. But here’s the thing, markets all over the world are starting to price it. The worry …
🚨TRUMP RAISES GLOBAL TARIFF TO 15% Donald Trump announced he will immediately increase the global tariff rate from 10% to 15%, following what he called a flawed and “anti-American” United States Supreme Court decision. He said the move targets countries he accuses of… pic.twitter.com/woHVkzzRMH — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 21, 2026 German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, …