Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Last time rates ran hot like this, equities didn’t handle it well and liquidity tightened quick. 5% on the 30yr is wild. damn were pricing in a serious fiscal shit show pic.twitter.com/8ZHdiU8N7c — ZeroMazed (@ZeroMazed) April 29, 2026 The bond market is collapsing again. The 10Y Note Yield is now silently back above 4.40%, the …
The world is moving back toward a debt level that used to be associated with the aftermath of major wars. According to the IMF, global public debt reached 93.9% of GDP in 2025 and is projected to hit 100% by 2029. What makes that more striking is that this is not the result of one …
Turkey and Argentina used rate pressure management to ease fiscal strain but ended up amplifying inflation and currency instability through loss of market confidence. The former US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen says lowering rates to reduce debt service costs can lead to inflation getting out of control. She compared the United States today to …
President Trump has reshaped the country’s economic policies, but the outlook for the budget remains dire. In the first year of his second term, President Trump has tried to radically reshape America’s economy. He has slashed taxes, raised tariffs to their highest levels in almost a century, unilaterally canceled federal spending, pushed down immigration and …
via notayesmanseconomics It is a theme of these times that we see Western governments struggling. We started the week with the effective appointment of a new Japanese Prime Minister and we also had the fall of a French Prime Minister accompanied by a desperate attempts by Prime Minister Macron to keep him. The reality according …
The United States faces an economic fault line few are willing to stare at, yet the cracks are widening visibly under policies that appear deliberately reckless, with consequences that could cascade across every sector of daily life and national finance, destabilizing supply chains, investment confidence, and ordinary household budgets simultaneously. President Trump has warned that …
When investors flee currency for a tangible asset, it signals fear of fiscal collapse and unchecked debt. It's really unusual for 30-year Treasury yield to rise in a Fed easing cycle. It's even more unusual for 30-year yield to rise with all the world's major central banks in an easing cycle. This tells you monetary …
via notayesmanseconomics It is time once again to take a look at the situation regarding precious metals and let me open by congratulating Gold Bugs. BREAKING: Gold officially hits $3,600/oz for the first time in history. Gold is now up +33% YTD, more than 3.5 TIMES the S&P 500’s return. ( The Kobeissi Letter) In …
The economy just got punched. $31 billion in tariffs hit in a single month. August didn’t end in prosperity or surplus. It ended in extraction. Every dollar was drained from consumers and corporations, funneled straight into the Treasury’s vault. The machinery of wealth didn’t grind forward, it was siphoned sideways. Importantly, tariffs are being paid …
US economy teeters on path to Japan-style stagnation! Take a close look at this chart because this is what’s going to happen in the future in the US and in any other country that will continue to persist on a similar irresponsible monetary and fiscal path like the one Japan entered and never left for …
Despite the worst start ever to a fiscal year, several key metrics have really turned around w/ Jun tax receipts up 12.9% and outlays down 7.0%, resulting in a surplus; last month was the first time this fiscal year that federal gov’t spending was below $500B: N.B.: Those are year-over-year increases — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. …
Japan is at the heart of the global rise in long-term yields. To be honest, I'm surprised the rise has been allowed to be as rapid as it has. At 240% debt to GDP, Japan really can't allow long-term yields to keep rising the way they have. This is where fiscal dominance is acute. pic.twitter.com/a118IbKVk8 …
https://twitter.com/NickWoolos/status/1925341976938893319 Ray Dalio says we should be afraid of the bond market. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) May 22, 2025 The problem with the swelling US budget deficit is that there aren't a lot of paths towards shrinking it other than cutting spending. But we've seen practically no will to do that any appreciable scale across many …
So far the new admin has done little to reign in spending despite all the discussion about DOGE in the first few months. Not all that surprising given congress extended '25 spending at current law. pic.twitter.com/QRX5ejWpES — Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 12, 2025 They promised discipline, then threw it out the window. While headlines screamed …
China didn’t just become a global powerhouse by chance. It climbed the economic ladder by studying and replicating what the West built through generations of risk-taking, innovation, and painful trial and error. It offered up a billion people willing to work for a fraction of Western wages, and Wall Street jumped at the chance to …
The United States is running on borrowed time—literally. The national debt now sits at a staggering $36.7 trillion, and every single day, another $8 billion is piled on. That’s not a typo. Eight billion dollars a day. This isn’t just bad bookkeeping; it’s a slow-motion catastrophe. Right now, the country is paying $2.4 trillion in …
via notayesmanseconomics The start of the second Presidential term of Donald Trump has seen quite a few policy changes. But there is one area where things are looking rather familiar so let us take a look. Here is the Financial Times from earlier. The US House of Representatives has passed a budget blueprint that calls …
by Mike Maharrey Every month, we report on the massive budget deficits. Most people yawn and move along. The reality is they don’t view overspending and debt as a big problem. After all, the debt has been growing for decades and nothing bad has happened. But the problem with kicking the can down the road is …
by confoundedinterest17 This is the worst start to a fiscal year EVER: – Spending is up 10.9% – Receipts are down 2.2% – FYTD deficit up 39.4% at $711 billion They’re handing Trump a ticking time bomb! Speaking of Biden handing a ticking time bomb (according to Zero Hedge), after rising for 5 straight months, …
Where were the Bond Vigilantes during the Biden Administration? Now that it's over, they suddenly blame Trump while ignoring Yellen, Brainard, and Biden's embrace of MMT and the idea that deficits don’t matter. We’re drowning in debt at levels reminiscent of a world war! It’s… — James E. Thorne (@DrJStrategy) January 14, 2025 If you're …
by James Hickman In the calendar year of 2024, the government racked up a $1.74 trillion deficit. But the national debt actually increased by an even higher $2.23 trillion from January 1, 2024 through December 31, 2024. That’s a lot of money spent for a Congress that never even passed a budget! The entire year, …
“_Microsoft expects to spend $80 billion in fiscal 2025 on the construction of data centers that can handle artificial intelligence workloads, the company said in a Friday blog post. Over half of Microsoft’s $80 billion in spending will take place in the U.S., Microsoft Vice Chair and President Brad Smith wrote._” https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/03/microsoft-expects-to-spend-80-billion-on-ai-data-centers-in-fy-2025.html
by confoundedinterest17 It is the Biden Boogie! Joe Biden is leaving the Presidency with an attrocious record. While saying he is leaving Trump with the strongest economy in modern times, the is actually leaving Trump and Republicans with a hollow shell for an economy. It is the final punch in the jaw from an angry, failed …
BREAKING: Total US public debt hits a record $36.17 TRILLION, up $1 trillion over the last 105 days. US federal debt has risen by an average of $9.5 billion per day over the last 105 days. At the current pace, total US debt would hit $40 trillion for the first time in history by February …
It's either going to work or it's not. Here is the alternative https://t.co/cHZA2wHnPB pic.twitter.com/LMEI4tISZL — zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 13, 2024 US Deficit Explodes: Blowout October According to the latest Treasury data released today, in the first month of fiscal 2025 (October), the US spent a massive $584.2 billion, a 24.3% increase from the prior year, …
History may not repeat, but it certainly rhymes. Trump is being handed a ticking time bomb… pic.twitter.com/yeRbdseDTy — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) November 13, 2024 My best guess is Trump is going to be forced to slow things down by the bond market. See Bill Clinton in 1992 if you wanna see the power of …
The gold reserves of Italy and France have each risen in value by roughly $85bn (£65) over the last two years. Lucky them. The Italians never accepted the “end of history” ideology, the beguiling notion at the end of the Cold War that there were no longer serious enemies and that bullion had become superfluous, …
The U.S. has added $104 billion in debt in just one day, bringing the total to $655 billion in a little over five weeks since September 26. This alarming pace suggests an annualized rate of nearly $6.8 trillion if the trend continues, showcasing an accelerating fiscal dominance that borders on absurdity. As of October 2024, …
The Cato Institute has released its much-anticipated 2024 Fiscal Report Card on America’s Governors, and the results are both revealing and polarizing. Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds earned the highest score for her fiscal policies, while Minnesota’s Tim Walz found himself at the bottom of the rankings. This report scrutinizes the fiscal record of each governor, …
Joni Teves, precious metals strategist at UBS Investment Bank, says macroeconomic factors are what “ultimately” drive gold prices despite rising geopolitical tensions. Teves says the “expectation that the US fiscal deficit is going to deteriorate, regardless almost of who wins the elections, is seen to be positive for gold over the medium- to long-term.” She …