Despite the worst start ever to a fiscal year, several key metrics have really turned around w/ Jun tax receipts up 12.9% and outlays down 7.0%, resulting in a surplus; last month was the first time this fiscal year that federal gov’t spending was below $500B:
N.B.: Those are year-over-year increases
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) July 11, 2025
Earlier tariff front running explains some of the import duties surge (larger tax base, not higher tax rate) but much of the increase is from new or higher tariffs; FYTD, customs duties are 94.3% larger than same period last FY and 70.7% above full FY forecast, w/ 3 months to go: pic.twitter.com/Y8an9Bf9gY
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) July 11, 2025
US had a budget surplus of $27.01 billion in June, compared to a deficit of $71 billion, due to tariffs, per CNBC
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 11, 2025
Rather amazing that despite soaring interest cost on the federal debt, Jun saw a surplus b/c of larger tax receipts, including higher tariff revenues: pic.twitter.com/dw22STwP6z
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) July 11, 2025