Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The world stands on the precipice of a daunting financial crisis as global debt skyrockets, reaching an astonishing $235 trillion. Over the past 15 years, this sum has surged by 32%, propelled by the allure of low borrowing costs. It is a ticking time bomb that has pushed countries, including economic giants like the U.S. …
by confoundedinterest17 Appartently, Joe Biden and fellow big spenders in Washington DC, Mordor on The Potomac, don’t care about fiscal discipline. With seemingly endless spending of wars (Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the invasion at our southern border, and inane “green” spending, Janet Yellen and the US Treasury will be auctioning off $776 billion of debt in the …
Higher US debt deficits can potentially contribute to inflation if the government resorts to printing more money to cover its deficit, which can increase the money supply and, in turn, lead to rising prices. Prominent figures like former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and investor Stanley Druckenmiller are sounding alarms about the unprecedented economic challenge the …
by confoundedinterest17 Bidenflation, a name for the combination of reckless Federal spending and excess monetary stimulus related to Covid, is still causing severe pain for the middle class. The massive Federal spending splurge is still working its way through the economy and causing distortions, like surging new home sales despite higher mortgage rates. Some background …
The ongoing property crisis in China is taking an epic turn, with the nation’s real estate index plummeting back to 2009 levels, marking an approximate 80% drop from its peak. This alarming situation prompted Chinese President Xi to make his first-ever visit to the central bank, signaling a shift towards a much-needed fiscal stimulus. China …
THE FEDERAL DEFICIT IS EVEN BIGGER THAN IT LOOKS (WSJ) When it comes to the size of the federal government’s annual deficit, appearances can be deceiving. The gap between spending and revenue for fiscal year 2023, which ended on Sept. 30, was $1.7 trillion, the Congressional… pic.twitter.com/E4PeXR6vok — FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) October 13, 2023 Real Time …
by Chris Black Border Patrol, CBP and other assorted agencies have encountered a staggering 3.1 million people at the southern border (https://www.fairus.org/legislation/biden-immigration-border-policy/border-security/cbp-posts-record-number-border) of the United States through fiscal year 2023. People are crossing from all over the globe. (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/smugglers-are-steering-migrants-into-the-hot-arizona-desert-posing-new-border-patrol-challenges). Chinese, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Haitians and of course throngs of South and Central Americans. 62.6% of those …
Everyone’s waiting to discover the level at which yields spur financial instability. From @kitjuckes this morning: “For now, the FX market is a bystander, watching Treasuries and waiting for them to break something.” — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) October 3, 2023 via Bloomberg: The slide in Treasuries has been excessive given recent economic data and Federal …
So many economies around the world are in completely opposite situations. Some central banks are cutting rates, some are pausing, and others are hiking. The next few months are going to be really interesting. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 28, 2023 Eurozone credit growth …
Since the debt ceiling crisis, the US has already added nearly $1.5 trillion in debt. Meanwhile, tax receipts are down sharply this year. We are spending more and making less, a recipe for disaster. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 6, 2023 US Government To …
via Mike Shedlock: “Everybody who reads the newspaper knows that the United States has a very serious long-term fiscal problem,” said Fitch in its downgrade of US debt. Government expenditures and receipts through 2023 Q1 from the BEA, chart by Mish Government Expenditures and Receipts Notes The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) numbers are incomplete …
Following the COVID era, we have entered a period of fiscal dominance among major developed economies. Hence, the escalating debt burden is already near historical levels and compounding at an alarming pace. — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) July 22, 2023 Quantitative tightening policies are the central banks' own version of an illusionary “debt ceiling”, a …
The US government interest payments on the Federal debt are now higher than the annual defense spending. This is likely the initial stages of a trend, and if no solutions are implemented, other components of the fiscal agenda may soon be constrained by the escalating cost of… pic.twitter.com/hBY2haxNyG — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) July 20, …
by BoatSurfer600 Source: Zen Second Life