Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
(Bloomberg) — The next US administration “must grapple with widening budget deficits,” warned Moody’s Ratings in a report published Tuesday, nearly a year after it announced a negative outlook for the country’s sovereign credit profile. “The administration’s tax and spending policies will affect the size of future budget deficits and the expected decline in US …
This is absolutely mind-boggling! The U.S. government has normalized running a $2 trillion deficit. They better hope there's never an economic downturn, or things could get catastrophic… Oh wait… pic.twitter.com/xZjW4JZkKm — The Cytadel (@thecytadel) September 12, 2024 Gold rising with rising US real rates conveys a simple message that has surprised many US investors but …
Founding Father’s fear has come true: Federal debt burden now is the greatest threat to the U.S. economy, national security and social stability. In the late 1780s, the finances of the United States were in disarray. Revolutionary War debts incurred by the Continental Congress and former colonies were defaulting, and the democratic experiment in the …
It is worse than that. Even their advantages have a downside. Unlike the US most EU countries have exercised good debt management and have long average maturities. A higher for longer scenario is not their friend as debt gets rolled over. #EU #France #debt #deficit — Jacobo Pascual (@jacobotweetsnow) July 16, 2024 Current Fiscal Deficit: …
🚨 Godfather of MMT is now conceding to fiscal dominance ⚠️ It's hilarious bc Modern Monetary Theory says gov borrowing and spending has no negative effects. BUT now that rates are higher and gov has to borrow to pay UST yield to people who can spend it… NOW all of the… https://t.co/PhzgVX2vU3 pic.twitter.com/0WsWuazInm — CJK …
The CBO fiscal budget releases have pointed to two write downs of EIDL loans in the past 13-14 months. https://t.co/JR3ZRjRkJI — Neely (@NeelyTamminga) July 10, 2024 What’s curious to me @FreightAlley is that most did not have to put up personal guarantees for the EIDL loan, unlike a typical SBA. Loans < $200K didn’t require …
Can someone explain how fiscal deficits in Europe will be reduced as we go forward given accelerating deindustrialization and upcoming pensions and healthcare entitlements demographics crisis in Germany, Italy and Spain? pic.twitter.com/ZTpb3ctJbG — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) July 4, 2024 pic.twitter.com/Mpxprzyo1T — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) July 4, 2024
via notayesmanseconomics We have seldom been in a time where there has been so much confusion and uncertainty about the US economy. We came into 2024 with the Conference Board leafing indicators having suggested a recession on the cards and then saw that annual economic growth had been around 3%. More recently the two surveys …
Japan's fiscal + monetary foundations are cracking. Everyone should be aware how a breakage will affect global capital flows and their family's wealth. $JPY pic.twitter.com/TCOWHUeGCt — IceCap (@IceCapGlobal) May 31, 2024 It looks like the #BOJ (Directly or through proxy bonks) is back at playing with currency swaps to tame the raise of the $JPY …
It's hard to understate just how unprecedented the scale of US fiscal stimulus is at the moment. Not only is the deficit massive for a non-crisis period, but its financing is almost entirely via very short-term issuance, which has never been the case before in a non-crisis time. pic.twitter.com/3mQWWPb7ds — Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) May 30, …
US government interest payment has virtually been a straight line up since 2020 Despite crossing $1 TRILLION, this debt crisis keeps getting worse pic.twitter.com/YE8v8uLZHG — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) May 18, 2024 2/ What matters here is not overall US government debt but rather the balance of payments. If a country runs a trade deficit this …
by confoundedinterest17 In the time (dis)honored tradition of Haruhiko Kuroda, the former governor of the Bank of Japan, Japan likely conducted its second currency intervention this week, current account figures from the central bank suggest, in another sign of the government’s intensified battle to prop up the yen. Tokyo’s latest entry into the market was likely around …
via notayesmanseconomics Today is Federal Reserve day when just after 7pm (they are usually late) we learn the interest-rate decision of Jerome Powell and his colleagues. On the surface not much is expected which is highlighted by the front page of the Financial Times not mentioning it at all as I type this.Yet underneath the …
The US faces a fiscal dilemma as record spending, deficits, and debt levels clash with inflationary green energy policies, potentially sparking a conflict between the Federal Reserve and government. Key points: Record non-crisis spending, deficits, and debt levels pose fiscal challenges with no end in sight. Green energy policies, like those in Germany, have led …
And above is just the public debt. No bueno pic.twitter.com/4ZMzHEeLi7 — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) April 23, 2024
pic.twitter.com/mVWFJUr514 — Ain't Nonya (@aint_nonya) April 17, 2024
Here's an interesting trend: More than 60% of US federal spending is now deemed as "mandatory." This is more than DOUBLE the amount deemed as mandatory in the 1960s. Meanwhile, interest expense now accounts for 11% of the budget and is expected to reach 14% by 2029. In… pic.twitter.com/GqG2npgBT9 — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April …
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan and Joao Gomes, vice dean of Wharton, warn of an impending fiscal crisis due to escalating US national debt. They call for prioritizing debt payment, tightening fiscal policies, and a fundamental change in government budget management. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts public debt could reach 166% of the …
The federal budget hurtles towards disaster, stuck on autopilot with spending spiraling out of control. Even drastic cuts won’t suffice. Inflating our way out is futile; mandatory spending is tied to inflation. There’s no cash for green energy ventures, welfare, or shady deals abroad. The bill is looming, and bond market tremors hint at impending …
The Incredibly Ballooning US Government Debt Spikes by $1 Trillion in 15 Weeks to $34 Trillion.Interest payments threatening to eat up half the tax receipts may be the only disciplinary force left to deal with Congresshttps://t.co/4qD6tEfp9E pic.twitter.com/WlTbn3Q5L4 — Wolf Richter (@wolfofwolfst) January 3, 2024 The alarming surge in US government debt, ballooning by a staggering …
$7.6 trillion of US government debt will mature in the next year, adding pressure on rates A whopping $7.6 trillion in interest-bearing US public debt will mature within a year, Apollo’s chief economist said in September. That represents 31% of all outstanding US government debt, adding upward pressure on rates. That’s still below 2020, when …
by confoundedinterest17 Yes, the US is engulfed in a fiscal inferno! US government debt is now bigger than the US economy. This was unseen until 2012 when debt surpassed GDP for the first time. In addition to almost $34 trillion in debt from our crazy spending, out-of-control government, we are on the hook for almost $213 TRILLION …
by confoundedinterest17 It‘s Biden’s Fiscal Inferno! Insane open borders, insane green spending, wars in Ukraine, Gaza and growing restlessness around Taiwan. Inflation. And a demented 81-year old President in charge. The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $381 billion so far into the 2024 fiscal year, which represents a 13% increase from this same time …
by confoundedinterest17 Both the US Federal government and California’s government are facing a fiscal inferno. Thanks to a softening economy and inane fiscal policies. At the macro level, we see that The Federal government has gone wild spending money and borrowing it. Much more than businesses and households. Biden’s wild spending reduces the degrees of freedom that …
by confoundedinterest17 You might as well face it, markets are “addicted to gov.” Government monetary interference, that is. Government money printing and massive Federal spending. According to Goldman calculations, $350BN of liquidity (in USD terms) was added in November from the G4 central banks + the PBOC was nothing short of a fire hose. In fact, this was the third …
The U.S. narrowly avoids recession through exorbitant fiscal spending, raising questions about the sustainability of such measures. The ideological divide on economic policies, particularly Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), sparks debates on the feasibility of high fiscal deficits, leaving a lingering uncertainty about the future of economic stability. Exorbitant fiscal spending is probably the main reason …
Likely you’ve seen this but let’s hit it one more time. People can’t fathom the amount of debt the country is in and this is a little visual aid to help. DISCLAIMER: Numbers may not be up to date but it’s the thought that counts! h/t Txstyleguy
#JustDarioDaily 🚨 $NVDA (PONZI) “LIES” UNDER $NVDA NOSE 🚨 I know a couple of things here and there about running a company, from work and direct experience. One thing is how easy it is to "grow" your revenues when your clients aren't going to pay for the goods you deliver.… https://t.co/Tj3uTl2KAC pic.twitter.com/7mJ3f1f5nX — JustDario 🏊♂️ …
Central banks are stuck, and the way governments handle money is causing trouble. Many people who suggest where to invest don’t have much gold in their plans right now. But, history shows that big money sources are starting to change and invest more in gold, making it a really good opportunity to consider. My thesis …