5% on the 30yr is wild. We are pricing in a serious fiscal shit show

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Last time rates ran hot like this, equities didn’t handle it well and liquidity tightened quick.

The bond market is collapsing again.

The 10Y Note Yield is now silently back above 4.40%, the same exact level that has led to multiple market interventions by President Trump.

Simply put, the US economy cannot afford the 10Y Note Yield rising substantially above current levels.

As we saw in April 2025 and March 2026, President Trump is highly attentive to the 4.50% level on the 10Y Note Yield, which we previously labeled as our “policy pivot” point.

At the current pace, we could see 4.50%+ within a matter of days.

Meanwhile, US oil prices are above $108/barrel, gas prices are up another +5% today, and 30Y mortgage rates are at 6.50%+.

The bond market will soon become the center of attention.

Stay ahead of the trend.

Ray Dalio warns that Kevin Warsh cutting rates would be a mistake.

We’re in a stagflationary setup:

• Inflation is still above target, with more pressure coming from oil
• Cutting now would destroy Fed credibility and look politically driven

“Any objective person will tell you you’re not going to cut rates now.”

The market isn’t pricing this in.

That kind of uncertainty usually ends one way: sharp downside.