Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The most interesting part of the article isn’t the $200 subscription potentially costing OpenAI thousands. It’s that agentic workflows can consume up to 1,000x more tokens than a normal prompt. A $200 ChatGPT subscription could cost OpenAI $14,000 if you actually used it to its full potential “Part of the pressure comes from how AI …
For years the tech world acted like whoever owned the most chips would dominate AI. China is now showing that smarter software and lower costs might matter just as much. By making AI models dramatically cheaper to run, they’re putting pressure on Silicon Valley’s massive hardware heavy approach and raising questions about whether all that …
Last time rates ran hot like this, equities didn’t handle it well and liquidity tightened quick. 5% on the 30yr is wild. damn were pricing in a serious fiscal shit show pic.twitter.com/8ZHdiU8N7c — ZeroMazed (@ZeroMazed) April 29, 2026 The bond market is collapsing again. The 10Y Note Yield is now silently back above 4.40%, the …
DOJ Prepares Case Over Egg Prices That Didn’t Add Up Less than a month after Farm Action called for an investigation, the DOJ opened one. Now it appears headed to court. The Department of Justice is preparing to file an antitrust case against some of the largest egg producers in the country, according to new …
BREAKING: DDR5 memory prices crash up to 30% after Google unveiled TurboQuant. Google TurboQuant cuts AI memory usage to 1/6, raising concerns about memory demand. Memory prices are up 106% since 2024 lows, but are now falling. 32GB DDR5 on Amazon fell from about $490 to $379.99, while 16GB DDR5 fell from about $260 to …
United Airlines plans for oil hitting $175 a barrel and staying above $100 next year as industry faces worst shock since COVID The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has delivered the biggest disruption to the airline industry since the COVID-19 pandemic, and United is bracing for a future where oil prices remain high through 2027. …
Market is pricing in a big TACO move from Trump who dramatically underestimated the consequences of war with Iran — Ross Hendricks (@Ross__Hendricks) March 2, 2026 The silver lining for Iran in all this is that this war will very likely final explode the Moron (AI) Bubble. Which means Trump will TACO time sooner than …
AI is nothing without #DATA. A stringent DATA policy will kill anthropic overnight. It can even go bankrupt. It will happen soon. No country wants anthropic as it will cause job losses. No 1 wants that.So no DATA, no ML/ No advanced real time AI. — max (@BmaxBull) February 24, 2026 Seems like Claude is …
So, I mainly shop Walmart for the same cheap food buys – Walmart brand eggs, cheese, bread, English muffins, dairy, produce, saltines, butter, etc. Last week I went and noticed nearly all my cheap thrills are 25 to 50% higher. I also buy the ground beef or pork in the square 1 lb package. They …
Dotcom vibes for sure but bonds eroding is the real tell. Feels like nobody's pricing risk properly right now. $TLT getting hammered lately — StockStorm (@StockStormX) October 24, 2025 America’s stock market is now a playground for the rich, Goldman Sachs, $GS, has said. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 24, 2025 How is CPI “cool” at …
6 doesn’t sound like a lot. But an additional 6 percent demand for houses drives up costs more than 6%. 6% is a lot. Adding 5% more cars to a city can make traffic 25% worse. Same situation. 6% can take a buyer’s market and make it a sellers one. It’s a big deal. On …
oh no … China's going to sell us EVs subsidized by their tax payers to our tax payers … I'm sure this is going to hurt our tax payers, would somebody please think of the children — John Huang (@zzjohnh) October 12, 2025 This is only in response to us getting impact at the US …
via notayesmanseconomics This week has opened with some sobering news for La Belle France as late on Friday we were told this. Fitch Ratings – Frankfurt am Main – 12 Sep 2025: FitchRatings has downgraded France’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘A+’ from ‘AA-‘. The Outlook is Stable. This is hardly a surprise …
UnitedHealth Group is not just under review. It is under federal criminal investigation, and the scope keeps growing. What started as questions over Medicare Advantage billing has now expanded into OptumRx’s prescription management services and the way the company reimburses physicians. “The investigation is looking at how OptumRx negotiates drug prices and reimburses pharmacies,”reported Bloomberg,noting …
S&P 500 hits frothy 39 P/E as markets soar in historic rebound but past peaks signal danger ahead If the credit market was pricing this in interest rates would be over 10%. The problem is everything is being ignored. https://t.co/5SPicZHZpp — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) July 29, 2025 Linkhttps://t.co/DrQuoW85rw pic.twitter.com/Fk04MoJMv8 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) July 30, …
The bond market doesn’t shout. It signals. And right now, it’s sending a message no one in Washington wants to hear. Credit markets are quietly pricing in a six-level downgrade to U.S. sovereign debt. That would drop the country’s rating to BBB, just one rung above junk status. Not a theory. Not a warning. It’s …
Dynamic pricing is hitting grocery store shelves. He says he’s watched the prices change Not only do the prices change but they notify you there’s another 10% added at checkout People are already breaking them Bill Gates Microsoft has contracts for these grocery store pricing… pic.twitter.com/HwIzj7vICw — Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) June 13, 2025
I don't know if we'll ever get this type of correction, but this support line would represent a -90% peak-to-trough correction if it ever happens. pic.twitter.com/oGnwqwjCRZ — Curtis (@curtis90335) May 30, 2025 https://coastaljournal.substack.com/p/the-hunger-games-of-inflation?utm_source=app-post-stats-page&r=18thb9&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
BREAKING 🚨: United States Credit markets are currently pricing in a 6-level credit downgrade for the United States, which would give it a rating of BBB, just a smidge above investment grade 👀 pic.twitter.com/WlwiP5IN6p — Barchart (@Barchart) May 21, 2025 Jamie Dimon says he's not a buyer of credit today. Warns of a major downturn …
⚠️BREAKING: *U.S. Q1 GDP FALLS -0.3%, EST. 0.2%; PREV. 2.4% 🇺🇸🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/mahT0YOWbX — Investing.com (@Investingcom) April 30, 2025 Breaking Q1 GDP first look. -.3% vs -.2% exp. Recession? Pricing index 3.7% vs 3.2% expectations Stagflation? Oof 🤦♂️ — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 30, 2025 Yields up. Stocks getting REKT pic.twitter.com/ZVvzwrx8hX — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April …
1/ Container ships from China to US down 30%+ already. This isn't a far-off risk – it's happening NOW and will ripple through supply chains within weeks Container departures literally falling off a cliff since tariffs announced pic.twitter.com/Wb6GQz0iUP — junkbondinvestor (@junkbondinvest) April 27, 2025 3/ Markets missing the biggest risk: S&P 500 revenue from China …
Gov. Kathy Hochul is set to blow through another federal deadline meant to halt the $9 congestion toll to enter parts of Manhattan, as NYC Mayor Eric Adams’ administration backed her in a lawsuit to keep the wildly controversial scheme alive. Both the city and state Departments of Transportation on Friday joined a suit the …
Junk bond yields have exploded pic.twitter.com/F8Slv78mou — The Great Martis (@great_martis) April 7, 2025 High-yield spreads are blowing out…$SPY $TLT pic.twitter.com/zV75YPlXh5 — Fibonacci Investing⚡️ (@FibonacciInves1) April 7, 2025 Market distress is skyrocketing: US high-yield corporate bond spreads are up 100 bps since April 2nd, to 4.45%, the highest since October 2023. This marks the largest …
The economic slowdown isn’t coming—it’s already here. Job market confidence is collapsing, growth expectations are slipping, and the data rolling in is far weaker than predicted. Yet, markets are still pricing in euphoria. That’s a recipe for disaster. Economic data is coming in weaker than expected even before the growth negative fiscal policies from the …
June opex spx Call option 6500 strike $46.5June opex spx Call option 5500 strike $81.5 — Simon Says (@Seniorstrategen) January 18, 2025 It's a pretty huge sign the doors are closing in tbh When you see this and all the coins are red, and everything is being funneled into like 3 coins, you start to …
Wholesale egg prices, as tracked by the Urner Barry Egg Index, have reached record highs at the start of the new year. This surge is mostly driven by the ongoing devastating impact of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), which has crushed commercial flocks and dented the nation’s egg-laying capacity Three weeks ago, new data from …
Crucially, the estimates are an approximation based on several simplifying assumptions and limited data. The data we have from RealPage and Zillow measure both algorithm usage and rental prices at the level of a metro area, and not at the level of a rental unit. But in reality, the costs to renters of landlords using …
The Albanese government is focusing on tackling “shrinkflation” in supermarkets, a practice where product sizes are reduced while prices remain the same or even increase. This troubling trend has become more common, allowing companies to pass on rising costs to consumers without adjusting price tags. To combat this issue, the government plans to strengthen the …
🚨MARKET PRICING SIGNALS A 100% PROBABILITY OF US RECESSION🚨 The market is currently pricing in over 2.00% Fed rate cuts within 12 months, the most since the Financial Crisis. This implies a 100% probability of a recession in the next 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs. pic.twitter.com/AHZtUBrZ3Z — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) September 22, 2024 …
There’s a reason why the big boys have been selling and holding cash. The market may not correct right away but when it bottoms it will take years to recover. The difficulty will be determining when the bottom is in. — JettBlast (@JettBlast00) September 18, 2024 8/ The Fed cuts rates in response to economic …