Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought news which made me double-check it. So without further ado let me hand you over to the Financial Times. Please do not adjust your sets. Investors have increased bets that interest rates in the Eurozone could rise next year even as the US continues to lower borrowing costs, in …
A powerful solar eruption is expected to hit Earth soon, according to the NOAA. The storm has the potential to disrupt some technology and cause stronger-than-usual auroras, making the northern lights visible in more U.S. regions than usual. Read more: https://t.co/mdary8K4NX pic.twitter.com/roE2JE5tK2 — ABC News (@ABC) December 9, 2025 A powerful solar eruption is expected …
by confoundedinterest17 Mortgage demand is beginning to look a lot like Christmas. That is, mortgage demand will be listless in December (like the infamous Lake Erie snow effect), but leap upwards in January 202. Mortgage applications decreased 1.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications …
One National Guardsman, 20-year-old Army Specialist Sarah Beckstrom, who was shot on Wednesday in Washington, DC, is not expected to recover, Beckstrom’s father said. “I’m holding her hand right now,” Gary Beckstrom said. “She has a mortal wound. It’s not going to be a recovery.” Tonight, with your family, please say a prayer for the …
🇺🇸US PPI came in at 2.6% Expected – 2.7% This means core inflation is cooling down. Chance for Fed to cut interest rates goes up. — Ted (@TedPillows) November 25, 2025 Polymarket now has Fed cutting in December at 86%, big V from 20-% a week ago 👀 pic.twitter.com/pDQkswroxv — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) November 25, 2025
Overall, unemployment is rising across white-collar roles, and fresh college graduates are facing one of the toughest job markets in years. Even Harvard MBA graduates aren’t exempt.Yet the market continues to sit near all-time highs. https://t.co/HR4KSgoP44 — optionGeek (@StockShark16) November 25, 2025 Today’s rally has all the hallmarks of a bearish setup. As I mentioned …
🚨BREAKING: WAR in Venezuela is expected to begin IMMINENTLY. — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) November 24, 2025 Several commercial flights to Venezuela have been canceled in recent days after the Federal Aviation Administration warned pilots to exercise caution when flying near the country due to the risk of heightened military activity. The caution follows a U.S. …
BREAKING: Experts SHOCKED as the United States adds stunning +119,000 THOUSAND JOBS – despite only +50,000 expected Federal government -3,000 jobs. WOW! CNBC can HARDLY BELIEVE IT. “Nonfarm payrolls up a ROBUST 119K! 119K is the best since April!” 🚨 BREAKING: Experts SHOCKED as the United States adds stunning +119,000 THOUSAND JOBS – despite only …
The United States has entered its longest government shutdown ever, surpassing the 35-day record set during Donald Trump’s first term, with mounting economic losses and warnings of nationwide travel chaos as the political impasse over health care funding drags on. Since Congress failed to approve funding past September 30, nearly 1.4 million federal employees from …
BREAKING: Nyc fire commissioner to resign after Mamdani win. — Leading Report (@LeadingReport) November 5, 2025 After 37 years in NYC, George Santos says he’s leaving, blaming Mamdani’s victory: “I survived Blasio, Cuomo, Adams… now it’s time to go.” @MrSantosNY The Florida real estate market is already seeing a $100M+ surge as nervous New Yorkers …
by confoundedinterest17 ADP is reporting 42k jobs added in October (better than expected). The breakdown. Education and health care, and trade, transportation, and utilities led the growth. Mandami, as expected, was elected Mayor of New York City. He does have a nice smile.
Food banks usually do not have the resources to support such a large influx of people. I am hoping these local communities get together to help feed these individuals and families. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Saturday that food benefits under one of the country’s biggest social assistance programs will not be …
GOLDMAN: “.. the expected change in the unemployment rate over the next year has never been this bad outside recessionary periods since the University of Michigan started asking the question in 1978.” https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3m3p56fas7k2r If you're curious how the economy is doing, look at heavy truck sales. Combined with oil prices falling, this shows we're in …
HOLY CRAP! CNN reveals the devastating news that the Schumer federal shutdown not only HASN’T HARMED President Trump’s public support… …his approval rating has INCREASED! “In the 2018/2019 [shutdown], Trump’s approval rating was down 3 points! THIS shutdown hasn’t eaten into his support AT ALL! His net approval rating is actually UP a point!” “This …
We are now into week three of the #governmentshutdown with no end in sight. The #WhiteHouse has already fired more than 4,000 federal workers since the shutdown began. https://abc7.com/post/democrats-say-intimidated-trumps-threats-shutdown-enters-third-week/18013375/ President Trump’s administration for now must stop firing workers during the government shutdown, a federal judge in San Francisco ordered on Wednesday. U.S. District Judge Susan …
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-ai-data-centers-electricity-prices/ Electricity bills are going up around the US, but they’re rising even more sharply in areas located near data centers, according to an investigation into power costs by Bloomberg. The price of wholesale electricity has risen as much as 267% over the last five years in data center hot spots, according to the report, …
PCE 0.3% MoM, Exp. 0.3% PCE 2.7% YoY, Exp. 2.7% PCE Core 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.2% PCE Core 2.9% YoY, Exp. 2.9% But the trend is one – inflation goes UP pic.twitter.com/TmrXCFoc3C — Data Driven Stocks (@stockdatamarket) September 26, 2025 The Fed has to keep cutting rates. The cost of borrowing is far too high …
Banks are not raising savings rates to match the Fed, leaving ordinary savers with no safe way to earn returns. This forces investors into stocks to chase yield, inflating demand and prices. The market is behaving unnaturally and unsustainably, which means that when it breaks, the fallout could be severe and widespread. The bull market …
August delivered a jolt the labor market could not absorb. Employers added 22,000 jobs, far below the 75,000 forecast, exposing a system that is faltering under pressure. Unemployment climbed to 4.3 percent while wage growth inched 0.3 percent month-over-month and 3.7 percent year-over-year, missing projections. Each number reflects more than performance. It reveals cracks threatening …
HOLY FCUK NEVER SEEN A HOTTER PPI OMG Expectation was .2 % It came in at 1% 😱 — tic toc (@TicTocTick) August 14, 2025 Blowout PPI pic.twitter.com/GIHSOuSS1o — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) August 14, 2025 PPI. pic.twitter.com/NYsazFsA0x — Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) August 14, 2025 Core PPI has risen by 0.6% . The services sector inflation has risen …
The deal looks like a headline win. Japan agreed to invest $550 billion into U.S. infrastructure and accept a 15% tariff on its exports. Trump’s team calls it leverage. The talking points promise economic victory. But underneath, the funding channel runs domestic. Japan exports roughly $150 billion worth of goods to the United States every …
What’s going on here is likely a sign of rising global stress. The sharp drop in the 10 year Treasury yield alongside a spike in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) points to a flight to safety and a scramble for dollar liquidity. Normally, falling yields would weaken the dollar but when both move in opposite …
Could just be my imagination, but I think on-line retailers have started charging more for shipping, including upping the minimum purchase for free shipping. Companies are expected to pass on 70% of the direct cost of tariffs to consumers through higher prices, warns Goldman Sachs byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts h/t Capital_Historian685
Federal agencies are sounding the alarm. The FBI and Department of Homeland Security issued joint bulletins warning that lone wolf attacks are the top threat to July 4 celebrations in New York City and San Francisco. The concern is not vague. It’s rooted in recent violence and specific intelligence. The agencies cite the New Year’s …
“The U.S. dollar is likely to go down 25 to 50% over the next five years,” says Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research. He tells Daniela Cambone that the driving force behind this decline is less about the loss of reserve currency status and more about fading U.S. economic outperformance. Papic also points out …
A must listen with Jeff Gundlach. He's gotten the fuck out Stock valuations are a joke Reminds him of 1999 and 2007 Scams last longer than anyone thinks "takes forever" for defaults to finally arrive pic.twitter.com/ecGYq4jiVx — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) June 14, 2025 A colossal inflection point – What are bonds telling us? *Book ideas, …
Inflation is cooling faster than expected, sending shockwaves through financial markets. The latest Consumer Price Index report shows prices rose just 0.1 percent in May, falling short of the 0.2 percent forecast. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, also came in lower at 0.1 percent, well below the expected 0.3 percent. The annual …
🇺🇸 LAPD SWINGS BACK: ARRESTS BEGIN After hours of chaos, cops finally made their move and started dragging people out. The freeway standoff turned into a full-blown clash as officers closed in and made multiple arrests on the spot. This is just the first wave, but if the crowd… https://t.co/9jTj9LpzHq pic.twitter.com/5SO0R85Ilv — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) …
