Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
On a hazy Southern California morning, undercover police officers watched Jiayong Yu step out of a Range Rover in a strip-mall parking lot and walk into a Chase bank with a black-leather backpack full of cash. At the teller window, Yu pulled out stacks of bills and waited while a woman fed them into a …
Japan wage shock: Real wages plunge to -2.1% YoY, the worst in two years, and a deflationary disaster for the BOJ which puts a final nail in any hiking plans. If anything, BOJ should restart NIRP and boost QE (but it can't with Bessent watching its every move). pic.twitter.com/kAV3BNcQgR — zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 9, 2025
“Deutsche Bank’s forecast points to a sharp deterioration in S&P 500 earnings growth, with Q2 expected to turn negative and a deeper contraction anticipated later in 2025 if tariffs persist, marking a stark divergence from the more optimistic bottom-up consensus.” – @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/zRShvKWuSp — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) May 8, 2025 “.. We’re seeing pushback …
Glorified drop shippers getting destroyed out there lol pic.twitter.com/I9d9G3XpwB — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 5, 2025
Listen to the head of the Port of Los Angeles. No single person is getting more real time data about the economy than this guy. He says we are fucked. pic.twitter.com/QNmJc8FKw4 — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) May 3, 2025 h/t telling it straight
by azavio Complement to a former post. Any jump in airlines stock price is just dancing around for now The Travel crisis that is emerging will affect other industries that profit fromn tourism, like real estate https://finance.yahoo.com/news/very-rapid-drop-domestic-demand-182820043.html https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/7nEvEsNjpp https://sherwood.news/business/us-airlines-in-a-recession-southwest-ceo/ On the international front, for majors Airlines, Chinese and other Asian international tourists are crucial to their …
This sell-off is technical. Volume isn’t as heavy as it was during the prior weeks’ panic, suggesting this is more about a lack of conviction to buy rather than aggressive selling. What feels dull and uninteresting today could look appealing tomorrow — and once again, the retail… — optionGeek (@StockShark16) April 21, 2025 Today had …
We haven’t seen the full effects of the 10% tariffs, the Chinese embargo, or the uncertainty in the economic data. The 25% auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico haven’t kicked in. Canada and the U.S. have a deeply integrated auto supply chain. Trump firing Powell before the 2026 midterms is still possible. He believes he …
1) On a month over month basis, home values dropped in 24 of 50 states in March. The drops in value were most concentrated in the Sun Belt and Mountain West, as well as California. pic.twitter.com/xOuFYpoPNq — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) April 17, 2025 4) In Tampa, values are already down -3.3% over the last year. …
Retail dip buyers may vanish when reality finally lands. Given how overpriced the U.S. stock market is, and the severity of the coming recession and earnings decline, it still has a long way to fall. In fact, despite the decline, given the negative impact of tariffs, the market is more overpriced now than it was …
Last week’s trade data shows an incredibly bleak picture for the economy: – 49% drop in global container bookings – 64% drop in U.S. imports. – 30% drop in U.S. exports. The data from March 24-31, 2025, compared to the subsequent week (April 1-8, 2025), shows a dramatic decrease in pre-order quantities. The total number …
Live look at the New York migrant crisis: This is the outside of the men’s migrant shelter that opened up at the end of February in the Bronx. It’s doubling as both a shelter and a mailroom where migrants can pick up their mail, that oftentimes includes notification letters… pic.twitter.com/rfdC2MwdAN — Savanah Hernandez (@Savsays) April …
Retail investor activity is higher today than it was prior to the 27% ^IXIC drawdown in Feb (hard to believe) – this likely stays the case through another larger downside impulsive move We’ve never had so many households or individuals ‘all in’… speculative fever continues🤒🌴 — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) April 11, 2025 Very disturbing chart …
https://twitter.com/newstart_2024/status/1909996115799273649
Saw the Navarro interview on CNBC this morning. The Trump administration is not budging on anything. They don’t have any interest in negotiation. They want trade on their terms period. Now Europe is retaliating. All I see are lower stock prices. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 7, 2025 He's losing his mind … lol pic.twitter.com/mN0t3jOZqL …
https://www.cnbc.com/2009/09/14/the-financial-crisis-this-dayone-year-ago-sept-15-2008.html HOLY FUCK. This is worse than the nuclear option:https://t.co/bYpi0vI8Zl The good news is that I think the Fed will be cutting rates by next week when markets go into Trump Lehman mode this week. EM currency crisis on deck. pic.twitter.com/4eEtlOoUJh — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) April 2, 2025 The tariff announcement is already pushing #markets to …
US ComSec Lutnick: 20% China Tariff Would Drop If Xi Offers Fentanyl Cuts – BBGTV — LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 3, 2025
BREAKING: Job postings on Indeed dropped -10% year-over-year last week to the lowest in 4 years. Over the last 3 years, job postings have declined -33%. As a result, available vacancies are just 8% above pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, NEW job postings have dropped -40%… https://t.co/NjibDegyuc pic.twitter.com/2ZBcCISntm — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 1, 2025
Bitcoin is about to make a big move. And according to china liquidity injection, is to the downside. pic.twitter.com/lO5XrNFgR2 — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) March 27, 2025 Bitcoin Mauling season on approach. pic.twitter.com/v1IkbAhCTz — The Great Martis (@great_martis) March 26, 2025 Trying to pump bitcoin with rumours 😂😂 The cult is relentless. https://t.co/kAveiDRf5R — The Great …
The damage to the economy is becoming undeniable as we face government layoffs, spending cuts, tariffs, and increasingly strained international relations. The Trump administration’s policies have angered some of our closest allies, deported countless individuals, and led to the harassment of international travelers—some even facing imprisonment at the border. The economic fallout is beginning to …
TSLA is at 271. It was $225 when Tim Walz was so excited about the stock dropping. It was $172 a year ago. Can Democrats do anything right? https://t.co/p7c5OWXCoq — Karol Markowicz (@karol) March 24, 2025
NEW ‼️ US Border Patrol is securing San Diego, California San Diego sector acting Chief Patrol agent “You cross illegally here in San Diego sector, you will face consequences” – 6 MILES of new razor wire has just been installed across the San Diego Border– Agents are… pic.twitter.com/Es3cAwwnxr — Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) March 23, …
TLDR: GDPNow estimates a -1.8% annualized GDP decline for Q1 2025, signaling contraction. Two straight quarters of GDP decline typically indicate a recession. Policy uncertainty, including tariffs and mass-firings, threatens further economic damage. Federal worker layoffs could devastate local economies, real estate, and key industries. Immigration policies may harm agriculture and tourism, worsening economic strain. …
Inflation is now just 1.35% according to real-time index Truflation. Eggs are down 30%. Oil is down 14%. Commodities are falling a percent per week. Expected housing inflation went from 12% to just 1.1%. The left is scrambling for new talking points. https://t.co/FGAZ7vfh0G — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) March 20, 2025 Inflation in the United …
Nearly $3 trillion of U.S. debt is expected to hit maturity in 2025, much of it of a short-term nature. That could provide another headache should the market not be prepared to absorb what already is expected to be massive Treasury issuance as the U.S. finances a nearly $2 trillion budget deficit. As if the …
Stock market, indices, and magnificent 7 signal double top trading signal
by confoundedinterest17 Did Jerome Powell and The Federal Reserve push markets too hard? Sales of existing single-family houses, townhouses, condos, and co-ops that closed in January dropped by 4.9% from December, seasonally adjusted, to an annual rate of 4.08 million sales, according to the National Association of Realtors today. This rate of sales was up just 2.0% …
January saw a sharp pullback in consumer spending, suggesting a potential slowdown in economic growth, according to a Commerce Department report released Friday. Retail sales dropped 0.9% for the month, following an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in December.. Much worse than the expected 0.2% dip. These figures are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, which …
Costco’s stock price is a gravity-defying spectacle, but the laws of parabola always win. A grocery store, no matter how beloved, should not be trading at a P/E of 62. That’s not sustainable; that’s euphoria. Every bubble looks justified until it bursts, and when reality sets in, valuations will find their way back to sanity. …
