Last week’s trade data shows an incredibly bleak picture for the economy:
– 49% drop in global container bookings
– 64% drop in U.S. imports.
– 30% drop in U.S. exports.
The data from March 24-31, 2025, compared to the subsequent week (April 1-8, 2025), shows a dramatic decrease in pre-order quantities. The total number of standard container bookings dropped by 49%, overall U.S. imports by 64%, and overall U.S. exports by 30%. This sharp decline coincides with two key events: the U.S. announcement of retaliatory tariffs on China and China’s subsequent countermeasures. These tariff actions have led to a widespread freeze in shipping bookings, with shippers pausing their operations mid-cycle to reassess costs, timelines, and broader trade strategies.
https://www.ainvest.com/news/tariffs-spark-64-drop-imports-49-decline-container-bookings-2504/
If this continues for more than a few weeks, there is no doubt in my mind that we are headed for the worst recession in our lifetime.
Meanwhile in China trade data this week
China's March trade data out
Continuation of some unwanted trends that'll stoke EU trade diversion angst
China's EU exports⬆️10.29%
China's EU imports⬇️7.5%
China's German exports⬆️ 11.9%
China's German imports⬇️ 6.5%
China's French exports ⬆️4.5%
China's French imports ⬇️2.6%— Finbarr Bermingham (@fbermingham) April 14, 2025
AC