credit
Treasury Secretary Bessent dismisses the US credit rating being downgraded: “I don’t put much credence in the Moody’s.”
🇺🇸Treasury Secretary Bessent dismisses the US credit rating being downgraded: "I don't put much credence in the Moody's." pic.twitter.com/KwhbDltf4U — Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) May 18, 2025 BESSENT, AFTER CALL WITH WALMART CEO: WALMART IS GOING TO 'EAT' SOME OF THE TARIFFS $WMT — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) May 18, 2025 Bessent Interview Highlights This Morning: -Downplayed the …
Corporate downgrades, defaults, and credit spreads are sending warnings to the equity market.
1. The corporate downgrades and defaults are slowly rising. To put the current corporate environment in perspective, we reviewed the United States corporate default since 2020. – Moody’s estimates that credit conditions in 2025 will be challenging enough that the realized… pic.twitter.com/opYe22beKh — Unicus (@UnicusResearch) May 16, 2025 2 (a) – Distressed defaults are detrimental …
Moody’s Downgrades USA Credit Rating From Aaa (M2 Money UP 40% Since Covid, Public Debt UP 56%, US CDS Down Near Greek Levels!)
by confoundedinterest17 Now you know why Trump is so eager to cut wasteful spending! The real mystery is why Democrats and RINOs are so determined to continue wasteful spending and not cut taxes. Trump inherited a fiscal disaster from Biden and Congress. Not to mention The Federal Reserve. Credit default swaps (CDS) for the USA …
Moody’s now has the following countries credit rated higher (AAA) than the United States (AA1):
lol This is comicalUSA probably makes more than them combinedhas more resources and energy than all combinedhas more high tech jobs probably 10X more than all combined — Rohit Tidke (@_rtidke) May 16, 2025
US Delinquencies Up 700% as Americans Max Out on Credit
Credit Card and Auto Loan delinquencies. 👇🏼 Nothing to see here, move along. pic.twitter.com/MOj9KRtxpU — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) May 15, 2025 Student loan delinquencies are exploding—and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. With $18.2 trillion in household debt and credit defaults rising, is the U.S. consumer about to collapse? Taylor Kenny breaks down …
Stagflation threat could push rates higher for longer; Lenders to tech and VC face wave of credit pain…
“In a stagflation scenario, the risk is that rates will be higher for longer and credit losses will begin to accumulate, in particular for lenders to tech, growth, and VC, where borrowers are characterized by having no earnings and low coverage ratios.” Apollo Sadly, today's gap up in markets won't fix this. Per FDIC, the …
Savings vanish, credit maxed, pain approaching; Entitlement era collides with financial reality.
It’s been too easy for far too long. You can feel it in the air. Something is off. Money has flowed like water from broken pipes and the damage is everywhere. Free handouts became a way of life. Stimulus checks. Pandemic subsidies. Canceled student loans. Frozen rents. Each move chipped away at the foundation. And …
Credit Default Swaps Are SURGING
US sovereign CDS prices are soaring, not relenting after jumping during April. While mainstream sources will say that’s this dollar-ditching stuff, neither the track record for CDS nor empirical evidence agrees. Government credit default swap premiums are set by one factor, and it has everything to do with the banking system.
Student loan collections begin today for 5M+ borrowers in default. Delinquency rate hits record 20.5% — credit scores tanking by 171 points
Today, the feds start collecting on 5 million+ defaulted student loan borrowers with collections. We have a 20.5% delinquency rate (90 days+) – highest ever recorded (TransUnion) Tax refunds will be seized through the Treasury Offset Program. Social Security benefits cut by up… — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) May 5, 2025 More Than Half of Subprime …
Consumer credit soars, while personal savings plummet
Households are leaning hard on debt just to stay afloat. Total consumer credit stood at over $5 trillion in Feb. 2025 — a nearly $1 trillion jump since the Covid-19 pandemic — while the personal savings rate has dropped to barely 2.5%, among the lowest levels outside of historic recessions. This isn’t just headline noise; …
And now, the credit begins to dry up.
And now, the credit begins to dry up. No credit growth = no money growth = no spending growth = no profit growth = job layoffs = recession. pic.twitter.com/fWbYvVQ7GN — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) April 30, 2025 When are we going to understand there’s no “winners” in trade wars? Only losers. Who loses? We the People …
Delinquencies soar BNPL(Buy now pay later) hits credit reports. U.S. consumer confidence report falls to lowest level in 14 years.
BNPL: do you love it or hate it? 41% of users missed payments in the past year (LendingTree 2025), and with credit cards at 11.35% delinquency (Fed), it’s a lifeline for some, a nightmare for others. Now BNPL is being reported to credit reports. YIKES! 200K+ of you felt very… — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) April …
Record high share of accounts making minimum credit card payments
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RCCCBSHRMIN h/t kmmeow1
Hardship 401k withdrawals running 15-20% above norms. 44% of Americans now believe they will be WORSE OFF financially in a year.
Yields are more likely to crash in the coming months, not the opposite. pic.twitter.com/QNo5b0NzIb — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) April 25, 2025 Hardship 401k withdrawals running 15-20% above norms pic.twitter.com/C4VOxqXuNB — Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) April 25, 2025 This is stunning: 44% of Americans now believe they will be WORSE OFF financially in …
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 6-month outlook for new orders -26. Economic output hits 16-month low in April. Goldman Sachs says to brace for a bigger stock drawdown, wider credit spreads and recession
🇺🇸 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 6-month outlook for new orders -26. An all-time record low! Chart: @zerohedge pic.twitter.com/wmKOQNUzGZ — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) April 23, 2025 Goldman Sachs, $GS, says to brace for a bigger stock drawdown, wider credit spreads and recession — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 23, 2025 JPMORGAN: MIGRATION CONCERNS HURTING U.S. TOURISM This is …
Credit card delinquencies highest since 2011. 275,000 jobs cut in March as layoffs surge. Trucking volumes have collapsed to near pre-COVID levels.
The pressure is not just building. It is bursting through the seams. More than 5,300,000 student borrowers are now in default. Another 4,000,000 are about to be hunted down when federal collections resume on May 5. These are not small figures. They represent lives unraveling under debt that was never meant to be repaid in …
Economic recessions and credit market stress
by MonetaryCommentary When credit spreads surge and GDP contracts, the common interpretation is causality, though what’s more revealing is how the credit market prices risk before the economy acknowledges it. In pre-GFC regimes, the widening of corporate bond spreads was tightly coupled with funding cost pressures and a hard pullback in credit availability. But, post-2008, …
Mortgage defaults explode 10.7 million late on payments. Credit card defaults break all-time record highs
2/ From 1940s to 1970s, Americans used to save around 10% of their annual income But today, savings relative to income is almost near 0% pic.twitter.com/aEsoNYSKiZ — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) April 18, 2025 4/ Today, the personal savings rate has dropped to 4.6% This is historically a very low level pic.twitter.com/us3oz4YLN0 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) …
UBS inherits Credit Suisse’s toxic swaps quietly. No margin rules triggered in hidden derivatives dump. CFTC bends rules to avoid systemic quake
via BossBlunts1: WHY THE CFTC NO-ACTION LETTER MATTERS It allows UBS to absorb toxic Credit Suisse swaps quietly — no clearing or margin requirements kick in. It shields these legacy exposures from public scrutiny. It suggests the risk is so large or complex, that the CFTC believes enforcing margin and clearing rules now could cause …
US Bond Credit Default Swap Spiking
This credit default swap is like an insurance against the risk of US Debt default, implying that the market is pricing in higher risk for the US government to default on its debt. h/t kmmeow1
UBS: If we report these swaps we inherited from Credit Suisse, the Financial System will collapse.
UBS: If we report these swaps we inherited from Credit Suisse, the Financial System will collapse. CFTC: Say no more fam, how does 'Swap Relief with no Expiration' sound? pic.twitter.com/Nk2mopkJWw — M.B. (@741trey) April 16, 2025
Financial conditions tightest since 2020 pandemic crash… Credit stress, falling stocks point to sharp economic slowdown ahead… $VIX HUGE $10M+ OTM CALLS
BREAKING: US financial conditions are now their tightest since the 2020 pandemic, per ZeroHedge. Financial conditions are even tighter than during one of the most rapid Fed hike cycles of all time, in 2022. Conditions have tightened rapidly as stocks have pulled back, while… pic.twitter.com/d53KqrwU4D — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 14, 2025 Is this …
AMERICANS owe $1.21 TRILLION in credit card debt – 10% of accounts delinquent!
It’s a frightening reality about the state of American consumer debt that at the end of 2024, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis indicated that Americans owe more than $1.21 trillion in credit card debt. This was up $45 billion from the third quarter of 2024 and was 7.3% higher than the same debt …
Jamie Dimon warns of imminent recession, expects more credit crisis… Peter Schiff warns U.S. stock market rally is a bear market rally, sell opportunity
With the global tariffs and the stock market chaos, Jamie Dimon states that a recession is on the horizon, warning that “we will see more credit problems than people have seen in a long time.” pic.twitter.com/HNmc9zZcW2 — Ian Miles Cheong (@ianmiles) April 9, 2025 Let’s just all admit it. The chances of a recession are …
Consumer Credit Unexpectedly Declines with Huge Negative Revisions Too
by Mike Shedlock Economists expected a $15.0 billion rise in consumer credit. The Fed reported -$0.8 billion. The Bloomberg Econoday consensus outlook “Expected up another strong $15.0 billion in February after rising by $18.1 billion in January.” January was revised from $18.1 billion to $8.9 billion. That’s a net miss of $25 billion. Real Consumer …
Junk bond yields have exploded. Markets are pricing in a higher probability of a credit event.
Junk bond yields have exploded pic.twitter.com/F8Slv78mou — The Great Martis (@great_martis) April 7, 2025 High-yield spreads are blowing out…$SPY $TLT pic.twitter.com/zV75YPlXh5 — Fibonacci Investing⚡️ (@FibonacciInves1) April 7, 2025 Market distress is skyrocketing: US high-yield corporate bond spreads are up 100 bps since April 2nd, to 4.45%, the highest since October 2023. This marks the largest …
Credit spreads will explode….Slowly then suddenly
https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1906500008058204561 https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1906442966669099163 Goldman Sachs $GS has raised probability that a recession occurs in 12 months from 20% to 35%. pic.twitter.com/SgRovbBD4j — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 30, 2025 There has only been ONE TIME the NCAA Final Four had all four #1 top seeds. Just one time. Out of 85 occurrences. It was back in April 2008. …
Half of all new bank credit now goes to institutions, not everyday borrowers
When banks stop lending to the public, the consequences will be seismic. What happens when Banks stop Lending to the Public 🤔 Since Silicon Valley Bank failed in March of 2023, more than 50% of all the new🔵Loans and Leases originated by the Commercial Banks have been made to🟡Non-Depository Financial Institutions instead into the General …