Credit Default Swaps Are SURGING

US sovereign CDS prices are soaring, not relenting after jumping during April. While mainstream sources will say that’s this dollar-ditching stuff, neither the track record for CDS nor empirical evidence agrees. Government credit default swap premiums are set by one …

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And now, the credit begins to dry up.

And now, the credit begins to dry up. No credit growth = no money growth = no spending growth = no profit growth = job layoffs = recession. pic.twitter.com/fWbYvVQ7GN — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) April 30, 2025 When are we going …

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Hardship 401k withdrawals running 15-20% above norms. 44% of Americans now believe they will be WORSE OFF financially in a year.

Yields are more likely to crash in the coming months, not the opposite. pic.twitter.com/QNo5b0NzIb — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) April 25, 2025 Hardship 401k withdrawals running 15-20% above norms pic.twitter.com/C4VOxqXuNB — Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) April 25, 2025 …

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 6-month outlook for new orders -26. Economic output hits 16-month low in April. Goldman Sachs says to brace for a bigger stock drawdown, wider credit spreads and recession

🇺🇸 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 6-month outlook for new orders -26. An all-time record low! Chart: @zerohedge pic.twitter.com/wmKOQNUzGZ — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) April 23, 2025 Goldman Sachs, $GS, says to brace for a bigger stock drawdown, wider credit spreads and …

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Economic recessions and credit market stress

by MonetaryCommentary When credit spreads surge and GDP contracts, the common interpretation is causality, though what’s more revealing is how the credit market prices risk before the economy acknowledges it. In pre-GFC regimes, the widening of corporate bond spreads was …

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Credit spreads will explode….Slowly then suddenly

https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1906500008058204561 https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1906442966669099163 Goldman Sachs $GS has raised probability that a recession occurs in 12 months from 20% to 35%. pic.twitter.com/SgRovbBD4j — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 30, 2025 There has only been ONE TIME the NCAA Final Four had all four #1 …

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