It’s been too easy for far too long. You can feel it in the air. Something is off. Money has flowed like water from broken pipes and the damage is everywhere. Free handouts became a way of life. Stimulus checks. Pandemic subsidies. Canceled student loans. Frozen rents. Each move chipped away at the foundation. And the bill is coming.
This economy is no longer built on sweat. It runs on dopamine. We created a culture that chases comfort and avoids struggle. People ask what they deserve instead of what they can contribute. The muscle of discipline has atrophied. We traded thrift for credit. Grit for entitlement. Production for speculation.
Over the past three years, personal savings rates collapsed from record highs to near record lows. In 2020, savings spiked above 30 percent. By early 2024, that number cratered to under 4 percent. Credit card balances hit all-time highs. Over a trillion dollars and climbing. Delinquencies are surging. And yet, luxury spending continues like nothing’s wrong.
The middle class is being slowly hollowed out. Wages are not keeping up. Real income growth has stagnated while asset prices exploded. Housing affordability is the worst in modern history. Median home prices have decoupled from household incomes. A generation is locked out of ownership while another clings to artificially inflated wealth.
This did not happen by accident. Monetary policy has been turned into a weapon. Fiscal restraint has become extinct. For decades, every slowdown was met with more easing. Every bump in the road was paved with printed money. Markets were never allowed to breathe, never allowed to correct. Every pain was numbed. Every fire smothered before it taught a lesson.
We lost the rhythm of boom and bust. The normal cycle of seven good years and seven lean ones kept human behavior in check. Scarcity forced planning. Abundance followed discipline. That cycle was broken. We chose permanent abundance and got permanent distortion.
Liquidity became the drug of choice. The central banks delivered. And governments followed with a flood of spending. Total US public debt now stands at 34 trillion dollars. That is over 100 percent of GDP and growing faster than the economy. Interest on the debt is projected to exceed defense spending within the next year. The fiscal math no longer works.
Recession is not the enemy. Prolonging the excess is. Hard times correct soft habits. Tight conditions build resilience. Instead, we tried to bend nature. We kept the water flowing straight when it needed to meander. Monetary and fiscal policy should work like a river. It curves. It pulls back. It finds balance. For 30 years, we forced it in one direction. Endless accommodation. Endless consumption. No pause. No reflection.
Now the cost of that arrogance is here.
The economy is still running on fumes. But the tank is almost dry. Layoffs are rising. Small businesses are buckling under the weight of rising costs and falling demand. Consumer confidence is slipping. Defaults are starting to rise in auto loans, mortgages, and corporate debt. This is how it begins.
A hard recession is not just necessary. It is vital. The system must be purged of false signals and fake incentives. Easy money rewires behavior. It makes people reckless. It rewards the worst instincts. Only real pain resets the compass.
People need to be reminded of consequences. That money must be earned. That risk carries cost. That savings are not a relic but a necessity. Until we feel the fire, we will not change.
The storm is not a glitch. It is a correction. And it is overdue.