Economists expected a $15.0 billion rise in consumer credit. The Fed reported -$0.8 billion.
The Bloomberg Econoday consensus outlook “Expected up another strong $15.0 billion in February after rising by $18.1 billion in January.”
January was revised from $18.1 billion to $8.9 billion. That’s a net miss of $25 billion.
Real Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars
It’s real spending that drives GDP and real credit is rolling over.
Revolving Consumer Credit
In nominal terms, revolving credit peaked in October of 20024 at 1.3689 trillion.
In real terms revolving credit peaked in April of 2008, the fourth month of the Great Recession.
Revolving credit tends to peak just before or in recessions.