Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Bloomberg: "Canada edged into a technical recession as weak business and government spending drove a slight contraction in the first quarter…Real gross domestic product fell by 0.1% on an annualized basis during the first three months of the year…: That follows a 1%… pic.twitter.com/ttA5YknRR4 — Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) May 29, 2026
Nonfarm payrolls in February fell by 92,000, compared to the estimate for 50,000 and below the downwardly revised January total of 126,000. It was the third time in five months that the economy lost jobs. Health care, the primary growth driver in payrolls, saw a loss of 28,000 due largely to a strike at Kaiser …
An initial reading of third-quarter gross domestic product showed the US economy expanded at an inflation-adjusted annualized rate of 4.3%, a far faster pace than the 3.8% recorded in the second quarter, according to Commerce Department data released Tuesday. That’s the fastest growth rate in two years. An acceleration in consumer spending, up 3.5% from …
In a surprise move, the Republican-led Senate quickly passed the “No Tax on Tips Act” on Tuesday, giving its official stamp of approval to an idea that has gained traction since President Donald Trump campaigned on it last year. The legislation would create a tax deduction worth up to $25,000 for tips, limited to cash …
by Mike Shedlock Economists expected a $15.0 billion rise in consumer credit. The Fed reported -$0.8 billion. The Bloomberg Econoday consensus outlook “Expected up another strong $15.0 billion in February after rising by $18.1 billion in January.” January was revised from $18.1 billion to $8.9 billion. That’s a net miss of $25 billion. Real Consumer …
Trump won and the global economy has "unexpectedly" gone into a tailspin https://t.co/W5lAAGM06Q pic.twitter.com/af02CAdEnx — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 4, 2024 US executives are selling stock at extreme levels: The ratio of insider sellers to buyers hit nearly 6x, the most in at least two decades. This is DOUBLE the average seen over the last 3 …
by confoundedinterest17 The Biden/Harris economy is a disaster. After last month’s catastrophic JOLTS report, which was a disaster across the board, and which was meant to give the Fed a green light to cut rates more after Biden won the election (which he didn’t, but the Fed still had to cut even if Trump is …
by Mike Shedlock Industrial production declined 0.3 percent in September. Negative revisions lopped off another 0.5 percent. The Bloomberg consensus was a decline of 0.1 percent. Factoring in negative and positive revisions the decline was about 0.5 percent. Blame the Hurricanes The Fed blames the hurricanes in its September Industrial Production Report. Industrial production (IP) decreased …
Food-delivery apps have responded to cities’ new wage-increase requirements for gig workers by ratcheting up fees. Now, they are contending with frustrated consumers, plunging restaurant orders and an exodus of delivery drivers. Lawmakers in New York City, one of the cities where pay increases for delivery drivers recently were adopted, say that their changes have …
Economists said the country’s property crisis continued to weigh on confidence among households and businesses, as non-manufacturing activity also slowed. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said its official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in May from 50.4 in April. This is below analysts’ forecasts and under the 50 threshold that divides …
by confoundedinterest17 After (unexpectedly) tumbling in March, existing home sales were expected to rise modestly (+0.8% MoM) in April. Analysts were wrong as March’s data was revised marginally up from -4.3% MoM to -3.7% MoM and April printed -1.9% MoM (a big miss). That left existing home sales down 1.9% YoY… Source: Bloomberg That pushed the …
via kmph: Employees at Fosters Freeze in Lemoore are out of a job. Assistant General Manager Monica Navarro says she was called Monday morning by her boss who was at the restaurant to open, only to find the locks were being changed. Navarro said she thought it was an April Fools joke. “I was so …
It might be the easiest answer on Jeopardy: Where is most economic growth in the United States happening? If you took “Red States” you win a cookie. The United States is experiencing rapid growth and job creation, with most of the growth occurring in red states. ABC News doesn’t quite seem to connect all the …
Hard landing? 👀 https://t.co/4WQwhJuON5 — The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) December 20, 2023 The fall in UK inflation below 4%, which no economist predicted, will make it very hard for the BOE to stick to its higher for longer stance on rates. https://t.co/mFfIg6VI8Z — Sofia Horta e Costa (@SofiaHCBBG) December 20, 2023 🇬🇧 #BOE Money Printing …
via businessinsider: “China held its annual Central Economic Work Conference, or CEWC, on Monday and Tuesday. It was attended by all of the country’s top leaders, including President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. A document released after the conference sets the agenda for China’s economy — the second-largest economy in the world — for …
by confoundedinterest17 The Empire (State) Strikes Out! Contraction (or economic slowdown) is hitting New York State! After three strong ‘beats’ in a row, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey crashed back into contraction, well below expectations in December (from +9.1 to -14.5, +2.0 exp). The drop takes the measure from ‘expansion’ at 7-month-highs to ‘contraction’ at 4-month-lows… …
The bank said that the business is “no longer viable” given their commitment to “increase overall returns.” This news comes just weeks after the company began layoffs that would impact 10,000+ employees. BREAKING: Citigroup, $C, to shut down its municipal business in an effort to improve profitability. The bank said that the business is "no …
via axios: House Democrats have rejected the White House’s months-long campaign to sell the term “Bidenomics.” Why it matters: Democrats are going into the 2024 election divided on how to communicate about the economy at a time when most voters are dissatisfied with it. What’s happening: House Democratic leadership stopped pushing the term months ago. The Democratic …
As oil prices face their fifth consecutive weekly loss, a trend not seen since December 2021, the market reacts with nearly a 5% decline attributed to OPEC’s decision to delay their meeting. The reported cause, “production disagreements,” marks a notable crack in OPEC’s unity, the first sign of such strain since the pandemic began. Oil …
via washingtonexaminer: Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) has embraced “dirty” energy for California as he looks to stave off blackouts threatening the state’s strained energy grid. While Newsom has pushed for a transition to renewable energy in California, the realities there have forced him to increasingly rely on nonrenewable energy sources to meet the state’s energy demands. Fighting off heavy criticism from …
pic.twitter.com/uX9VoRGdXK — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 15, 2023 Does anyone remember August 2015 – Yuan deval? Well, it's about to be a lot worse this time as the Chinese government can't stimulate the economy and support the currency at the same time. So why not just let the currency do the heavy lifting? pic.twitter.com/fAcHUIQMhH …
via Yahoo: Bogged down by inflationary pressures, customers are opting for lower-priced animal protein over alternatives such as plant-based products. The ambiguity around the health benefits of plant-based meat is also weighing on growth, said CEO Ethan Brown in a post-earnings call. “This change in perception is not without encouragement from interest groups who have …
via APNEWS: Two U.S. Navy sailors were charged Thursday with providing sensitive military information to China — including details on wartime exercises, naval operations and critical technical material. The two sailors, both based in California, were charged with similar moves to provide sensitive intelligence to the Chinese. But they were separate cases, and it wasn’t …
Glad to announce that after the meeting I hosted with @RTErdogan & @SwedishPM, President Erdogan has agreed to forward #Sweden's accession protocol to the Grand National Assembly ASAP & ensure ratification. This is an historic step which makes all #NATO Allies stronger & safer. pic.twitter.com/D7OeR5Vgba — Jens Stoltenberg (@jensstoltenberg) July 10, 2023 Turkey’s President Recep …
via aier.org: In 2022 Norway’s third richest man, Kjell Inge Røkke, announced in an open letter to shareholders he was moving to Lugano, Switzerland. “My capital will continue working in Norway,” wrote the fishing magnate turned industrialist who launched his empire four decades ago with a 69-foot trawler he bought while saving money working on …
by confoundedinterest17 I wonder if Biden’s proposed railroad from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean will generate massive industrial production growth? Is this more Bidenomics?? Industrial production unexpectedly dips in May. It peaked eight months ago. On a year-over-year basis, May’s Industrial Production declined to a lame 0.23%. As The Fed hikes rates and slows …
Saudi Arabia Plans To Cut Oil Production Again After No ‘Consequences’ From Biden. “The move comes almost one year after President Joe Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia, during which he fist-bumped autocratic Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, prompting widespread criticism. Despite Biden’s visit, the Saudi-led Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in October announced a production …
by confoundedinterest17 Sweet Home Chicago? After the unexpected resurgence in April, Chicago PMI plunged in May from 48.6 to 40.4 (against expectations of 47.3). That is the ninth straight month below 50 (in contraction)… Source: Bloomberg That is the longest streak of prints in ‘contraction’ since the Great Financial Crisis. Under the hood, none of …
