Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirms that inflation rose to 4.2% in May 2026. This is the highest level since April 2023. The main driver of this surge is the energy shock caused by the war in the Middle East. Rising gasoline and transportation costs accounted for over 60% of the …
If space X is overvalued then RKLB is 5x worst. “Rklb is sitting at 81b market cap as of this morning. 81b… with negative income. They have roughly by my calcs 600x less payload to orbit than spacex… Yet the company is valued at 20x less than space X if space X is 1.5t to …
This is a very big deal. One of Ireland's longest-running and best known opinion columnists says he was explicitly told that only negative stories about Trump would be published. Many of us have long suspected that there was editorial pressure to attack Trump in the Irish… https://t.co/MEWUFwjUjT — Dr. Eoin Lenihan (@EoinLenihan) April 27, 2026 …
If this keeps spreading, global shipping costs start getting shaped by geography pricing instead of pure fuel economics. Indonesia Announces Plan to Impose Fees on Ships Transiting the Strait of Malacca Indonesia has declared that it intends to introduce transit charges on vessels passing through the Strait of Malacca, one of the world’s busiest and …
Sweden is running DEI ads portraying the blonde native Swedes as the loud and inconsiderate people on public transit. Many people from Sweden and Norway are pointing out the reality of public transit in Sweden and Norway. https://t.co/njiYuM1fC9 — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) April 8, 2026
Every major correction on this chart started the same way. The Weekly 9 EMA crossed below the 21 EMA. 2022 Bear Market • Drop: -27% Market rallied… Then another correction • -10% Market rallied harder… Fast forward to now: Tariff Panic • Drop: -21% We rallied again… And the same weekly bearish cross just printed. …
Moody’s Ratings has projected a negative outlook for New York City’s finances, chalking it up to the city’s large and persistent projected budget gaps — and citing Mayor Mamdani’s plan to draw down from reserves in order to balance the budget this year. The negative outlook won’t have any immediate impact on the city’s borrowing …
INSIDERS ARE RUNNING FOR THE EXIT: Look at this data. – Diamondback Energy: $1.13 BILLION sold – Peter Thiel dumped $289 million in Palantir – VRT former officer: $263 million sold – BW Group: $210 million in DHT – Silver Point Capital: $155 million in GPOR – IBP CEO + Chairman: $255 million combined – …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, A recent construction report revision suggests a negative revision to GDP. Construction Spending Month-Over-Month December 2025 Construction Spending Total: +0.3 percent Nonresidential: -0.5 percent Residential: +1.5 percent Public: -0.5 percent Private: +0.5 percent Commercial: -0.4 percent The jump in residential is interesting. But the net was an expected 0.3 …
Over 50% of earnings comes from hyperscalers, but all the hyperscalers are developing their own chips. So not only will Nvidia lose half their customers, but also gain competitors. PE ratio of 50 should shrink under 20. — Thomas Anderson (@OrderAmidChaos) February 25, 2026 $NVDA is now up only 0.6%, compared to 2.5% when the …
“Probably not the best sign for home sales.” 👇🏼 https://t.co/w7rVKqK4AU — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) February 2, 2026 New House Prices have dropped below Existing Homes for the first time in history 🚨🤯 pic.twitter.com/PGQ9rQlIvi — Barchart (@Barchart) February 2, 2026 Foreclosure rates have continued their double-digit surge across the country, up 21% from last year. …
Monthly flow of net immigration: 🟢 Reagan: +50,000 🟢 Bush 1: +55,000 🟢 Clinton: +67,000 🟢 Bush 2: +75,000 🟢 Obama: +68,000 🟢 Trump 1: +40,000 🟢 Biden: +200,000 🔴 Trump 2: -145,000 First administration since the 1920s with a net negative flow of monthly… — End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) January 15, 2026 The U.S. experienced …
🤝 https://t.co/0Z9zz27SCG — OVcrypto (@OVcrypto) January 4, 2026
Santa rally turning into Santa chop — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) December 29, 2025 From @SubuTrade : pic.twitter.com/w6KfyMZwDf — Barchart (@Barchart) December 29, 2025 THE S&P500 7,000 MIRAGE Wall Street is not telling you this. The equity risk premium just inverted to negative 0.69 percent. Stocks are now mathematically expected to underperform risk free Treasuries. This has …
A retired Tennessee policeman who spent more than a month in jail over an anti-Trump Facebook post is suing the authorities responsible for his arrest. Attorneys for Larry Bushart, 61, filed a lawsuit in federal court Wednesday against a sheriff, an investigator and Perry County, which lies about halfway between Nashville and Memphis. The suit …
Weak demand, falling property investment, and slumping consumption. China’s retail sales and industrial output missed forecasts in November, highlighting weak domestic demand. Fixed-asset and property investment slumped further, marking the sharpest downturn since 2020. Policymakers pledged support, but analysts remain cautious as consumption and jobs stay under pressure. https://invezz.com/news/2025/12/15/chinas-economic-slowdown-deepens-in-november-as-weak-demand-weigh-on-growth/ h/t -Sliced-
Jerome Powell on the housing market: – “The housing market faces some really significant challenges and I don’t know that a 25-basis point decline in the Federal Funds Rate is going to make much of a difference for people.” – “Housing supply is low, many people have very, very low-rate mortgages from the pandemic period.” …
by confoundedinterest17 The US economy is goin’ home! The hysteria about tariffs is nonexistant. Latest estimate: 3.5 percent — December 05, 2025 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on December 5, down from 3.8 percent on December 4. After this morning’s personal income …
The Legacy Media’s NEGATIVE Coverage: Rahmanullah Lakanwal: 85% RFK Jr: 94% JD Vance: 88% Elon Musk: 96% Kash Patel: 97% Kristi Noem: 87% Tulsi Gabbard: 98% Pete Hegseth: 100% President Trump: 92% So telling… The Legacy Media is the enemy of the people. The Legacy Media’s NEGATIVE Coverage: Rahmanullah Lakanwal: 85% RFK Jr: 94%JD Vance: …
This isn’t a healthy steepener; rather, it’s a front-end stalemate. Bills remain pinned above 4% while 2s glide lower, so the spread improves mechanically without signaling real easing of funding conditions. The brief positive blip in January signaled markets briefly priced a faster cut-path than the bill complex would allow; but that died as administered-rate …
Question… If 3M is reporting negative cash flow like this…What does that tell you? https://t.co/Yld8zSeiUT pic.twitter.com/hE8sXEBWP0 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) October 6, 2025 Have they checked the tariff shelf? pic.twitter.com/VMWwilYEAX — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) October 6, 2025 Tariffs weigh on US manufacturing as activity contracts for 7th straight month WASHINGTON – US factory activity shrank in …
BREAKING 🚨: Coca-Cola $KO Negative Free Cash Flows for the first time this century 🤯 pic.twitter.com/AwJcVihbmF — Barchart (@Barchart) October 3, 2025
So many indicators all pointing in one direction. pic.twitter.com/Mb0acTBoQp — Alan Boyce (@AlanBoyce47) September 23, 2025 so are business and professional services.. pic.twitter.com/LVp0SPEILF — Gavin Campbell (@steelbridgecap) September 24, 2025 The layoffs are coming.They know it. “We are at serious risk of already being behind the curve in addressing deteriorating labor market conditions. Should these …
CoreWeave’s strategy is a ticking time bomb for the AI market. It relies entirely on debt to fund operations while inflating valuations through compute-for-equity deals. The illusion of growth props up investor confidence, but when borrowing stalls, collapse will be sudden and brutal. Nvidia-backed CoreWeave $CRWV loses 24 cents on every dollar in sales. The …
via notayesmanseconomics Just when we thought that today would be about the French vote of confidence Japan has rather stepped forward. Along the way it has confirmed one of my themes as it received some better economic news. Japan’s economy expanded in the three months through June, the government confirmed in a revised report, as …
Home prices are about to turn negative again. I illustrated the last several year of home prices to show what's under way. pic.twitter.com/OZGqCtMypQ — Mike Simonsen 🐉 (@mikesimonsen) August 16, 2025 Transfer of power to the buyers. 🤙🙌 pic.twitter.com/mTIec4zllk — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 17, 2025
Tin foil hat: This would be the time to come out with a negative headline pic.twitter.com/TZo3FRSBKS — Kang (@thuhkang) August 12, 2025 🚨OH MY LORD: NVIDIA and Microsoft now account for 15.4% of the S&P 500's market cap, an all-time high. Never in the modern history of financial markets have two companies had such a …
Western Union $WU talked about it on their last earnings call:https://t.co/hUCMS2dajC — Eric Finnigan (@EricFinnigan) August 3, 2025 Immigrants are fleeing the US workforce in historic numbers. The ripple effects are stark. “This year the United States may experience a net outflow of immigrants for the first time in over 50 years … For the year …
*SWISS CENTRAL BANK CUTS KEY INTEREST RATE BY 25BPS TO 0.0%, LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2022$CHF 🇨🇭🇨🇭 pic.twitter.com/Ajfw639gAz — Investing.com (@Investingcom) June 19, 2025 Zero yields are back! For those who believed zero and negative interest rates were something of the past. It already happened again, even without a new economic or financial crisis. The Swiss …
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index fell for a second straight month to its lowest level in four months. The index sank to 40.5 this month from 44.6 in April, falling short of the 45.1 forecast. The latest reading marks the 18th consecutive month the index has contracted. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) May 30, 2025 Hedge …