Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Switzerland’s Negative Yields Are Back And It’s a Global Red Flag, Not a Local Anomaly A remarkable event just unfolded quietly in global bond markets Swiss government bonds with maturities up to 4 years are once again offering negative yields. Investors are literally paying the Swiss government for the privilege of lending them money. While …
Appreciate the critical comments. More context was needed for this post. • This policy was proposed to a 35 yr old• Pitched as the best wealth tool• Told they could borrow whenever Not all insurance is bad. This was not remotely suitable. — Ryan Greiser, CFP® (@Greiser) May 11, 2025
“Deutsche Bank’s forecast points to a sharp deterioration in S&P 500 earnings growth, with Q2 expected to turn negative and a deeper contraction anticipated later in 2025 if tariffs persist, marking a stark divergence from the more optimistic bottom-up consensus.” – @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/zRShvKWuSp — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) May 8, 2025 “.. We’re seeing pushback …
pic.twitter.com/6Df3mNi1VJ — Patrick Webb (@Patrickwebb) April 30, 2025
S&P 500 earnings revisions have hit extremely negative levels pic.twitter.com/6cbNSE4GHa — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) April 29, 2025 Is this all just a bear market rally? Time will tell. The average bear market rally lasts 44 days and yields a 14.1% return (before new lows are made). pic.twitter.com/pSaXPNSMj4 — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) April 29, …
Global trade outlook is deteriorating: The World Trade Organization expects world merchandise trade to fall -0.2% in 2025, down from +2.7% growth expected at the beginning of the year. This would follow the +2.9% growth recorded in 2024. North American trade is set to be hit… pic.twitter.com/c6h7dlUv4h — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 23, 2025 …
There goes the euro again. I can't stress this enough: The US dollar is at a critical turning point, in my view. We're on the verge of entering negative territory in the 10-year rolling performance of the DXY index. pic.twitter.com/uBcv9cePPQ — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) April 16, 2025 Welcome to the era of gold. The …
EU expects US tariffs to remain as discussions make little progress. Markets are selling down from their highs on this headline. pic.twitter.com/FIrILhXEr9 — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) April 15, 2025 EU 🇪🇺 EXPECTS US TARIFFS TO REMAIN AS TALKS MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS – BBG “US officials indicated that the 20% “reciprocal” tariffs — which have …
BREAKING: The Nasdaq officially turns negative, erasing a +2.5% gain 3 hours after the open. pic.twitter.com/uMSdXlKo5M — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 14, 2025 Every rally is sold into. Investors have no confidence in anything right now so they use market strength to exit positions. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) April 14, 2025
by Mike Shedlock Economists expected a $15.0 billion rise in consumer credit. The Fed reported -$0.8 billion. The Bloomberg Econoday consensus outlook “Expected up another strong $15.0 billion in February after rising by $18.1 billion in January.” January was revised from $18.1 billion to $8.9 billion. That’s a net miss of $25 billion. Real Consumer …
Astounding. Reporters at RFK hearing have pre-written negative headlines. pic.twitter.com/CY5VGXJH2O — Calley Means (@calleymeans) January 29, 2025 The fake news is just getting faker. — Paul A. Szypula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) January 29, 2025
The market’s reckless exuberance is running on free-money steroids. Back to the all time high. Breadth negative on both exchanges. pic.twitter.com/Unu50o96zo — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) January 22, 2025 It's true that I enjoy financial experimentation. I like watching it, I don't enjoy participating. pic.twitter.com/z1Tbxu64yR — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) January 22, 2025 Let's do this. pic.twitter.com/eNWBHDiT41 — Mac10 …
President Trump is putting a freeze on Government Jobs. A large percent of job growth the past year. In 2024, government employment saw an increase of 438,000 jobs. Who is ready for NEGATIVE Job prints in 2025? pic.twitter.com/r81dgwksVY — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) January 21, 2025
The S&P 500 is at the same level today as it was on the day after the election. It has gone nowhere for two months, amid EPIC levels of bull shit. New highs – lows peaked the week of the election and are now negative. The election gap that was a bear trap on the …
Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate moves lower, real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 1.3 percent to -0.7 percent, while the nowcast of fourth-quarter real government expenditures growth increased from 2.6 percent to 2.9 percent. #math pic.twitter.com/3xqmr0b3YB — Market Rebellion (@MarketRebels) January 2, 2025 Interesting We’ve almost given back the whole bounce since Trump was …
It is widely known among scientists that light sometimes appears to exit a material before it has even entered. This odd “negative time” phenomenon was long seen as an illusion caused by the way waves become distorted by matter. Over time, many considered it a harmless quirk of physics, dismissed without much further investigation. Now, …
Corporate bankruptcies and defaults accelerating, unemployment continues to rise, and spreads blow out. Especially, after Powell said “we’ve avoided recession” and S&P Global is expecting the speculative-grade default rate to fall to 3.5% by September 2025. Moody’s pointed out… https://t.co/9tn3htvQQI pic.twitter.com/kPNU1t3OTz — WarnTracker 2.0 (@j77324) December 21, 2024 This is concerning: Non-farm payroll employment in …
We've never seen the S&P 500 at all time highs with breadth this negative. Let's do this. pic.twitter.com/3GuAVcn1l7 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 13, 2024 Linkhttps://t.co/A9JxrqvurY pic.twitter.com/8qaDVxDPM3 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 13, 2024 ⚠️CENTRAL BANKS ARE CUTTING RATES AS IF GLOBAL RECESSION IS HERE⚠️ Bank of Canada cut rates by 0.50% on Wednesday for the …
Citing the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act as an achievement tells you everything you need to know. I’m surprised they didn’t praise the Afghanistan bugout while they were at it. h/t King_in_a_castle_84
THE EURO SWAP CASH BASIS HAS JUST WENT NEGATIVE FOR THE VERY FIRST TIME SINCE 1999 WHENEVER THIS GOES NEGATIVE IT MEANS THAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING LIQUIDITY ISSUES, ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND OVERALL MAJOR ECONOMIC PROBLEMS THIS BUBBLE IS ABOUT TO POP… This is incredible – simultaneously… pic.twitter.com/B3APANZ7fm — fuzzyfacts (@CostcoPM) November 10, 2024 Dow Jones …
If they truly were the same then why is the coverage so lopsided? Coverage has been fairly even since before before him when journalists would try to stay neutral. If the establishment doesn’t care, why are they this bias towards one side? https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/3205606/tv-news-lopsided-trump-85-negative-harris-78-positive/ h/t Wookie9991
Compared to last times negative 99.5% Ford Crushed After EV and Warranty Costs Hit Earnings https://t.co/IMFu4G4HiA — Nobody Special (@JG_Nuke) October 29, 2024 h/t neyo7081
by Mike Shedlock Industrial production declined 0.3 percent in September. Negative revisions lopped off another 0.5 percent. The Bloomberg consensus was a decline of 0.1 percent. Factoring in negative and positive revisions the decline was about 0.5 percent. Blame the Hurricanes The Fed blames the hurricanes in its September Industrial Production Report. Industrial production (IP) decreased …
Network coverage of former President Trump has been overwhelmingly negative since the second assassination attempt against him Sunday, according to one report. Analysts at the Media Research Center (MRC) reviewed 69 minutes of campaign coverage on the ABC, CBS and NBC evening newscasts between Sept. 15 and Sept. 17. MRC reported that although the thwarted …
"Americans are consuming more capital than they produce. US national net savings by households, businesses and the government have been negative since 1Q23, for only the third time since 1947. The other two times were 2008-11 and 2020." Gavekal pic.twitter.com/jWUcaT66Md — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 18, 2024 BREAKING: Total consumer credit jumped by $25.5 …
via notayesmanseconomics I thought that I would look at energy prices in Europe and we start with the general theme that high electricity prices are causing deindustrialisation. In fact when one looks at the numbers the ongoing recession has caused a depression. We have become used to numbers like this. In July 2024, compared with …
Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 142,000 during August, down from 89,000 in July and below the 161,000 consensus forecast. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, as expected. However, the “real” unemployment rate edged up to 7.9%, its highest reading since October 2021. The previous two months saw substantial downward revisions. The BLS cut July’s total …
by Mike Shedlock The BEA’s initial GDI growth estimate for the first quarter was 1.5 percent, later revised to 1.2 percent. I expect further negative revisions. Here’s a “What if” take. The math is a bit complicated, and I made some assumptions that the BEA is in the ballpark with its starting point. So take …
41% of Russell 2000 companies now have negative earnings This number is up more than 2x since 2006 And is comparable to levels seen during the peak of 2008 Financial Crisis This is not sustainable pic.twitter.com/CTN5a9ayaw — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 8, 2024 Certainly not ruling out the summer 07 playback of a rally to …
by Mike Shedlock ADP data shows year-over-year payroll growth is negative 88,000 for small corporations sized 20-49. Trends are negative in all but very large corporations. Data from ADP, chart by Mish I created some new charts today from a download of the ADP National Employment Report for July. Year-Over-Year Payroll Growth Key Points Trends are very …