Latest estimate: -3.7 percent — April 01, 2025
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -3.7 percent on April 1, down from -2.8 percent on March 28. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -1.4 percent. After this morning’s construction spending report from the US Census Bureau and incorporation of the available March data into the models’ dynamic factor model, including manufacturing data from Institute for Supply Management and measures of consumer attitudes from two surveys, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s forecasts of first-quarter real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth declined from 1.5 percent to 0.4 percent.
🚨US RECESSION IS HERE ALREADY:
Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast for the quarter TUMBLED to -3.7%, down from -2.8% on March 28.
Adjusted for gold imports and exports, it is now tracking at -1.4%.
The economy is sharply CONTRACTING.
Will this weakness head into the second quarter? pic.twitter.com/E663lnmkVg
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) April 2, 2025
h/t 10^33