Repo failures surged 50%, swap spreads hit record lows. Credit card delinquency rates are reaching 2008’s levels. When is the rug pull coming?

Commodities are not feeling very inflationary right now. https://t.co/cS1Yveed7h pic.twitter.com/LbdPayQmSx

— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) November 11, 2024

I'm keeping a close eye on 5 year and 10 year breakeven inflation. We saw a similar breakout in 2008 when inflation expectations were the complete opposite of the real economy. https://t.co/8T6u9d8NV4 pic.twitter.com/7RTwh6ApRm

— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) November 10, 2024

Credit card delinquency rates rising for young people… pic.twitter.com/i59FBTfG4u

— Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) November 11, 2024

One could have made that same argument in the middle of 2007. At that time, the Fed kept rates too high for too long (well above the 2y Treasury) and created big problems in 2008. If the Fed had started cutting rates in mid-2007, they could have saved a lot of pain in 2008. https://t.co/W62TXKkewH pic.twitter.com/bJaqt2hNqr

— Tom McClellan (@McClellanOsc) November 11, 2024

Repo fails jumped by 50% in the latest weekly data, which just so happens to be the same week swap spreads plunged to record lows. It was also when the US economy, at least its labor data, took a turn for the worse. Understanding the connections between all these money and macro indications is critical.