Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Office CMBS delinquency rate hit 12.3-12.34% in early 2026, new all-time high. This beats previous 2008 GFC peak of around 10.7%. Rate surged from roughly 1.6% in mid-2022, more than 7x increase in under 4 years. Downtown offices suffer most due to hybrid work and high vacancies around 20%. Many loans from low-rate pandemic era …
JPMorgan's Dimon: Obviously, gas prices going up going to hurt people a little bit, but they still have money to spend and they still have jobs… I hear people say they were not imminent threat. These people have been doing something bad for 47 years. These are bad people that… pic.twitter.com/xgNAHo1LHy — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April …
by confoundedinterest17 We are seeing the aftermath of the Federal government’s fiscal response to the Covid outbreak of 2020. Home prices exploded following The Federal government’s spending spree. The end result? US housing is simply unaffordable for millions of households. Not really surprising given the soaring home prices following the Covid Federal spending spree.
We haven't even had a crisis and credit card loans are already 12.7% serious delinquency. What does this mean? https://t.co/4erneMeCcY — Jon Brooks (@jonbrooks) February 24, 2026 The CEO of McDonald's says that we're now living in "a two-tier economy." " If you're upper income earning over $100,000 things are good, stock markets are near all …
".. lenders have stopped pretending .. .. The delinquency rate for office loans in commercial mortgage-backed securities climbed to a record 12.34% in January, the highest level since .. 2000." 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/d3N92Hr4YR — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) February 17, 2026 Lenders to commercial real-estate owners are reaching the breaking point, calling in tens of billions …
US student loan delinquencies are exploding: The number student loan borrowers that are severely delinquent is up to a record 3.62 million. The number of federal loan recipients 271+ days past due is now 8 TIMES higher than the pre-2020 average. This comes as the grace period… pic.twitter.com/kCliDUSadP — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 3, …
Commercial delienquent obligations in a parapbolic uptrend pic.twitter.com/BdsleKWmKu — Ari.Is.Investing (@InFoTheLongTerm) October 5, 2025 The office and multifamily sectors of commercial real estate loans got further bludgeoned in August, despite large-scale extend-and-pretend and forbearance deals executed in the hopes for better times and lower interest rates and more demand so that lenders don’t end up …
Sales of Heavy Trucks are collapsing, which has *usually* foreshadowed an upcoming recession 🚨🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/6Yhm79I8H4 — Barchart (@Barchart) September 18, 2025 30-10YR Yield Spread Rising. Look at the chart…. and tell me what you think! pic.twitter.com/NmoDGkE272 — Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) September 19, 2025 US unemployment rate for ages 16-24 is 10.5%, per WaPo — unusual_whales …
Delinquency rates are now ~1.5 percentage points above the 2008 Financial Crisis peak. At the same time, prime auto loan delinquencies rose to their highest in 15 years. Meanwhile, the total value of auto loans in the US jumped $13 billion, to a record $1.66 trillion in Q2 2025. An auto debt crisis is brewing. …
by confoundedinterest17 US Q3 GDP fell slightly in Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow latest revision to 3.0% from 3.5% last week. The source of the decline in GDP? Equipment investment fell to 8.9. From 11.7. Hard to sustain high levels of equipment investment. On a related note, office CMBS just hit all-time high. Yes, higher than the …
by Michael Did you know that U.S. households are carrying $1.18 trillion in credit card debt? Considering the fact that the average rate of interest on credit card balances is now over 20 percent, that is not good news at all. Sadly, most of the country is just barely scraping by from month to month in …
Homeownership is slipping through the floorboards. First-time buyers now account for just 21.8 percent of total home purchases, the lowest share ever recorded. That’s down from 34 percent in 2019 and signals a deeper affordability breakdown. Existing home sales are projected to reach 4030000 in 2025, marking the slowest housing market in more than 25 …
In the second quarter of 2025, the auto finance market crossed a threshold that’s hard to ignore. Total auto loan debt in the United States has now reached $1.63 trillion, officially surpassing the student loan balance for the first time. According to Edmunds, 19.3% of new car buyers committed to monthly payments of $1,000 or …
Today, the feds start collecting on 5 million+ defaulted student loan borrowers with collections. We have a 20.5% delinquency rate (90 days+) – highest ever recorded (TransUnion) Tax refunds will be seized through the Treasury Offset Program. Social Security benefits cut by up… — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) May 5, 2025 More Than Half of Subprime …
by confoundedinterest17 CMBS delinquencies are on the rise. The delinquency rate for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) tied to office properties reached 10.4 percent in November 2024, approaching the 10.7 percent peak reached during the 2008 financial crisis. The ascent is the fastest two-year increase on record, with rates climbing 8.8 percentage points since late 2022, …
Commodities are not feeling very inflationary right now. https://t.co/cS1Yveed7h pic.twitter.com/LbdPayQmSx — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) November 11, 2024 I'm keeping a close eye on 5 year and 10 year breakeven inflation. We saw a similar breakout in 2008 when inflation expectations were the complete opposite of the real economy. https://t.co/8T6u9d8NV4 pic.twitter.com/7RTwh6ApRm — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) November 10, 2024 …
C&I lending slowed down in tandem with residential lending during the 01′ Recession and Great Recession and didn’t recover for years. They’re connected/correlated markets. https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/commercial-lending-has-almost-completely-recovered-from-the-great-recession-and-faster-than-after-2001-recession/ h/t Mrbumboleh
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS Large banks are doing better, although delinquencies have risen quite bit recently. Still concerning for the 4400 other banks. Delinquency transition rates for credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages increased slightly in the second quater of 2024, per the Fed. Over the last year, approximately 9.1% of credit card balances and 8.0% of auto …
Had an intro call this week with one of the top 10 CLO Managers in this list (not Arbor). Despite their data looking pretty clean, they mentioned there will be a lot deals coming to a fork in the road in the next 6 months. I keep saying this over and over, but the delinquency,… …
Credit card delinquency rates have been broadly rising since Q2 2021. The following figure shows the percentage of U.S. credit card debt in delinquency. This variable grew in every region we examined for the last three to seven quarters. For each region, the percentage of debt in delinquency has increased at least 32.2% in relative …
US consumer borrowing has ground to a halt. Tapped out? pic.twitter.com/KH335Qw4lD — PPG (@PPGMacro) May 29, 2024 The recent data on U.S. consumer borrowing paints a concerning picture of financial stability. Delinquency rates, which Austan Goolsbee of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank highlighted as a critical indicator, have indeed surged in early 2024. This uptick …
The New York Federal Reserve’s latest report sends shockwaves through the financial world as a staggering 12.9% of households in April express fears of falling into delinquency within the next three months. This grim statistic marks the highest level since the tumultuous days of April 2020, heightening concerns about the looming debt crisis. What’s particularly …
The Chinese government is tightening the noose on debt defaulters, imposing stringent penalties that include restrictions on high-speed rail travel and luxury accommodations. This move is part of a broader crackdown on unpaid bills. What Happened: Beijing is resorting to severe actions against those who fail to settle their debts. Measures include salary seizures, barring …
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s report reveals alarming trends, with almost 3.5% of card balances overdue by at least 30 days, the highest on record. This surge in delinquencies, coupled with rising minimum payments and increased credit card balances, underscores the growing financial strain on US households. BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US credit card delinquency rates …
Office Vacancy Rates expected to hit highest level in history during Q1 2024 pic.twitter.com/kU48krStdE — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) April 2, 2024 Rising Commercial Real Estate Delinquency Rates Delinquency rates for commercial real estate have risen during each of the past three recessionary periods, and they are currently on the rise again. This chart shows …
Highest YoY Rise in Credit Card Delinquency Rates Below, you'll find a chart showing the year-over-year (YoY) change in credit card delinquency rates. As of Q3 2023, the YoY change stands at 43%. This rapid rise has never occurred. Credit card delinquency rates are currently… pic.twitter.com/FUWyLsmsvW — Reef Insights (@ReefInsights) February 12, 2024 U.S. 🇺🇲 …
Canada is in a RECESSION! "Mortgage delinquency rates ROSE 52.3% in the last quarter of 2023" Ontario mortgage delinquency rates are at 135% !?! "Delinquency rates for non-mortgages including credit cards rose almost 30%" This is absolutely nuts… 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/1kBguAkcWD — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) March 27, 2024 More Canadians are beginning to crack under …
Notably, commercial real estate delinquency rates have been on the rise, with a large contributor being office real estate. The RTO company mandates have not brought occupancy levels back to where they were previously: https://t.co/afY0mHeh88 — Reef Insights (@ReefInsights) March 19, 2024 Rising delinquency rates in commercial real estate present a growing concern for both …
From hefty monthly car payments averaging $726 to insurance costs hovering around $167, and don’t forget about the money we shell out for gasoline – around $150 a month. It all adds up to a staggering total of $1,043 each month just to keep our wheels turning. Now, here’s the kicker: despite these mounting expenses, …
Additionally, US consumer SERIOUS (90+ days) delinquency rates in auto loans and credit card debt for the most productive cohort (18-39) have been the highest since the Great Financial Crisis The mighty US consumer is getting through some notable issueshttps://t.co/puJCEOhOzW — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) March 11, 2024