Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by confoundedinterest17 Yes, it is the Ides of March. No, not Nikki Haley trying to sabotage Donald Trump’s campaign after Nikki got clobbered in all but two state primaries. So in a sour grapes move, Haley didn’t endorse Trump. But the Ides of March refers to the stabbing of Julius Caesar (led by Brutus). Once …
Sharp increase in mortgage borrowers filing for bankruptcy called ‘worrying trend’ More Canadians are beginning to crack under the pressure of increased mortgage payments, new data on consumer credit showed today. Article content Mortgage delinquency rates were up more than 50 per cent at the end of last year from the year before, with two …
by confoundedinterest17 I think the Biden Presidency is nicely summed-up by Biden confusing France’s President Macron with former French President Mitterand. Particularly since Mitterand died in 1996. Is Biden seeing dead people?? Anyway, the Biden economy and his Bidenomic strategy is based on massive debt expansion, both public and private debt. Household Debt reached $17.5 Trillion in Fourth Quarter; …
by Michael According to the New York Fed, total household debt in the United States increased by 212 billion dollars during the fourth quarter of 2023. It is now sitting at a grand total of 17.5 trillion dollars. I suppose the good news is that we aren’t 34 trillion dollars in debt like the federal …
Credit card spending has taken a nosedive, officially entering contraction territory, despite a reported 35% surge in retail sales above pre-pandemic levels. The discrepancy between retail sales growth and the significant decline in credit card transactions reveals a stark contrast in consumer behavior. Amidst a backdrop of soaring prices, with a 20% increase since before …
by confoundedinterest17 Is it sundown for the US commercial real estate market? According to Trepp, the volume of CMBS delinquency increased 49.4% during 10 months through October. Looking for more? This piece has been taken from Trepp and Commercial Real Estate Direct’s Q3 2023 Quarterly Data Review. Access the magazine here. The volume of CMBS loans …
Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/delallsa.htm TLDRS Delinquency Rates on Loans and Leases at Commercial Banks are spiking! Credit Card delinquencies up! All consumer loan deliquesces are up! Delinquency Rate on All Loans, All Commercial Banks is up! https://dismal-jellyfish.com/banks-alert-delinquency-rates-surge/ h/t Dismal-Jellyfish
DC Commercial Real Estate in Crisis: Dupont Circle Office Building Sells at 77% Discount, Plunging $72M from 2016 Price. The $21M transaction is over $50M less than 2019, with the previous owner, a co-working company, defaulting on a $65M loan. Amidst reports of owners surrendering keys to lenders, the city is in the early stages …
As Americans grapple with average monthly payments of $500 for student loans and $740 for new cars, resulting in the average American spending a staggering $1,240 each month just to finance a car and manage student debt, with delinquency rates expected to keep climbing. Meanwhile, the median homebuyer is spending $2,900 on monthly home payments. …
Delinquency rates on credit card loans and auto loans are rising. But delinquency rates on mortgages as near all time lower. Why? Because so many mortgages are locked-in to low rates. Truly a unique time. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 11, 2023
The 10-year note yield is skyrocketing and now at 4.63%, its highest since June 2007. Since last week’s Fed meeting, the 10-year note yield is up 35 basis points. Since the last Fed rate hike in July, the 10-year note yield is up 60 basis points. Interest rates on just about… pic.twitter.com/7bsPQk30ma — The Kobeissi …
45% of student loan borrowers expect to go delinquent when payments resume on October 1st. That's not good. pic.twitter.com/YOgF4udx67 — Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti) August 28, 2023 Rent moratorium over ✅️Real rates at 15-yr highs ✅️Student loan moratorium over 🔜 Discretionary spending is circling the drain. Can someone say deflation risk? — Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti) August …
Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Bank. The “resilient consumer” choochoo train is slowly but surely headed towards the cliff. We have been saying it almost forever, but the train is closing in slowly for the big crash. NORDSTROM: “.. we have seen delinquencies rising gradually and they are now above pre-pandemic levels, …
Severe delinquency for auto loans is highest since at least 2006. Yet, the jobs market is strong. So basically, no one has any idea what's going on. [via Wall Street Journal] pic.twitter.com/i0SvkjCrvB — Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) August 21, 2023
SERIOUS DELINQUENCY UPDATE pic.twitter.com/VKDtgWWetI — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 10, 2023 Delinquency rates on credit card loans from small lenders are now at an all time high of 7.1%. That's above the 6.0% peak in 2008 and up sharply from 3.8% in 2020. pic.twitter.com/4WHnGUOF6w — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 2, 2023 And now …
Great chart from PPG Macro showing delinquency issues beyond the large lenders. It seems that small lenders are increasingly exposed to overly risky loans. Commercial real estate loans are yet another example. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 2, 2023 Throughout ‘23 US default risk …
For the first time in history, total credit card debt is about to cross $1 trillion. Since Q4 2020, total credit card debt is up over $200 billion. Americans currently hold a record $986 billion in credit card debt. 2/7 pic.twitter.com/L2cfwDWWEY — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 1, 2023 According to a survey conducted in …
DELINQUENCY ON ALL LOANS 👇 pic.twitter.com/FDnsFmO14F — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) July 22, 2023
Automotive Credit Corp, a subprime lender, has begun cutting off select car dealers due to “ongoing concerns regarding adverse market conditions” This is exhausting — Car Dealership Guy (@GuyDealership) July 6, 2023 Serious Auto Loan Delinquency among people under the age of 30 is approaching Global Financial Crisis levels pic.twitter.com/gUIWILJ1sQ — Barchart (@Barchart) May 31, …
Source: wolfstreet h/t BoatSurfer600
