2/ Oil prices increased from $3 to $30 per barrel between 1970 and 1982
During that time, US home prices tripled, going from $22,000 to $66,000 pic.twitter.com/56xqUpxGpA
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 19, 2023
4/ Many economists suggest that inflation is following a similar path to the 1970s
Back then, there were 3 waves of inflation
If this is extrapolated to today, some argue we're still due for another wave of inflation
H/T @LHSummers pic.twitter.com/kqYVz5P9yq
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 19, 2023
6/ Energy has been the main driver of inflation since 2020
Not because it's the largest component of the CPI, but due to its high volatility pic.twitter.com/zFzMRMOfwl
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 19, 2023
8/ The correlation between oil prices and inflation is strong because of oil’s volatility and its impact on inflation
For a 2nd wave of inflation, oil prices need to keep rising rapidly pic.twitter.com/cJHhlfk6mk
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 19, 2023
10/ Fortunately, the US is now the world’s largest oil producer
So it can increase production to compensate for any future oil shortage, like in 2022 pic.twitter.com/WtcSkvF6sH
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 19, 2023
12/ The possibility of a recession is a problem for oil demand
Odds of a recession predicted by the yield curve are currently at the highest level in 40 years
Every time the probability has gone above 40%, the economy has seen a recession
Except in 1967 pic.twitter.com/q6ruLGUuX8
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 19, 2023
14/ The $2 trillion in excess savings from 2021 have been depleted
Indicating that the helicopter money is gone
And the economy is back to pre-Pandemic levels pic.twitter.com/fCNoxvhSqC
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 19, 2023
16/ In 2007, oil spiked from $60 to $120 heading into the worst downturn since the Great Depression
Oil prices bottomed when the Fed began cutting rates
A similar situation could occur again, which would crush the struggling US consumer, precipitating a recession pic.twitter.com/Zwq7VqZMCh
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 19, 2023
18/ The eye for finding opportunities in this environment will separate people who benefit vs get hurt from a monetary angle
That is exactly our mission is at GOT – to help you find those opportunities & navigate market risks
Get you free 7 day trial at https://t.co/QVEBP3OF4s
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 19, 2023