Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The mayor of San Francisco discreetly approved a bill to create a fund that may eventually grant each of the city’s eligible black residents $5 million in reparations. Mayor Daniel Lurie quietly signed the incredibly divisive Reparations Bill just two days before Christmas. The ordinance establishes a reparations fund, as recommended by the city’s African …
by confoundedinterest17 Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. We did get fooled again! The problem with the national debt can’t be fixed with Mitch McConnell still in the Senate and too many Obama-era political hacks still in Washington DC. The Obama/Biden era began in 2009 and it still exists despite Trump winning …
by confoundedinterest17 I just watched Dennis Quaid in “Reagan”. Excellent film. But it reminded me of how Reagan sank the Soviet Union: by outspending the Soviet Union on the arms race. It worked! The Soviet Union, hamstrung by grossly inefficent central planning, couldn’t keep up and collapsed under President George H.W.Bush. Fast forward to today. …
by confoundedinterest17 Tennessee Ernie Ford sang it best. $36 tons of debt. Another day older and deeper in debt. Notice virually no political candidate will acknowledge or discuss. The federal government spent $1.8 trillion more than it collected in tax revenue in fiscal year 2024, according to figures released Friday by U.S. Treasury Department. Congress has run …
by confoundedinterest17 The Presidential and Vice Presidential debates thus far feature weak moderators asking lame questions. For example, there are still 97 hostages stll held by Hamas and what would the candidates do to get them released? (Hint: Trump/Vance would have sensible responses. Harris would just laugh and say she was raised in a middle class family …
Calls to Embrace Reform But many economists and financial experts say that public policymakers need to embrace reform. “What we need is not just a smart Social Security fix, but we need to have a radical reform of our fiscal system,” Kotlikoff said. “It’s not doodling around the current system.” Indeed, he has proposed several …
by confoundedinterest17 Hey Big Spender! (Federal Government). The US government now pays out on average $3bn in interest expenses per day…If the Fed cuts interest rates by 1%-point and the entire yield curve declines by 1%-point, then daily interest expenses will decline from $3bn per day to $2.5bn per day. Even worse, unfunded Federal liabilities total …
by confoundedinterest17 Too much debt? Kamala Harris doesn’t think so. She is proposing economic policies costing $1. 7 trillion without sufficicent offsets. Harris is putting the US on the path to default, following numerous other badly managed nations, like Ukraine and Greece. And much of Latin America. The US is already at $35+ trillion with unfunded liabilties totalling …
by confoundedinterest17 This scene from the film “McCabe and Mrs. Miller” sums up our political plight quite nicley. Politicians spend like crazy to stay in power (Biden/Harris) are excellent examples). Politicians promises endless money, then shoot the economy. The US is broke and relies on printing money and boowed funds to stay afloat. Harris wants to …
by confoundedinterest17 Here is a chart of Non-commerciak net positions for US Treasuries, currently showing more bailing out of Treasury positions. Has the world sours on DC’s fiscal train wreck and The Fed? Of course, budget deficits are a disaster with Biden/Congress spending like drunken sailors in port and showing no signs of letting up. …
You know what does it mean and what politicians will do 👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/LM36umi7CK — Michal (@michal_1979) July 6, 2024 It works only as long as demographics are stable, which is not the case in Europe — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) July 6, 2024 Population Growth and Aging: On January 1, 2023, the European Union (EU) …
by confoundedinterest17 Too much debt should be the theme song for the US! Both for consumers and the Feral government (not a typo!) Consumer credit increased by +$6.403 billion in April, much softer than consensus estimate of +$10 billion … more notable, however, was March data, given initial read of +$6.274 billion was revised down to …
"Victory on inflation" Core PCE accelerates as government continues to print currency. pic.twitter.com/hxtOp0XAYl — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) May 28, 2024 The acceleration of Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) coupled with ongoing currency printing paints a grim economic picture. As the government increases its monetary supply, inflationary pressures intensify, impacting everyday consumers and eroding purchasing power. …
by confoundedinterest17 The US debt and Federal spending is out of control. As is entitlement spending. In 2007, the U.S. national debt was below $10 trillion, and the budget deficit was about $160 billion. Federal spending was about $3 trillion, and interest payments were approximately $400 billion. Then the numbers spiraled out of control. Yet Biden/Congress keep shoveling …
by confoundedinterest17 Paul Krugman and others are cheering the defeat of inflation (odd since it is on the rise again). But how does our Federal government “grow” the economy and inflation? Borrow and spend, baby! The Bureau of Economic Analysis just released Q4’s GDP update. The good news? US GDP grew by $334 billion. The …
by confoundedinterest17 The great Will Rogers once said he never met a man he didn’t like. US President Joe Biden and Democrats have never met a spending opportunity they didn’t like (except for US border security, of course). Under “Deficit Joe” Biden, Federal budget deficits have soared! And deficits are projected to grow! Over the …
by confoundedinterest17 Yes, the US is engulfed in a fiscal inferno! US government debt is now bigger than the US economy. This was unseen until 2012 when debt surpassed GDP for the first time. In addition to almost $34 trillion in debt from our crazy spending, out-of-control government, we are on the hook for almost $213 TRILLION …
by confoundedinterest17 It‘s Biden’s Fiscal Inferno! Insane open borders, insane green spending, wars in Ukraine, Gaza and growing restlessness around Taiwan. Inflation. And a demented 81-year old President in charge. The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $381 billion so far into the 2024 fiscal year, which represents a 13% increase from this same time …
by confoundedinterest17 We are on a Highway To Hell! Massive Federal Budget deficits and staggering payments to Treasury from The Fed (losses on balance sheet) and $212 TRILLION in unfunded promises to the non-elites. Under Modern Monetary Theory (or print money without consequences), we are seeing trillion dollars budget deficits with no end in sight. Nothing …
by confoundedinterest17 The US economy is drowing in debt, going down, down, down. US Federal debt just hit $33.71 TRILLION. And unfunded liabilities (promises from Uncle Spam) are now $211 TRILLION. That is 526% of the the current debt load. Which means either lots of additional debt, higher tax rates or cuts in entitlements. The cost …
by confoundedinterest17 Joe Biden is the Buzz Lightyear of the economy … and not in a good way. Under Biden and the Congressional spending sprees, the US debt is going to infinity … and beyond! Twenty days. That’s how long it took the Biden administration to add another half-trillion dollars to the national debt. Bidenomics …
by confoundedinterest17 Well, it looks like Ukraine’s army is surrending in droves to Russian forces. Maybe this will end Biden’s obsession with doling billions of dollars to Ukraine. Nah, Biden will continue doling out billions to Ukraine, but this time it will be to rebuild Ukraine (while major US cities continue to rot). But in …
by confoundedinterest17 I ain’t never been to Spain, but the US under Biden is like Spain in terms of default risk. Actually, I have to Spain numerous times and love visiting Barcelona. But the US debt fiasco under Biden and Congressional spending sprees has led to … US credit default swap being priced worse than Spain’s …
by confoundedinterest17 Bidenomics is a train wreck. But unlike E. Palestine Ohio, the site of a train derailment and massive toxic spill (for which Biden has yet to visit), Bidenomics is a continuing train wreck. The first chart is the record decline in US net cash farm income. Now in negative growth! Second, US office …
by confoundedinterest17 Hellzapoppin under Bidenomics! And it isn’t a musical, but a tragedy. Between The Federal Reserve’s outrageous overreaction to Covid (printing like there was no tomorrow), and Biden’s massive spending spree (lots of moldy (green) spending, we have see horrid inflation. And The Fed trying (sort of) to combat inflation, we see that 30-year CONFORMING …
by confoundedinterest17 How badly has Bidenomics and generally Federal spending has crippled the US? An example. The interest on US Federal debt is approaching $1 TRILLION (and Biden/Democrats REFUSE to cut any spending, not that Republicans are much better). To show up how messed up this is, the EU’s defense budget (remember Ukraine?) is far …
by confoundedinterest17 Shot through the heart (of the economy), and they’re to blame. The Fed and Congress give government a bad name. When I see the faces of Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell, all I think of is …. the Minsky Moment brigade! From Zero debt in 1776 to $21 trillion in …
by confoundedinterest17 The US has passed the 32 trillion mark in national debt, and is going much, much higher. More like 32 tons on the back of taxpayers. When we add unfunded liabilities like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, the tab soars to $224.5 TRILLION. New data show that a growing number of U.S. firms are collapsing …
by confoundedinterest17 Its the 4th of July, American Independence Day from England, but under Biden and The Federal Reserve, Americans are DEPENDENT on debt and Federal spending. In other words, Americans are addicted to gov. First, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate index is up 150% under Biden. You can see the rapid rise in mortgage rates started …
