Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
This is the kind of post that makes you laugh and then check if the person is actually right. A trader on WallStreetBets is telling everyone to stop buying SPY options and use SPX options instead. The argument is pretty simple. SPX options are cash settled. No assignment risk. They can be traded overnight. And …
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter Retail risk appetite is at record levels: 0DTE options contracts now account for a record 48% of total retail options volume. This percentage has more than TRIPLED over the last 5 years. Furthermore, 0DTE options reflected a record 30% of total US options volume in May. By comparison, the 2022 high …
Big banks scream take profits right as the highs feel unbreakable BofA Warns It’s Time to ‘Take Profits’ as Red Flags Multiply (Bloomberg) — Investors should exercise caution regarding US stocks as an increasing number of “bear market signposts” point to an approaching top, according to Bank of America Securities. There are “too many red …
If space X is overvalued then RKLB is 5x worst. “Rklb is sitting at 81b market cap as of this morning. 81b… with negative income. They have roughly by my calcs 600x less payload to orbit than spacex… Yet the company is valued at 20x less than space X if space X is 1.5t to …
Easing bets get torched fast while inflation shock rewrites the entire Fed playbook… Things accelerate hard under new leadership and the soft landing crowd just got blindsided… Bull dreams dying quick and the pain train just left the station… cleveland's fed inflation model has been on point for a long time. looking ugly.https://t.co/LPsWVSK6sN pic.twitter.com/sktkd92xdp — …
Leveraged ETFs amplify daily moves so heavy volume usually signals aggressive short term speculation. Retail investors are piling into leveraged semiconductor ETFs at an unprecedented pace: Combined daily trading volume in the 3x leveraged short semiconductor ETF, $SOXS, and the 3x leveraged long semiconductor ETF, $SOXL, has surged to ~330 million shares, the highest in …
The Fed has no choice. If oil goes up to $150-200 it’s over. Yet we act as if Iran is obliterated and everything is awesome. This is complete lunacy. https://t.co/xRRCIi61UV — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) March 26, 2026 Markets are losing hope of any logical solution in the Middle East: pic.twitter.com/DgXPiTeIVE — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) March …
Something is breaking, and it is not isolated. It is spreading, layer by layer, system by system, market by market, and now governments are quietly telling people to change how they live. Start with the center of it all, the energy system. Iran just launched drone strikes on Kuwait’s largest refinery while Israel hit the …
https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-indices/weekend-us-tech-100-e1 A gap up early next week is good to enter puts imo $SPY. Have a good weekend pic.twitter.com/TchUKASg6U — JLoc (@JohnLoc18) February 6, 2026 We are suppose to get another government shutdown next week 😂 pic.twitter.com/bs3dIsd2RC — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) February 7, 2026 S&P PEG is 1.47x, for you retards unfamiliar with EPS growth pic.twitter.com/BcBUW1lYt7 …
Retail traders—often referred to as “dumb money”—are clearly not betting on the downside for equities. They usually trade leveraged ETFs on both sides, and in the last 4 instances when the “short” allocation was this low, they were wrong 3 times, with the SPX subsequently… pic.twitter.com/ysBOtsr9HM — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) February 2, 2026 Short sellers …
Traders placing record bets on dollar collapse – Bloomberg The greenback’s plunge has been attributed to market turmoil created by US President Donald Trump’s policies Traders are betting big that the US dollar will continue to fall amid uncertainty about Washington’s political and economic policies, Bloomberg has reported. The dollar suffered its worst single-day decline …
Credit traders are far less optimistic than stock analysts when it comes to Nvidia's figures. The price of hedging against an Oracle default (CDS price) has risen even further. pic.twitter.com/xuwPK4ixR7 — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) November 19, 2025 Commodities are getting slammed. Not a good sign. Happens only in recessionary fear pic.twitter.com/FA0YdNLGy8 — optionGeek (@StockShark16) November …
The market always breaks in sentiment before it breaks in price. This looked like the moment the confidence slipped. about timeburn it all down the way Palantir helps its clients do pic.twitter.com/eXXiK2OoXI — Alkindus (@a1kindus) November 5, 2025 https://twitter.com/TommyThornton/status/1986433742211055702 A bailout. They want a bailout. https://t.co/yjmrbU8Mse — Lee Hepner (@LeeHepner) November 6, 2025 Open AI …
Is it normal that everyone knows we are in a bubble? Seems that pretty much everyone knows we are in a bubble – retails, CEOs, Wallstreet, you name it. Sooooo it should mean everyone understands that at some point (sooner or later) it will pop, right? I don’t think people are really that stupid to …
$BNP crash wasn’t in my bingo card today, does anyone know what’s going on? Have they frozen again 2 funds investing in subprime by any chance? 😬 https://t.co/u1hN78T0zJ pic.twitter.com/Invn2dv6Zm — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) October 20, 2025 Shares in BNP Paribas fell to a six-month low on Monday after the French bank lost a case linked …
$VIX there will be news And VIX will see 28 Something nasty is coming 🩸$SPY $QQQ — 👁 (@Oculustrade) October 16, 2025 Premarket futures are up and trading green, but with the $VIX still above 20, this rally can’t be fully trusted. Our OptionEdge AI's Quant indicators have flipped to Neutral from Buy on $SPY, …
How do I get involved in insider trading? That’s where the money is at. Imagine being this guy… They bought $72,000 worth of $INTC 26.5 calls that expire next week This morning $NVDA announced partnership with $INTC pumping the stock 30% His position will open up worth almost $1,000,000 pic.twitter.com/fgd5E0AKDC — John Trades MBA (@JPATrades) …
The market is being driven by blind faith, not reality. Traders are gambling on every jobs report, flooding the system with bets that ignore the long-term risks. Whether jobs are strong or weak, debt keeps rising, and financial instability grows behind the scenes. Short-term rallies create an illusion of health while the underlying economy becomes …
The blockchain blinked. Then it bled. It began with a ghost. A whale dormant for 5 years rolled over and crushed the market. “A dormant whale woke up after 5 years and sold 24K BTC worth $2.7 billion. The single move crashed Bitcoin to $111K and erased $50 billion in market value” The Coin Republic. …
Businesses are eating 64% of tariffs right now. We know that. But according to Goldman, by October this will drop to only 8%, with consumers eating 67%. Nice one in @SamRo's note this morning. pic.twitter.com/vvWgG39mwS — Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 17, 2025 Even the goat is bearish 🐐 pic.twitter.com/lIqSb7eHwv — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August …
Weekly triple divergences on BTC will be hard to overcome… https://t.co/yzoeCMO7bq — KAZ (@ralphkaz) August 16, 2025 Betting on Saylor’s Ponzi sounds fun until reality checks in. You mean an ETF built solely to milk options premium from Saylor’s Ponzi while Vol is collapsing with full exposure to $MSTR downside isnt a profitable trading strategy? …
Hong Kong’s High Court has ruled that China South City Holdings must be liquidated, marking the largest Chinese property developer by assets to face winding-up since Evergrande’s collapse. “Developer China South City Holdings was ordered to liquidate by Hong Kong’s High Court, making it the biggest Chinese builder by assets to be wound up since …
I'm seeing 2 possible scenarios here… 1) Melt-up and fall 50%2) Skip the 'melt-up' part Luckily, we have this chart, so we'll know when we see how price reacts at the resistance line. Bullish until it's not… pic.twitter.com/pmyXEsXH6M — Northstar (@NorthstarCharts) July 22, 2025 Bloomberg US CONTAINER VOLUMES FALL TWO MONTHS RUNNING Private data shows …
Copper traders are racing against the clock to move inventory into the United States before August 1, when a 50% tariff on copper imports takes effect. President Trump confirmed the decision on July 9, citing national security concerns. The tariff applies across the board, with no exemptions announced for origin or product type. The U.S. …
Positioning for a market downturn in 2025 has become more tactical than ever especially after June’s macro fireworks and the July 11 CPI print looming ahead. Equities hover near record highs while the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to about 4.42 %. Some traders now split their risk between long duration bond ETFs and targeted inverse …
U.S. Dollar Index $DXY is about to form a Death Cross ☠️ on the weekly chart (50 week moving average crossing below the 200 week) 🚨 A huge upside reversal took place each of the last 2 times this happened (March 2018 and Jan 2021) 📈📈 pic.twitter.com/ALLwNxT70w — Barchart (@Barchart) July 2, 2025 What happens …
Flash warning for brutal unwind ahead. S&P call option volume has become completely unhinged. While the #speculation is currently working, which is drawing more investors into the scheme, this will eventually have very bad outcomes. pic.twitter.com/gsVGIEbUzD — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) June 25, 2025 $NVDA Just as we test ATHs, volume is quickly fizzling out, showcasing …
You can track the AI race here:https://t.co/scL5kacTBh — Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) June 23, 2025
I don't know if we'll ever get this type of correction, but this support line would represent a -90% peak-to-trough correction if it ever happens. pic.twitter.com/oGnwqwjCRZ — Curtis (@curtis90335) May 30, 2025 https://coastaljournal.substack.com/p/the-hunger-games-of-inflation?utm_source=app-post-stats-page&r=18thb9&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
June 1st marked the day President Trump’s 50 percent tariffs on European goods officially kicked in. Many retail traders expected the tariffs to be delayed or rolled back and kept buying stocks. That assumption misses the bigger picture. The European Union is in a strong position. With closer ties to China and a need to …