Retail traders are flooding into 3x semiconductor ETFs at record speed

Leveraged ETFs amplify daily moves so heavy volume usually signals aggressive short term speculation.

Fresh ATHs, earnings are great, AI is back, baby!

The honest read is darker

PCE accelerated 70bp in a single month
GDP missed
Oil hit a 4yr high

None of that is consistent with $SPX at ATH with VIX <17

Especially when April’s historic rally exhausted short-covering and systematic re-risking

The standard explanation is “earnings” and with 86% beats, it’s hard to dismiss

But every incremental leg higher here requires fresh bullish catalysts when the macro tape is sending hostile signals

A month ago, this rally had a structural buyer. Today it doesn’t

Short-term the asymmetry is now to the downside – not because anything has to break, but because the market is getting to the point where it will run out of marginal buyers