U.S. Dollar Index $DXY is about to form a Death Cross ☠️ on the weekly chart (50 week moving average crossing below the 200 week) 🚨 A huge upside reversal took place each of the last 2 times this happened (March 2018 and Jan 2021) 📈📈 pic.twitter.com/ALLwNxT70w
— Barchart (@Barchart) July 2, 2025
What happens when we're there?
— Chris (@hedcrusher) July 1, 2025
Retailers….. https://t.co/i79J9WsDRW pic.twitter.com/wKG3SxTQYx
— The Great Martis (@great_martis) July 2, 2025
Just a reminder for anyone sleeping on dollar strength right now.
We already saw this movie, and it wrecked tech last time.
From early 2021 through July 2022, the dollar went on a nonstop run.
The Fed was jacking up rates, inflation was flying, and everyone ran to safety.
DXY shot up past 109 and stayed strong for months.
The market cracked hard, and tech was the first to bleed.
S&P peaked in January 2022, but the pain started before that.
Big tech names got smoked.
High-growth names with no earnings got obliterated.
Here is what happened while the dollar surged:
-
ARKK dropped almost 70 percent.
-
QQQ lost over 30 percent from its high.
-
Meta, Netflix, Nvidia all had massive drawdowns.
-
Foreign earnings for big tech got crushed by FX headwinds.
-
Investors rotated out of growth into value and cash.
It was not just about rates.
A strong dollar tightens financial conditions across the board.
Makes debt more expensive, hurts exports, weakens earnings.
If you are loading up on risk while the dollar’s turning again, you might want to zoom out and remember what happened last time.
The stronger the dollar, the harder tech falls.
Especially the high flyers.