Wall Street’s most feared valuation signal just triggered for only the 3rd time in 154 years

THE RECKONING Wall Street’s oldest warning system just triggered. The Shiller PE ratio crossed 40.16 this week. In 154 years of recorded market history, this threshold has been breached only three times. The first was December 1999. The second was November 2021. The third is now. What followed the first: …

READ MORE

MSTR Is Living on Borrowed Time

via WSB: TL;DR: My take: MSTR doesn’t survive more than ~3 years in most realistic scenarios. BTC down → MSTR dies fast. BTC flat → MSTR bleeds out paying dividends + interest. BTC goes mainstream → ETFs kill the premium and dilution stops working. Different paths, same ending. Longer version …

READ MORE

2008 vibes are back, but this time the stakes are even higher. The 10 year 2 year spread is moving the way it did before past market breaks.

Was Friday the start of a bigger pullback for stocks?$VIX Term Structure fell below 0.79 on Thursday. Volatility was too low. This only happened 3 other times in the past 4 years. Each case was followed by at least a -10% correction for $SPX pic.twitter.com/vDxvJRwZLY — Subu Trade (@SubuTrade) December …

READ MORE

AI infrastructure debt unwind is hitting markets in real time

$MSFT news last week now this, what is SEC doing? https://t.co/ieuyGXnoC3 — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) December 12, 2025 Grok: Oracle stock fell after Bloomberg reported delays in some OpenAI data centers to 2028 due to labor/material shortages. Oracle denied it, stating no delays to contractual sites and all milestones on track. …

READ MORE

Jennifer Welch: “l just think it’s really important to remind everybody all the time that Elon Musk is a fucking immigrant that doesn’t pay taxes who is a parasite off the American taxpayer”

Jennifer Welch: “l just think it’s really important to remind everybody all the time that Elon Musk is a fucking immigrant that doesn’t pay taxes who is a parasite off the American taxpayer” pic.twitter.com/BNhirAph69 — Marco Foster (@MarcoFoster_) December 9, 2025 Grok factcheck: Elon Musk is a naturalized US citizen …

READ MORE

He arrested for attempted murder in Charlotte. Deported twice, entered third time under Biden.

Oscar Gerardo Solorzano-Garcia, an illegal alien from Honduras, is being charged with attempted first-degree murder after he stabbed a victim with a large knife on a train in Charlotte, North Carolina. ICE lodged a detainer to ensure this criminal illegal is not released back… https://t.co/ahgaPSQHYj — Tricia McLaughlin (@TriciaOhio) December …

READ MORE

US leading economic indicators hit lowest ratio since 2008, 4-year decline signals recession. Is this time different?

US leading economic indicators are still deteriorating: The ratio of US leading to coincident economic indicators is down to 0.85, the lowest level since 2008. This ratio has now declined for 4 consecutive years. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) tracks forward-looking data, including consumer expectations, manufacturing orders, weekly …

READ MORE

Maybe this time is different? Personally I doubt it…

wow! almost as low as 2009 and 1982 — Hilliard MacBeth (@hmacbe) December 4, 2025 Russell +15% ytd Profitable Russell: +9.7%Unprofitable Russell: +45% That’s the tweet.☠️ — Mr. VIX (@yieldsearcher) December 4, 2025 $SPX If you’re bearish, this is your ammo: the market continues to make lower highs, and we’ve …

READ MORE

Bessent blasts NY Times for ignoring “the greatest scandal of all time” as Biden goes 10 months without a cabinet meeting. Massive fraud under Gov. Walz gets no coverage from ABC, CBS, or NBC.

Scott Bessent DROPS THE HAMMER on the NY Times: “You just had what could be the greatest scandal of all time, the cover-up of Joe Biden’s diminished capacity. We just had a 3 hour cabinet meeting. For 10 months Biden did not have a cabinet meeting. Where was the NYT?” …

READ MORE

Markets are hitting all time highs even as the recession begins. Burry is betting hard on a crash. First come the layoffs, then the defaults. The Fed won’t cut interest rates too much this time.

Playing out, sadly: RECESSION INTO ALL TIME HIGHS #Employment ADP commentary from Chief Economist Richardson: “Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. And while November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.” Playing out, sadly: RECESSION …

READ MORE

Strategy’s corporate Bitcoin experiment unravels in real time with NAV inversion, emergency cash reserves, and billions at risk

THE IMPOSSIBLE JUST HAPPENED The world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder is now worth less than its Bitcoin. Stop and read that again. Strategy holds 650,000 Bitcoin. Worth $55.9 billion today. Its market cap: $45.7 billion. Wall Street is valuing the company at negative $10.2 billion. This is not a drill. …

READ MORE

CNN reports national gas average hits $3 a gallon for first time in years, 20 states remain under $2.75

CNN: "For the first time in 4.5 years, gas prices are averaging $3/gallon nationally." "We've got TWENTY states across the country where the average is actually less than $2.75/gallon." 🔥 pic.twitter.com/MzOvbMUfiG — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) December 1, 2025 Drivers are getting some relief at the pump, with the average …

READ MORE

Japanese 2 year note yields top 1% for the first time since 2008. Cramer hints at hidden stress inside hedge funds tied to Japan carry risks and crypto heat

JAPAN’S 2-YEAR YIELD HITS 1% FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2008, AND THE YEN CARRY TRADE JUST CRUMBLED OVERNIGHT. Stocks and Bitcoin mass liquidations return. pic.twitter.com/Uf3vxIsoRy — Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) December 1, 2025 Japan’s bond market sent a clear signal this week. The country’s two-year government bond yield touched 1%. …

READ MORE

“I will keep stocks at all time highs” – Trump…. $VIX down -44% in 5 days. Be fearful when others are greedy… SOFR trades keep breaking the fed ceiling

$VIX down -44% in 5 days.Be fearful when others are greedy. — kpak (@kpak82) November 28, 2025 25% of the ~$3.2 trillion ($800bln) being financed via SOFR has been borrowed above the Fed’s upper bound …for almost three weeks now https://t.co/UisS8uif0j pic.twitter.com/nK5ZyNx9SI — Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) (@infraa_) November 28, 2025 …

READ MORE

Russia unable to send astronauts into Space for first time in 60 years. Launchpad is destroyed, here’s video.

Russia’s Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan was damaged on Thursday following the launch of a manned Soyuz rocket to the International Space Station, the Roscosmos space agency said. Read more: https://t.co/KxtBqiRaSa pic.twitter.com/P6E05SMoNF — The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) November 28, 2025 Damage to a Russian launch site has stopped Moscow from sending …

READ MORE

Time to mail the keys back to the bank and walk away.

Time to mail the keys back to the bank and walk away. https://t.co/aaesJz7sCR — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) November 26, 2025 Subprime mortgages are on the rise again – Newsweek Subprime mortgages, in both originations and balances held by less creditworthy borrowers, are on the rise in 2025, reflecting to a …

READ MORE

It is Time to Replace Judiciary with AI

by Martin Armstrong The American judiciary should just be shut down. It all depends on the political affiliation of the presiding judge. First of all, it is virtually IMPOSSIBLE to get the grand jury minutes. That is so unprecedented it is one in a billion shot. The judge who dismissed …

READ MORE

Ethiopia Volcano erupts for the first time – Described by locals as the Gateway to Hell

This appear to be a notable development: 🌋 ERUPTION ALERT — Erta Ale (Hayli Gubbi), EthiopiaThe Biggest Lava Lake on Earth Just Roared Back to LifeImages & Articles: https://t.co/00hpNCh9Zx SpaceTracker Journal — 23 November 2025 Last night in the Afar Depression, the Erta Ale shield volcano—known locally as Hayli… pic.twitter.com/Nb35ruTml4 …

READ MORE

Anyone got any ideas other than ZIRP & money printing this time?

Anyone got any ideas other than ZIRP & money printing this time? https://t.co/AWDxCc8ZHO — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) November 22, 2025 US wage growth is falling: Wages tracked by Indeed increased just +2.5% YoY in October, the lowest growth rate since July 2020. Excluding the 2020 pandemic, this is the weakest …

READ MORE

Vance admits the economy sucks and “it’s going to take a bit of time” for Americans to feel the economic boom. Consumer sentiment COLLAPSES to the LOWEST since 2009.

.@VP: "This economy was not harmed in 10 months. It took a deliberate 4-year administration that was making life harder for everyday Americans, that was importing foreign workers… over regulating, overtaxing… As much progress as we've made, it's going to take a little bit of… pic.twitter.com/ycgvkBPftW — Rapid Response 47 …

READ MORE

One of the biggest economic crashes is occurring in real time with the infection started in cryptocurrency and spreading to stocks. Tom Lee’s Bitmine is sitting on $3.5 BILLION in unrealized losses on $ETH.

Crypto is primarily a speculative risk asset. Do not conflate the two together. This isn’t a crash, investors are taking profit so therefore it is an overdue correction. — J-Red aboi da kid (@Unpopularrtruth) November 20, 2025 JUST IN: Tom Lee’s Bitmine is sitting on $3.5 BILLION in unrealized losses …

READ MORE

Global money supply explodes by $10T despite shrinking balance sheets. Global M2 hit an all time high of $95 trillion 10 days ago. Worst macro mix hits as Fed admits double danger

Crazy to think that money supply is expanding this aggressively even as global central bank balance sheets have been contracting. We’ve seen a $10T increase in global money supply in just the past 12 months. Now imagine what happens once central banks inevitably need to expand their balance sheets again …

READ MORE