Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Walmart started cutting around 1,000 positions mostly in corporate and supply chain roles this week. Company pointed to efficiency gains and shifting consumer habits as main drivers. Cuts spread across a few distribution centers and headquarters teams without big store impacts. Retail giant still plans steady hiring in other areas like e-commerce and pharmacy. Move …
Big tech has used voluntary retirement and buyout programs during prior efficiency cycles and post boom adjustments. Translation: ‘You’re not fired, you’re ‘involuntarily retired’ with a nice package.’ AI doesn’t need pensions. Smart cost-cutting before earnings. Microsoft plans first-ever voluntary employee buyout for up to 7% of U.S. workforce Microsoft will offer voluntary buyouts to …
China’s industrial system depends heavily on fuel it does not control. Its factories, ports, shipyards, and military production all rely on imported oil and LNG to keep operating. That dependence means any disruption in supply routes or supplier stability is felt quickly inside the system, often before there is time to adjust. A significant portion …
You can print debt forever, but you cannot print silver $318 Trillion in Debt Could Break the Silver Market There’s one number Wall Street doesn’t want you thinking about: $318 trillion. That’s how much global debt exists right now, and my cousin Asian Guy breaks down why this debt spiral could collide with a silver …
This is how trouble sneaks in, quietly and all at once. When every major bond market starts pushing yields higher together, it means money is getting expensive everywhere, not just somewhere. Stocks can ignore that for a while, but balance sheets cannot. By the time equities notice, the damage is already baked in. A HUGE …
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is nearing a point where it will stop reducing the size of its bond holdings, but gave no long-run indication of where interest rates are heading. Though balance sheet questions are in the weeds for monetary policy, they matter to financial markets. Powell generally stuck to …
What’s happening now fits squarely within my thesis that Powell is using monetary policy not just to manage inflation, but as a geopolitical weapon of delay, designed to trap adversaries and force the world to bend to U.S. dollar hegemony. The recent stalling of a September rate cut isn’t just about economic data; it’s about …
Inflation fears return money flood reignites pressure… 📈 U.S. M2 Money Supply Hits Record $21.9 Trillion in May 2025 The U.S. M2 money supply—comprising cash, checking deposits, and other liquid assets—rose to a record $21.94 trillion (seasonally adjusted) in May 2025, up 4.5% year-over-year. Although below the long-term average… pic.twitter.com/Qb7iuJnj11 — Econovis (@econovisuals) June 30, …
A net 19% of banks tightened lending standards for large and medium-sized firms in Q1 2025, the highest share since Q3 2023. At the same time, a net 16% of banks tightened lending standards for small businesses, the highest share since Q1 2024. Furthermore, the number of banks reporting weaker demand for large firms’ loans …
The latest data show that Americans are taking an increasingly grim view of the U.S. economy and their own financial outlooks as uncertainty from the Trump administration’s tariff hikes and other policy changes drags on. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell for the fourth consecutive month, dropping 7.2 points to a reading of 92.9 …
Reverse repo surges $72BN to $268.7BN for year-end window dressing. Funding market spreads already had blown out to 3 month highs amid spike in repo tightness pic.twitter.com/wyBoMBEPN8 — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 27, 2024 The Federal Reserve's emergency Bank Term Funding Program dropped to $5 billion this week. It'll be $0 in January. pic.twitter.com/md8wCxDkVv — Financelot …
“US consumers’ outlook on their longer-term financial situation has deteriorated to the worst level in over a decade.” #recession … #GFC2 US #Consumer edition Just a "vibecession", right? 🙃 https://t.co/JkqRlanAj8 — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) October 14, 2024 Flows turned negative for HY BofA pic.twitter.com/7sVRTRIzyx — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 14, 2024 JUST IN: OPEC …
Last night BOJ governor Ueda reiterated that the BOJ is going to continue tightening. That's when S&P futures tanked and commodities imploded.https://t.co/Y7gNh1xJH6 pic.twitter.com/YxZFnhbOW0 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) September 3, 2024 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda submitted a document to a government panel suggesting that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if the …
For the first time since February 2021, inflation-adjusted grocery spending has increased, signaling a positive growth trend after nearly three years of decline. This means that despite inflation, people are now spending more on groceries in real terms. GROCERY SHOPPING 🍞🥩🥦 Inflation-adjusted grocery spending was positive for the first time since February 2021 after nearly …
Been saying this for several months now. The Fed didn't finish the job. They got spooked in late October (along with Treasury) about the rise in yields and term premiums and thus orchestrated a significant loosening of financial conditions to help the US govt finance its… https://t.co/5lMScZGtDD — Craig Shapiro (@ces921) March 13, 2024 The …
BY DAVID HAGGITH Photo by Charlotte Harrison on Unsplash Today’s news is so flooded with stories that show the trends I’ve teen warning about that I can’t even begin to cover them all in the time I have to read through the news, organize it and then write an editorial. So, I’m going to go through them in …
Is this like saying a a 'stopped clock' is accurate twice a day? So halting QT will fulfil their 'normalisation' narrative @RobinWigg #Fed has painted itself into a corner and will need to do something when RRP finally empties. pic.twitter.com/ZpwtUYVjgY — CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes (@crossbordercap) January 9, 2024
🇺🇸 Small banks cash assets to total assets shrinks. The Fed’s BTFP comes due in March. It’ll be extended. The Fed postpones at the expense of making worse, the consequences of liquidating underwater securities to meet depositor’s demand for their money. Chart: @RealEJAntoni pic.twitter.com/vGFwfMATXd — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) December 24, 2023 the REAL Truth …
The prospect of the Fed concluding its tightening raises questions about an imminent stock market boom, yet historical trends offer no definitive answers. Analyzing the S&P 500’s performance after past Fed peaks reveals a mixed picture, with the market experiencing both falls and rallies. The outcome hinges on the potential occurrence of a recession and …
by ChampionshipUsed9855 Gold is currently trading at $1,999.90 per ounce, up 0.72% from yesterday’s close of $1,983.18 per ounce. Gold prices are up 28.4% since December 2007 and have outperformed the 3-month Treasury yield by a wide margin over that time period.
by confoundedinterest17 Back in red? As US fiscal policy deteriorates further thanks to endless Federal spending (not to mention seemingly endless wars under Biden and Nobel Peace Prize winner Obama), we are seeing pain in the bank lending business. Commercial and industrial (C&I) loan lending standards is tightening (blue line) to levels typically seen in recessions. …
The Euro Area’s economic woes deepen as it faces its lowest PMI levels in nearly three years, raising concerns of a looming recession. Euro zone banks are tightening credit standards due to worsening economic conditions and rising interest rates, resulting in significant credit tightening. #Eurozone #PMI 📉 👀https://t.co/kbzBfUfarU pic.twitter.com/2jLAhRwIZa — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) October 24, …
https://t.co/EKBk7kf8IP — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 6, 2023
The significant decline in the market value of Treasury notes, bonds, and mortgage-backed securities, which make up over 80% of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, could potentially reduce the Fed’s assets by about $1 trillion, surpassing the impact of their QT policy. This would essentially bring their balance sheet back to 2020 levels, indicating the …
Banks are tightening lending standards consistent with levels that have ALWAYS led to a recession Buckle up pic.twitter.com/OjXqe4OpZN — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 4, 2023 https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1698498854453227530 The current yield curve inversion is at the same level as 1928. Let that sink in. pic.twitter.com/zEEaqCMETP — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 4, 2023
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.fitchratings.com/research/banks/further-cut-to-us-bank-oper-environment-score-would-require-structural-change-17-08-2023 Fitch Ratings-New York-17 August 2023: Fitch Ratings lowered the operating environment (OE) score for U.S. banks in June to ‘aa-‘ from ‘aa’ mainly due to structural uncertainty around the path and rate of monetary tightening and gaps in in the regulatory framework. The lowering of the OE score did not negatively affect the ratings …
The crash of 1987 was caused by a market melt-up during Fed tightening. The same thing happening now. No happy dance for FOMC:https://t.co/DDht7jDjCn"Markets have consistently front-run the Fed. That has eased credit conditions and could stoke an acceleration in growth." pic.twitter.com/vEhOMu1ozt — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 26, 2023 Last week saw the highest QQQ call option …
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve, an organization that even George Orwell would find outrageous, is a Minsky Moment Machine! A Minsky Moment refers to the onset of a market collapse brought on by the reckless speculative activity that defines an unsustainable bullish period. Minsky Moment crises generally occur because investors, engaging in excessively aggressive speculation, take …
Glad to hear that inflation is cooling (now in semi-log!) pic.twitter.com/tweuJFCzop — Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator. (@RudyHavenstein) July 14, 2023
