DAVID HAGGITH: Fed talks “catastrophe.” JPMorgan talks “second wave” of banking collapses. History says the Fed NEVER makes it past the present depth of tightening — not ever!

via thedailydoom: San Francisco skyline | Photo by Patrick Perkins on Unsplash In the past, I’ve called this event the “Epocalypse” because it will be epic in scale and will eventually be seen as a new epoch in humanity’s economic history that will be apocalyptic in its level of economic destruction. That became the only thing Forbes ever quoted me on when I warned it was …

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The share of nonfinancial firms in financial distress has reached a level that is higher than during most previous tightening episodes since the 1970s

by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/distressed-firms-and-the-large-effects-of-monetary-policy-tightenings-20230623.html TLDRS: Since March 2022, U.S. monetary policy has become tighter. More businesses are financially distressed now than in previous instances of tightening since the ’70s. Studies suggest that these conditions could lead to significant declines in investment and jobs in the near future. The theory is that when monetary policy gets tougher, …

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Survey shows hedge funds tightening nonprice terms due to liquidity issues.

by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/files/scoos_202306.pdf Summary The June 2023 Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Dealer Financing Terms (SCOOS) collected qualitative information on changes in credit terms and conditions in securities financing and over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives. In addition to the core questions, the survey included a set of special questions about the funding of clients engaged in …

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Hedge funds are betting against short-dated Treasuries as the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle is far from over… World Bank: Global economic growth expected to slow to 2008 levels

Hedge funds are continuing to bet against short-dated Treasuries, extending their record selling streak as wagers mount that the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle is far from over.  https://t.co/98PnJfM6c7 pic.twitter.com/fFQVUQb7Hp — Mo Hossain (@MoHossain) June 12, 2023 🚩 Deutsche Bank expects an imminent default wave, with a peak in the fourth quarter of 2024. It forecasts …

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Deutsche Bank: Massive debt defaults by companies are imminent due to fastest monetary tightening in 15 years.

From commercial loans to the corporate bond market. Things look fragile. The "experts" tell us it's nothing like 2009 yet they said we had nothing to worry about back then either. I think things are going to get messy. — Jason Stapleton ☕️ ✍🏼 🎙️ (@Jason_Stapleton) June 2, 2023 Default wave imminent, will peak in 2024, Deutsche Bank says …

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Fed likely to pause tightening despite being half way home

by confoundedinterest17 Don’t kid yourself. The talking heads at The Federal Reserve (more like Feral Reserve) are only about halfway there in terms of rate hikes. There is still over $8 trillion in monetary stimulus sloshing around the economy. The Taylor Rule implies a target rate of 10.12% while the current target rate is just over half that rate at 5.25%. A little over halfway there and The Fed is likely to pause rate hikes. Of …

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