Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Trump ended America’s free ride on Europe’s defense bills. Now, $578 million in new U.S. weapons for Ukraine aren’t coming out of American pockets, they’re being paid for by Europe, led by the Netherlands. “The Netherlands has committed €500 million, or roughly $578 million, to purchase U.S.-made weapons and send them to Ukraine, marking a …
It’s really interesting how AI will make those companies using it more profitable by shedding jobs- yet there is zero mention of the proposition that there will be less demand to buy their products if people don’t have a job — Jehovah (@renegade_56) August 4, 2025 Eye-opening chart, S&P 490 has had no earnings growth …
Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position is now 30% of their total assets, the most in history 🚨 Probably Fine? pic.twitter.com/ILr70bCct7 — Barchart (@Barchart) August 3, 2025 Berkshire Hathaway’s cash is now 30% of its total assets, the highest in its history. The company holds $344 billion in cash because it sees few good places to invest. …
Chuck Schumer criticized Trump’s August 1 tariff order but did not offer any policy alternative. “All Talk, No Substance”: Schumer torches Trump’s tariffs as August 1 deadline hits https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/30/trump-tariff-deadline-august-1-00483122 He called the new duties “an experiment in chaos, dishonesty and inflation” https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jul/31/donald-trump-tariffs-trade-canada-palestine-us-politics-live-news-updates Trump’s order levies 40% tariffs on transshipped goods and 10% on goods from …
U.S. economy flashes warning signs with crashing orders, falling home prices and health care costs outpacing rent. Capex expectations continued to deteriorate in July per @KansasCityFed Manufacturing Index pic.twitter.com/LlqnUOHx8t — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 25, 2025 Durable goods orders –9.3% in June, after –6.6% in April — the worst monthly drop since 2020. The …
On July 22, Trump attacked Rep. Thomas Massie on Truth Social, calling him “the worst Republican Congressman” and “an embarrassment to Kentucky.” That was no stray insult. Trump is recruiting a primary challenger and says he plans to campaign in Kentucky to remove Massie from office. The breaking point was Epstein, not just policy. Massie …
In this conversation, Joe and James discuss the implications of the Genius Act, which aims to regulate stablecoins and their potential impact on the banking system and national debt. James argues that while crypto can disrupt the inefficient banking system, the Genius Act may not solve all financial problems. They explore the future of stablecoins, …
Despite the worst start ever to a fiscal year, several key metrics have really turned around w/ Jun tax receipts up 12.9% and outlays down 7.0%, resulting in a surplus; last month was the first time this fiscal year that federal gov’t spending was below $500B: N.B.: Those are year-over-year increases — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. …
Markets flash crisis signs… Current situation: 1. Bitcoin is up +60% in 3 months like the USD is broken 2. The USD is falling in its worst start to a year since 1973 3. Gold prices are rising toward $3,400/oz like inflation is back 4. Treasury yields are rising like deficit spending is worsening 5.… …
Initial sales data from Amazon Prime Day is flashing a warning light. Early spending figures show a decline between 10% and 15% compared to last year’s event. This comes despite an expanded promotional window and aggressive markdowns across nearly every product category. Adobe’s projected $23.8 billion sales forecast now looks optimistic. What was meant to …
I don’t believe for a second that Elon would be publicly challenging Trump on spending, damaging his own companies and turning the MAGA base against himself all because of EV credits. It’s obvious he understands math and strongly believes that the spending levels will destroy us I respect it a ton. A willingness to self-sacrifice …
The cost of living in the US is rising every year while the government calls for the Fed to cut rates and spend $5 trillion more dollars. Americans face inflation that eats into their paychecks. Families spend nearly $950 more every month to keep up. Food prices climbed 72% since 2020. Auto insurance is 41% …
The $37 trillion debt is a symptom of D.C.’s addiction to reckless spending. Since 2019, federal outlays surged 51.7% to $6.7 trillion annually, while interest payments alone hit $1.71 trillion—enough to fund NASA for 68 years. The Cost Estimates Improvement Act (H.R. 991) tries… — Watch DOGE (@dogeai_gov) July 1, 2025 "To preserve our independence, …
via Mike Shedlock Construction spending has been in a huge downtrend for a year. Construction spending data from census department, chart by Mish The Census Department Construction Spending Report for May repeats the same story, down again. Total Construction Construction spending during May 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,138.2 billion, 0.3 percent …
by confoundedinterest17 Finally, US government debt growth (YoY) was approximately equal to US nominal GDP growth in Q1 2025. Unfortunately, the BBB (Big Beautiful Bill) is projected to add $3.9 trillion of debt. Unfortunately, there are insufficient spending cuts in the BBB. And the Senate just nixed kicking illegal imm*grants off of Federal healthcare programs. Unfortunately, GDP …
BREAKING – Democrats are planning a nationwide protest called “The People’s Sick Day,” where they plan to skip work and stop spending for three days to prove how “essential” they are. pic.twitter.com/ueqDI0bNL2 — Right Angle News Network (@Rightanglenews) July 1, 2025
Speaker Mike Johnson is also privately telling GOP fiscal hawks that he’s pushing Senate Majority Leader John Thune to add back in hundreds of billions of dollars in spending cuts the Senate dropped, according to two people with direct knowledge of the conversations. But fiscal hawks have been skeptical the Senate will comply. https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/29/congress/house-gop-leaders-watch-senate-anxiously-as-they-work-to-secure-votes-00432288 Republican …
The $6.7 billion Legislative Branch bill is set for a full-committee markup Thursday. House appropriators released their committee report Wednesday for the Legislative Branch funding bill, which includes detailed guidance on how they’d like Capitol Hill offices and agencies to spend fiscal 2026 funding. Here’s a sampling of what’s on their minds ahead of …
Dose of reality: Congress is spending, printing, and borrowing so much that the Fed has lost its ability to “set rates.” Banks and foreign governments who buy our 10 year U.S. treasuries are demanding more than 4.5% return. BBB makes it worse. Would be a great time to #EndTheFed pic.twitter.com/5G8ZUIsn6d — Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) June …
NATO allies will meet in The Hague next week and are expected to agree to significantly boost military expenditure, but Madrid is reluctant. Spain wants a carve-out from NATO’s likely future defense spending goal of 5 percent of GDP, the country’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said ahead of next week’s high-stakes alliance summit in The …
Corporate America is shedding labor under the banner of automation. Artificial intelligence is no longer a future forecast. It is a current expense reduction strategy. Major companies are laying off thousands, citing AI integration and operational streamlining as justification. The shift is sharp. The fallout is measurable. Who the fuck do they think is going …
Argentina's economy is on fire, turning in 8% growth — one of the fastest in the world. That's five times the growth before Javier Milei slashed government spending by a third. Amazing things happen when you actually cut government spending.@JMilei pic.twitter.com/iytxkI3XNh — Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) June 10, 2025 Staggering numbers. Higher than WW2. …
by Michael If the protests in Los Angeles are supposed to be peaceful, why is brand new riot gear being trucked in and given to the protesters? And why isn’t this making front page news all over the country? First of all, protesters only need riot gear if riots are going to break out. Secondly, …
Consumers are out of savings. APRIL 2025: – Consumer credit hit $17.9B (Fed expected $11.4B)– Credit card debt increased 7%– Total balances hit a record $5.01T (yes, with a T, y’all) Ummm… hello? This is crisis management at 25% APR. – 35% used credit for impulse buys-… — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) June 8, 2025 Auto …
Trump vs. Elon Elon is visibly frustrated—used publicly as a symbol to promote DOGE, while behind the scenes, Trump pushes a $4 trillion deficit through a so-called tax bill that completely undermines DOGE’s mission. Trump’s inner circle has never been particularly fond of Elon. But Elon is one of the few people who can’t resist …
ROME DIDN’T FALL – IT BLED OUT IN GOLD, TAXES & DEBT (AND WE’RE NOT IMMUNE) The Roman Empire, once a beacon of power and prosperity, crumbled under the weight of internal mismanagement, with reckless spending and currency devaluation playing pivotal roles in its decline. Rome’s vast empire required an immense military to defend its …
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, What’s required is not just a revised spreadsheet but an entirely new culture and value system. I’ve been referencing The Ratchet Effect since 2010 as it explains why shrinking bloat is so much harder than expanding bloat. A common example is household income and spending. When the couple were just starting out, …
SPEAKER JOHNSON: “I’M CALLING ELON RIGHT NOW” Elon says Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill bloats spending and betrays everything he stands for. Republicans now have a real problem. Support for Elon is strong, proving he has a point. The bill isn’t wanted. Now Johnson’s dialing Elon like a desperate ex, hoping to change his mind. Source: …
