Initial sales data from Amazon Prime Day is flashing a warning light. Early spending figures show a decline between 10% and 15% compared to last year’s event. This comes despite an expanded promotional window and aggressive markdowns across nearly every product category. Adobe’s projected $23.8 billion sales forecast now looks optimistic. What was meant to reignite consumer momentum may be confirming just how weak household demand has become.
Under the surface, sentiment remains dismal. The University of Michigan index still hovers nearly 20% below late 2024 levels. The Expectations Index touched 69 in June. Anything below 80 has historically marked recession territory. Consumer Confidence dipped to 93. That reading doesn’t suggest recovery—it reinforces the signal. Across categories, discretionary spending has been curbed. Nearly six out of ten Americans say they’re cutting back. Another third is delaying large purchases altogether.
Still, the market climbs. The S&P 500 is up 5% since mid-June and tech has led the charge. Amazon itself rallied 31% over the past quarter while its founder, Jeff Bezos, sold just under 3 million shares totaling $665.9 million. These sales were part of a scheduled divestment plan that allows him to offload up to 25 million shares by May 2026. He remains the dominant shareholder with more than 900 million shares intact.
Oh what an amazing deal, @Amazon! I love Prime Day! 😂 pic.twitter.com/JxTCaNraSW
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) July 8, 2025
🚨Just in: Jeff Bezos has sold Amazon shares worth up to $665.9 Million
What do you think this move means? pic.twitter.com/NeXT0eiAF9
— The Calvin Coolidge Project (@TheCalvinCooli1) July 8, 2025
https://twitter.com/SpayneRob/status/1942709805157597205
Perhaps one of the cleanest indicators of the health of the US consumer https://t.co/XbohmiNHZA
— Adam Taggart (@adamtaggart) July 8, 2025
BREAKING: The odds of the US entering a recession in 2025 fall to 19%, the lowest level since January 2025, per @Kalshi. pic.twitter.com/FcetOtRZl9
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 8, 2025
This disconnect has drawn renewed attention to the Fed’s rate strategy. Trump, speaking to supporters, said Powell “will wait until unemployment spikes” before cutting rates. And he’s not wrong. The Fed still treats job data as a leading indicator. But consumer spending speaks louder right now. It’s a coincident signal. And it’s shrinking.
Historically, moments of deep pessimism have often preceded powerful equity runs. The sentiment collapse we’re seeing could be that fuel. But this isn’t confirmation. Market strength doesn’t erase household stress. The divergence between Wall Street optimism and Main Street restraint remains unresolved.
Sources
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/08/jeff-bezos-amazon-stock-sale.html
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/consumer-confidence-index-tariffs-recession-june-2025