Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
At first glance, it looks contradictory. Rent growth slows, but rent still feels unaffordable. The reason is simple. Growth and level are not the same thing. Recent data shows that rents have softened in many markets. In 2025, asking rents declined year over year in 74 out of 150 крупных metro areas tracked by RealPage. …
by Martin Armstrong The latest GDP numbers show that the U.S. economy slowed far more than expected as we closed out 2025. According to the revised data, Q4 GDP expanded at just a 0.7% annualized pace, sharply lower than the original 1.4% estimate and dramatically below the 4.4% growth seen in the third quarter. This sudden deceleration …
via confoundedinterest17 Keep on printing money. It seems that home price growth requires The Fed to keep printing money. S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November (“November” is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices). September closing prices include some contracts signed in July, so there is a significant lag to this data. …
The system is quietly trapping everyone while pretending nothing’s wrong. According to the BLM's most recent numbers, private employers are reporting 13,500 job cuts a WEEK. These are PRIVATE EMPLOYERS. NOT GOVERNMENT JOBS. The BLM reports we are seeing the worst job numbers since 2008. If you can HONESTLY justify that, you're a lot of …
via notayesmanseconomics This morning has brought some better news for the UK on the inflation front. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.6% in the 12 months to October 2025, down from 3.8% in September. So an improvement although a nuanced one if one moves onto the monthly figure. On a monthly basis, CPI …
Economic momentum is slowing, yet officials keep pushing optimistic headlines. Ignoring these signals will hurt sooner or later, and ordinary people will feel the pinch first. Real estate makes up around 70% of gross household wealth in China 🇨🇳 Every 5% decline in home prices will wipe out 19 trillion yuan (~$2.7 trillion) in housing …
Snowflake debuted at roughly 100× revenue valuation at its IPO, even though it was doubling revenue annually. Palantir meanwhile is clocking in at around 30% annual growth—a sharp disparity. Investors are now questioning how PLTR earned wildly higher multiples given slower expansion. https://www.businessinsider.com/palantir-q2-earnings-preview-pltr-stock-price-outlook-ai-forecast-2025-8 Palantir’s Q2 revenue surged 48% to $1 billion, boosted by U.S. government contracts …
Retail is cooling. Not collapsing. But the heat is gone. The latest Redbook Index shows year-over-year growth of 5.2% for the week ending July 19. That’s down from 5.9% the week prior. The sample covers 9,000 stores and represents 80% of the Commerce Department’s retail data. It’s nominal. Not inflation-adjusted. So the real story is …
This so-called “low” inflation number is a total joke. While they brag about 2.4%, Americans are getting slammed with reckless hikes in gas, insurance, food, rent, and healthcare. The basics keep getting more expensive every damn day, and no one’s doing enough to fix it. Enough is enough. While May CPI inflation was 2.4%, inflation …
The European Union aims to push trade talks past Trump’s July 9 deadline, knowing that a full agreement is unlikely within the timeframe. Officials are working to slow negotiations rather than rushing to meet Washington’s demands. The process is already bogged down by layers of bureaucracy, making any quick resolution nearly impossible. EU trade deals …
Is higher unemployment coming to the US? US consumers' perception of the labor market has weakened to the second-lowest level since 2021. The difference between the share of Americans saying that jobs are plentiful minus those saying they are hard to get fell to 13.2%, marking… pic.twitter.com/gv045S3LhL — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 28, 2025 …
🚨BREAKING: 🇨🇦 Big Six banks are hoarding loan-loss reserves and watching lending grind to a halt under the chokehold of Trump’s trade war. pic.twitter.com/bD2RsiVgeA — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) May 21, 2025 Canada’s Big Six banks are tightening their grip on loan-loss reserves, bracing for economic uncertainty as Trump’s trade policies send shockwaves through financial markets. The …
Piper Sandler Analyzes Sensitivity of $NVDA Data Center Revenues to Capex Slowdown Analyst comments: “We performed a sensitivity analysis on NVIDIA’s data center revenues to assess potential impacts from a slowdown in capital expenditures over the next year. In our worst-case scenario—assuming capex cuts across all NVDA data center end markets and no recovery in …
And now, it is showing up in the hard data. Credit card transactions began falling in a highly unseasonal manner in the last week of April. Spending slows down, layoffs speed up. It’s just that simple. pic.twitter.com/I7zBVDie5u — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) May 5, 2025 Bonds are setting up the ultimate catch-up trade. All the hard …
by confoundedinterest17 US home prices are slowing as Jerome Powell and The Fed slow down M2 Money printing. Notice the lag effect between M2 Money growth (green dashed line) and the Case-Shiller National home price index (solid blue line). Both have slowed. Should The Fed keep on printing money? We don’t need no stinkin’ Fed!
China’s $11 trillion government bond market has moved into uncharted territory. As their government rolls out widespread stimulus, yields are hitting record lows. The gap between yields in Japan and China are now at a record low of just ~70 basis points. China is in trouble. pic.twitter.com/j1vrmW6Hxe — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 28, 2024 …
🚨UNEMPLOYMENT IN CALIFORNIA IS SKYROCKETING🚨 The number of unemployed persons in California reached a whopping 1.05 MILLION, the highest in 3 years. Unemployment has jumped by 322,000 over the last 2 years. At the same time, the unemployment rate spiked to 5.3%. Recession? pic.twitter.com/gNpLH6z0ZH — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) December 26, 2024 Don't say you …
⚠️BRACE FOR MORE US JOB MARKET DATA REVISIONS⚠️ Nonfarm payrolls will likely be revised DOWNWARD by another ~300,000 jobs for 2Q 2024. This is according to the QCEW data released by the BLS. If this trend continues, it will turn out that August and October saw JOB LOSSES. pic.twitter.com/rA3cgv6En6 — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) December …
Robert Frick, an economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, mentioned that while employers may not be laying off many workers, they are indeed cutting back through other methods such as reducing hours and shifting workers to part-time as the economy slows. Labor costs have long been a significant issue for employers.They will continue to try …
Consumer Credit Card Debt Continues to Grow Consumer credit card debt in the US continues its upward trajectory, reaching a staggering $1.07 trillion as of August 14, 2024. This marks another milestone in the ongoing trend of rising consumer debt, though there are signs that… pic.twitter.com/Il5SBi52Zl — Reef Insights (@ReefInsights) August 27, 2024
https://t.co/EQKqdh6AzlPrice Drop! — Future Talk (@FutureTalk_X) July 31, 2024 Morgan Stanley: Only 3% chance GDP will decline in 2025. Trust the science! pic.twitter.com/oMupYTLCqa — Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) July 31, 2024 The real estate market is a significant part of the U.S. economy. In 2023, it contributed approximately 18% to the national GDP. This includes residential, commercial, and industrial …
Marketing costs expected to jump 15% this year, company says Full-year profit guidance climbs after sale of Accertify American Express Co. said it’s planning to increase spending on marketing even as billings growth on the company’s credit cards slowed in the second quarter. Shares of the payments giant fell the most in nine months after the …
by confoundedinterest17 Are you ready? You can tell an election is on the radar since inflation numbers are settling down for the most part. According to the BLS, overall inflation fell slightly in June to 3.0%. Shelter CPI is up 5.14% YoY as M2 Money growth has been rising slowly … again. Core CPI also ‘missed’, rising just …
The dreaded stagflation. Govt spending can’t cure it. The only fix is to purge the economy with fire and let bloated businesses go bust which no govt will allow to happen. So they’ll fight it with even more debt and only make the final result worse. h/t Perfect_Alarm_2141
Just as excess savings have been depleted pic.twitter.com/exP6JjsGHn — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) April 22, 2024
Dr. Dian Ginsberg on aging reduction by using young blood plasma 10:30 we have a nurse who is 70 years old who has wet macular degeneration who has gotten 91 shots in her eyes a shot every four weeks got three liters of plasma. Her opthalmologist has never seen anything like it 11:05 again here’s …
The latest report from the Federal Reserve reveals a slowdown in U.S. consumer-credit growth for October. Consumer credit expanded at a 1.2% annual rate, a significant drop from the 3% rate observed in September. October saw a total consumer credit increase of $5.2 billion, down from the prior month’s gain of $12.2 billion. Contrary to …
by confoundedinterest17 Biden’s leading “economist” Lael Brainard loves to brag about the strong economy under Bidenomics, and then pulled a brain freeze when asked about crashing savings rates as consumers struggle with inflation. The good news? One of The Fed’s favorite inflation indicators – Core PCE Deflator – slowed to 3.7% YoY in September (its lowest …
by confoundedinterest17 The US is experencing a slow down. The massive Federal government and Federal Reserve Covid stimulus has worn out and we are left with a sagging jobs report and soaring credit card delinquencies. After ADP’s reports printed almost perfectly in line with BLS last month (+177k vs +187k), all eyes are on today’s print, …
