$9.8 billion in AI revenue at risk if capex slows across data centers. Piper models worst-case hit to NVDA EPS at $0.40 stock could plunge to $76

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Piper Sandler Analyzes Sensitivity of $NVDA Data Center Revenues to Capex Slowdown

Analyst comments: “We performed a sensitivity analysis on NVIDIA’s data center revenues to assess potential impacts from a slowdown in capital expenditures over the next year. In our worst-case scenario—assuming capex cuts across all NVDA data center end markets and no recovery in China—we estimate that approximately 6.45% of total data center revenue, or about $9.8 billion annually, could be at risk. It’s important to note that our published estimates already exclude China revenues, as we de-risked our model following the 8-K filing on April 15. The potential $9.8 billion revenue impact equates to an estimated $0.40 hit to EPS. Under this worst-case scenario, using a 25x trough multiple, we estimate a stock price of $76.25. In the best case, applying the same 25x multiple, our stock price estimate is $126.75. We reiterate OW.”