Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Private payrolls grew by only 98k jobs in June according to ADP report. Economists had expected closer to 118k jobs. One retail giant cuts 15k staff to protect margins amid sluggish hiring. Planned layoffs dropped but overall job market stays weak. Unemployment rate holds steady at 4.3 percent for now. Job market is cooling faster …
Florida has cut spending for multiple years under DeSantis. The state budget is significantly smaller than New York’s despite similar populations. Rainy day fund has grown substantially. Florida has no state income tax and continues property tax relief efforts. Video confirms recent budget finalization. 🚨 JUST IN: Gov. Ron DeSantis confirmed that after he finalizes …
For years the tech world acted like whoever owned the most chips would dominate AI. China is now showing that smarter software and lower costs might matter just as much. By making AI models dramatically cheaper to run, they’re putting pressure on Silicon Valley’s massive hardware heavy approach and raising questions about whether all that …
SMALLEST CROP SINCE 1972… Wheat harvest hits 55-year low… 70% of crop in drought zone… USDA slashes production by 424M bushels… The breadbasket is empty… Winter wheat harvest is down 25%.Hard red winter wheat is down 36%. pic.twitter.com/H6Un6tYlYc — Truth (@1foreverseeking) May 13, 2026 The projection of a 55 year low in the national wheat …
More pain for the Bay Area tech sector as another company announces layoffs — this time a staggering 23% of the workforce. The San Mateo action-based camera maker GoPro will let nearly a quarter of its workforce around the world go by the second quarter of 2026, according to a filing with the Securities and …
China’s financial sector is entering another phase of pay compression, with senior bankers at state-backed institutions bracing for bonus cuts of at least 30% as regulators push forward with compensation reforms. Department heads at two major state-owned banks saw their 2025 bonuses reduced by 30% to 50%, while division chiefs at a mid-sized national lender …
'Out Of Africa': Beijing Slashes Investment Up To 85% https://t.co/RAINlwx80W — zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 24, 2026 Railways in Kenya, ports in Tanzania, energy projects across sub-Saharan Africa, and militarized infrastructure in various places have meant billions in state-backed loans. For decades, Beijing has positioned itself as Africa’s largest trading partner and its most aggressive infrastructure …
India Set to Slash Car Import Tariffs Under EU Deal, Rates Dropping from 110% to 40%** Limited to vehicles over €15,000 with gradual decrease to 10%. — Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) January 25, 2026 India plans to slash tariffs on cars imported from the European Union to 40% from as high as …
If BlackRock is taking hits now, who is next in private credit? Friday evening news drop Troubled Loans Hammer BlackRock’s Private Credit Fund “A BlackRock Inc. private debt fund expects to mark down the net value of its assets 19% after a string of troubled loans weighed on results, marking the latest sign of pressure …
DOGE IS QUIETLY DEFUNDING $3.5B IN WASTE, ONE RIDICULOUS CONTRACT AT A TIME DOGE dropped a silent nuke: 43 contracts terminated or descoped, ceiling value $3.5B, hard savings $222\\m, and the crown jewels are pure comedy gold: – $4.3M Treasury contract to “develop a comprehensive strategic narrative and management approach aimed at the Human Centered …
“Achieving these results required additional incentives, resulting in a reduced average sales price of $383,000, and our gross margin drifted down to 17.5%, while our SG&A expenses came in at 8.2%, reflecting the soft market conditions.” Source: https://newsroom.lennar.com/2025-09-18-Lennar-Reports-Third-Quarter-2025-Results “The average sales price for new homes dropped to $389,000, an 8.7% decline year-over-year, and a striking …
Walking just 2,300 daily steps (around 20 minutes) begins lowering major heart risks by 17%. Brisk walking (80+ steps per minute) cuts heart failure risk by 30% and strokes by 24%. Even people with high blood pressure see a 22% reduced heart failure risk per 1,000 extra steps. Consistency matters more than hitting 10,000 steps; …
Ukraine just lost €1.5 billion in EU aid. Not because of war. Not because of budget shortfalls. Because its government tried to gut the independence of its anti-corruption agencies. The European Commission confirmed the cut on July 25, 2025. Kyiv had requested €4.5 billion. Brussels approved €3.05 billion. The missing €1.5 billion is now frozen. …
Billions in chip projects scrapped in Europe. INTEL TO LAY OFF 15% OF WORKERS, CANCEL BILLIONS IN PROJECTS IN BID FOR REBOUND-WSJ — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) July 25, 2025 INTEL EMPLOYEE COUNT BY YEAR 2022: 131,9002023: 124,8002024: 108,9002025: 75,000 INTEL HAS LAID OFF NEARLY 45% OF ITS WORKFORCE OVER THE LAST 4 YEARS$INTC https://t.co/pjYvT9mYxf — …
Nearly 90,000 phantom jobs per month go unexplained. What is happening here? The BLS just said the number of jobs reported for the 9 months ending December 2024 was likely overstated by ~800,000. This comes as the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, covering 97% of employers, showed the US added 607,000 jobs… …
“Japan’s passenger car export prices to the US declined by a cumulative 20% or so in April-June. This implies that, for the time being, the Japanese auto industry is absorbing more than half of the 25 pp additional tariff on passenger cars, thereby mitigating the rise in US selling prices. If this trend were to …
Export prices fall three months straight pressure builds on yen… BREAKING: Japan’s passenger car export prices to North America dropped -12.0% M/M in May, the largest decline on record. This follows a -4.5% decrease in April, driven by the 25% US tariff imposed on auto imports from Japan. Meanwhile, total export prices in yen terms …
BREAKING: China’s total export volumes of rare-earth magnets fell -74% year-over-year in May, the biggest monthly decline on record. This comes after a -45% drop seen in April. Total rare-earth magnet exports reached 1.2 million kilograms last month, the least since February… pic.twitter.com/AuqJRTrVkB — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 23, 2025 🚨US economic activity is …
*SWISS CENTRAL BANK CUTS KEY INTEREST RATE BY 25BPS TO 0.0%, LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2022$CHF 🇨🇭🇨🇭 pic.twitter.com/Ajfw639gAz — Investing.com (@Investingcom) June 19, 2025 Zero yields are back! For those who believed zero and negative interest rates were something of the past. It already happened again, even without a new economic or financial crisis. The Swiss …
It was bound to happen. You could feel it in the way people searched. The old habits weren’t working anymore. After nearly twenty years of digital supremacy, Google’s dominance in search is no longer unshakable. For the first time since 2015, its market share has dipped below 90 percent and stayed there. This isn’t a …
One of the oddest things in the House budget bill was cutting the private market incentives in energy markets. 81% of incremental power generation will be crippled by that single stroke of the pen. How do we compete in AI and compete against China? They have an abundance of… pic.twitter.com/QOALsBwLum — Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath) May …
*US TO CUT TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS TO 30% FROM 145% FOR 90 DAYS *CHINA TO LOWER TARIFFS ON US GOODS TO 10% FROM 125% FOR 90 DAYS China going to 10% is where I expect both sides to be at by the end of these talks. The US needed to save face and stay …
A 1% annual investment fee will lower your portfolio by ~25.8% over 30 years. A 0.10% annual investment fee will lower it by only ~3% over 30 years. That 22 percentage point difference could cost you hundreds of thousands of dollars. Fees compound. pic.twitter.com/iv3zY0jQVh — The Money Cruncher, CPA (@money_cruncher) May 8, 2025 Most people …
Global trade outlook is deteriorating: The World Trade Organization expects world merchandise trade to fall -0.2% in 2025, down from +2.7% growth expected at the beginning of the year. This would follow the +2.9% growth recorded in 2024. North American trade is set to be hit… pic.twitter.com/c6h7dlUv4h — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 23, 2025 …
CHINA’S 2025 GLOW-UP? CANCELLED. UBS SLASHES GROWTH FORECAST AS TARIFFS BITE UBS—the fancy Swiss bank that stares at charts for a living—just said “nah” to China’s 2025 economy. They downgraded the growth forecast from 4% to a gloomy 3.4%. Why? Because the U.S. slapped on those spicy new tariffs, and now China’s exports are going …
Summary: The University of Michigan’s final report shows five-year inflation expectations jumped to 4.1% in March, the highest since February 1993. Consumer sentiment plunged 12% from February, reaching its weakest level since November 2022. Two-thirds of respondents expect unemployment to increase over the next year. Major U.S. equity indices dropped sharply following the release, with …
CoreWeave Inc.'s initial public offering raised $1.5 billion in a downsized deal, selling 37.5 million shares at $40 apiece. $CRWV The company's valuation would be about $23 billion on a fully diluted basis, down from an initial plan to raise about $4 billion and target a… — Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) March …
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) announced it had terminated 113 contracts valued at $4.7 billion Tuesday, including a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) consulting contract for Peru’s climate change activities. “[Tuesday] agencies terminated 113 wasteful contracts with a ceiling value of $4.7B and savings of $3.3B, including a $145K USDA consulting contract for ‘Peru …
Tech giants rethink the future… cc: @Dr_Gingerballs @DarioCpx @RealJimChanos pic.twitter.com/k0tc6pnf8R — Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) March 26, 2025 JIM CRAMER JUST TOLD NVIDIA $NVDA INVESTORS TO PREPARE FOR ‘TURBULENCE’ – CNBC pic.twitter.com/ezPTeeisqZ — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) March 26, 2025 Microsoft, $MSFT, has cancelled new data center projects in the US and Europe, per Bloomberg. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) …
BARCLAYS JUST CUT ITS YEAR END TARGET FOR THE S&P 500 DOWN TO 5900 FROM 6600 pic.twitter.com/iUeRyNjouC — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) March 26, 2025 UBS trying everything to prevent its capital reserve requirement from increasing by up to $25 Billion "UBS Group AG executives have suggested that a permanent limit on the size of its investment …