“Japan’s passenger car export prices to the US declined by a cumulative 20% or so in April-June. This implies that, for the time being, the Japanese auto industry is absorbing more than half of the 25 pp additional tariff on passenger cars, thereby mitigating the rise in US selling prices. If this trend were to spread to a wide range of industries, corporate profits could decline and nominal GDP could fall below our forecast.” – Goldman
China and other major exporters will follow suit. You can’t raise prices too high. There’s no replacing the American consumer.
— Jae Kim (@JaeKim1089208) July 17, 2025