Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Michael Why has hunger in America absolutely exploded during the past 4 years? And why are store closings in the United States on pace to set a brand new record high this year? A lot of people out there don’t want to admit that the U.S. economy has been crumbling for a long time. …
by confoundedinterest17 It’s Gov’t Gone Wild! That includes The House, Senate, President and Federal Reserve. The purchasing power of the US Dollar was $1004.4 on 1915-03-01. By 2025-05-01, the purchasing power fell to $31.1, a loss of 97%. Public debt since the last year of GW Bush, Obama/Biden (with a brief hiatus with Trump) rose …
Gold is no longer tethered to the dollar index. It’s been moving sideways from currency markets for months. The break became visible in April when the dollar index fell 6.4% off its March high, but gold kept climbing. It hit $3,288 per ounce on July 1. That is not noise. That is decoupling. The technicals …
May job gains revised down signaling labor slowdown… Companies are in lock down mode, reluctant to hire anyone right now. It will likely get worse until the Fed wakes up and cuts rates. pic.twitter.com/v40GWQRUXx — Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) July 2, 2025 If we start losing service jobs these jobs numbers are going to start …
Jerome Powell just confirmed what markets already suspected. The Federal Reserve would have cut rates by now if it weren’t for the tariff barrage coming out of the White House. That’s not speculation. That’s Powell’s own words. Inflation forecasts jumped after Trump’s tariff plan hit the tape. The Fed froze. The rate path changed. And …
by Michael The U.S. dollar just keeps getting weaker and weaker, and that is a major problem because our current standard of living depends on having a strong dollar. When the U.S. dollar is strong relative to other national currencies, our paychecks stretch farther and we can buy more stuff. Conversely, when the U.S. dollar …
The S&P 500 relative to the U.S. money supply looks incredibly similar to the 1999 blow-off top. pic.twitter.com/CpsVvr2TKa — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) June 30, 2025 Also notable: 4 week bill tanking, now almost 20 bps under RRP pic.twitter.com/qrZdz82dZU — George Gammon (@GeorgeGammon) June 30, 2025 The Fed is now providing Wall Street with liquidity through …
This is the largest debt ceiling increase in U.S. history. So much for “fiscal responsibility.” https://t.co/V6z78X9ubQ — Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) June 28, 2025 Trump’s “big beautiful bill” is very unpopular pic.twitter.com/wsOkzWanjZ — Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) June 28, 2025 Taiwan Investors are selling U.S. Bonds at the fastest pace since the onset of Covid …
The housing market is not just cooling. It is cracking. The latest data from May 2025 shows existing home sales running at an annualized pace of 4.03 million units. That is the weakest May since 2009. It is also the second-worst May on record. Sales have now declined year over year for four straight months. …
The surface numbers are holding. The real prices are not. In Q1 2025, the median list price for a newly built home in the United States was $448,393. That is down just 0.3% from the same time last year. On paper, the market looks flat. But the paper is lying. Builders are pulling every lever …
If that is not a sign of a topping pattern, I don’t know what is any more. BofA institutional clients are panic buying tech, with last week being the largest since at least 2008 👀 pic.twitter.com/f5sSoosGbn — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) June 25, 2025 wow look at all the volume the last few days. pic.twitter.com/tidIThsZY7 …
by confoundedinterest17 New home sales are going down. New home sales plunged in May, the biggest MoM drop since June 2022. The median sales price increased 3% from a year ago to $426,600 last month, marking the first year-over-year price gain in 2025. The plunge in new home sales came as mortgage rates ticked back higher. …
Markets hit weekly high right after Israel strike but low summer liquidity could trigger another brutal crash… Oil is pointing to a new global deflation. That I predict will be outside of central bank control aka. a mass deleveraging event. pic.twitter.com/Srkj9RtjbJ — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 24, 2025 Today was the biggest down day for oil …
Wall Street’s getting that look again. Not loud. Not panicked. Just quietly nervous. This week, the market sent out one of those soft warning signs that most people scroll past without noticing. The 3-month skew on S&P 500 options just spiked to a level we have not seen since early August last year. To most, …
Echoes of 2008 stir on Wall Street… Just as in 2000 & 2007, when weekly unemployment claims start nearing 300K you can kiss the bull market goodbye. Mark it down. 💯 Chart from @profplum99. pic.twitter.com/bJffcNyvN5 — John (@market_sleuth) June 19, 2025 CRASH WARNING🛑 Dow Jones 2008 vs 2025 Likely or Unlikely? Study carefully; carefully study. …
The Bank of Japan is shrinking its balance sheet at a record pace: The Bank of Japan’s bond holdings dropped by -6.2 trillion Yen in Q1 2025, the most on record. Over the last 5 quarters, the BoJ's holdings have now declined by -14.2 trillion Yen. As a result, the BoJ's… pic.twitter.com/JJjLSzhyka — The Kobeissi …
People are staying unemployed longer and businesses are pulling back. Fed complacency with this? It’s recklessly ignoring a labor market that’s quietly unraveling. First, how can the unemployed population (i.e. continuing claims) rise without a corresponding rise in initial jobless claims? This is a symptom of a cooling labor market, where people struggle to secure …
Corporate insiders are selling shares at fastest pace since election last year. pic.twitter.com/VkxFnUwnvo — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) June 12, 2025 Investors are passing on stocks and flocking to the 4% yield in money markets even though the dollar is falling in value. Interesting. Lots of people have no interest in this market even though it rises …
Home prices are falling for the first time since 2012. Going to be very hard to avoid a recession with a dead housing market. pic.twitter.com/5RB4ucijqh — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) June 9, 2025 Housing has become the most unaffordable in the entire history the United States. Heckova job, "Zimbabwe Ben" Bernanke, Yellen the Felon, & BlackRock …
Herein lies the problem for Tech bulls and stock market bulls in general. Semiconductors which are at the epicenter of the AI trade, are having their biggest 10 week gain since Y2K – bigger than the pandemic. However, they are also making their third lower high. pic.twitter.com/bksMCAY7aj — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 9, 2025 Stock Market …
The Tanning Tax Repeal Act of 2025 scraps a 15-year-old ObamaCare relic that crushed small businesses while failing miserably to meet revenue targets. The 10% excise tax on indoor tanning services was projected to rake in $2.7B over a decade but barely delivered $91M by 2012.… — Watch DOGE (@dogeai_gov) June 8, 2025
These jumps in unemployment are insane. Windsor: 7.8 to 10.8 Oshawa: 5.3 to 9.1 Toronto: 7.8 to 8.8 Barrie: 6.2 to 8.4 Ontario is getting hammered. pic.twitter.com/8HPqMbqmSY — red pill rick (@igetredpilled) June 6, 2025 Canada’s unemployment rate hits 7%, which is the highest since 2016. Ontario is bumbling with an 8% unemployment, which I …
Container shipping traffic from China to the US is plummeting: The number of ships departing from China to the US over the last 15 days has dropped to its lowest since February. Excluding the Chinese New Year-related decline in February, this is the lowest level in over a year.… pic.twitter.com/AYuPPJRXwS — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) …
The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index fell for a second straight month to its lowest level in four months. The index sank to 40.5 this month from 44.6 in April, falling short of the 45.1 forecast. The latest reading marks the 18th consecutive month the index has contracted. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) May 30, 2025 Hedge …
BREAKING: April PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, FALLS to 2.1%, below expectations of 2.2%. Core PCE inflation FALLS to 2.5%, in-line with expectations of 2.5%. PCE inflation is now at its lowest level since September 2024. All eyes are on the Fed. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 30, 2025 🇺🇸 Morning Economic …
US corporate profits just fell the most since the global financial crisis days ("GFC"). But, don't worry… all is well. pic.twitter.com/yTXi6TF7Sy — Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) May 29, 2025 Leading Economic Indicators look at the future.Lagging Economic Indicators look at the past. When we divide the Leading Index by the Lagging Index, we get a series …
The S&P 500 is very close to ATH, while M&A deals have just reached their lowest level ever. This is a symptom of a very fragile economy and financial system that depends on ongoing liquidity injections. Probably nothing. pic.twitter.com/5nZOScGyjR — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) May 29, 2025 This is scary pic.twitter.com/eVDbcr9HJm — Liberty Street News (@LbrtyStreetNews) …
The U.S. economy has officially entered a downturn, with the latest Q1 2025 GDP estimate confirming a 0.2 percent contraction. While this revision is slightly better than the initial 0.3 percent decline, it still marks the first economic shrinkage since 2022. This signals growing instability, with businesses and investors bracing for further turbulence. The primary …
"We see a housing crisis coming next." "Home prices need to come down." pic.twitter.com/zHXHKIF8lm — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 27, 2025 We have the biggest gap ever between Home Prices and Mortgage Rates in 2025. Prices are 90% above the 130-year average. Meanwhile, Mortgage Rates are right around the long-term average (6.7%). The resulting gap …
JUST IN: 67% of US consumers now expect higher unemployment over the next 12 months, the highest since 2008. This percentage has more than doubled over the last 5 months. Currently, more Americans anticipate higher unemployment than during the 1981-82, 1990-1991, and 2001… pic.twitter.com/oAw2AOUJ6w — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 26, 2025 The best leading …