Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
I have another chart that shows the US labor market improving. The NFIB Small Business Optimism survey saw a rise in the number of firms who plan to increase employment versus decrease employment. Over the last 6 months, the rate-of-change exceeds 96% of all periods since 1985. pic.twitter.com/i492W5C7wG — Jeff Weniger (@JeffWeniger) December 9, 2025 …
All signs point to the first double bear market in one year since the 1930s. Unforeseen by basically everyone. The criminal element can't predict their own handiwork coming undone. pic.twitter.com/YwRGWd0Nyl — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 9, 2025 How far can this go? Investors are in "all-in mode", as NYSE available cash as a percentage of market …
The pic.twitter.com/n5DK9NBjyU — David Levenson. I am increasing low beta leverage. (@PolarityRadio) December 8, 2025 The US 10-year yield has been in a downtrend since May (highlighted). Now it looks more like a breakout. pic.twitter.com/rVzSNwmvfi — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) December 8, 2025 A BIG STORM IS COMING!!! Look at these yields… – U.S. 10Y is …
BREAKING: U.S. layoffs set to surpass the Great Recession levels, on track to be worst since Great Depression. — Polymarket (@Polymarket) December 7, 2025 US layoffs soar past 1.1M in 2025, highest level since the pandemic November saw 71,321 job cuts announced, down 53% from October but pushing yearly total up 54% Layoffs announced by …
OUCH! The bond-market sell-off is continuing, w/German 30y yields climbing to their highest level since 2011 byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts If in doubt, the answer is always higher taxes or higher inflation. THE ENDGAME HAS BEGAN byu/Visible-Title6180 inWallstreetsilver h/t sunk-capital
US leading economic indicators are still deteriorating: The ratio of US leading to coincident economic indicators is down to 0.85, the lowest level since 2008. This ratio has now declined for 4 consecutive years. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) tracks forward-looking data, including consumer expectations, manufacturing orders, weekly hours, and initial jobless claims. …
The 30-year just broke out of its 3-month range. If it keeps rising, it may turn from a range bounce into a rising trend. US 10-year bond yield is set for its biggest weekly gain since June 2025. Despite Fed cutting rates, 10-year bond yield is above 4%. Not a good sign for risk-on assets. …
BREAKING: The Most Sweeping Consolidation of U.S. Economic Power Since 1971 Trump’s inner circle is architecting something Wall Street hasn’t seen in half a century. If Kevin Hassett takes the Federal Reserve Chair (80% odds on Kalshi), Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will simultaneously lead the National Economic Council. One man. Treasury. The NEC. Already acting …
Challenger, Gray & Christmas said layoff plans totaled 71,321 in November, a step down from the massive cuts announced in October but still enough to bring the 2025 total up to 1.17 million. The most-cited reason for the month was restructuring, followed by closings and market or economic conditions. Announced job cuts from U.S. employers …
The irrational policies of the German elite have been harming not only Germany itself but also all of Europe for years. And yet, there's no sign of a clear sobering up. This is fertile ground for awakening various demons in society and feeding externally funded schemers. pic.twitter.com/jmz8jdZehd — Will Not Live Twice (@pablobojar) December 2, …
JAPAN’S 2-YEAR YIELD HITS 1% FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2008, AND THE YEN CARRY TRADE JUST CRUMBLED OVERNIGHT. Stocks and Bitcoin mass liquidations return. pic.twitter.com/Uf3vxIsoRy — Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) December 1, 2025 Japan’s bond market sent a clear signal this week. The country’s two-year government bond yield touched 1%. Its highest level since 2008. …
Bitcoin is still in a downtrend, still making lower highs/lower lows and still warning the entire market but most traders won’t recognize it until it’s 30% lower. Yes, #Bitcoin may push toward $97–$100K. That lower high is still on the table. But none of that changes the thesis going into January. A counter trend rally …
by confoundedinterest17 Roll out the barrel! As in Fed money printing. How can the current housing disaster be fixed? One answer is to build more homes (made difficult by local government zoning and building policies). Another is increase household income. But Fed money printing is the easiest way to increase home prices. Since the Federal government …
‼️Global central bank rate cuts are running ABOVE the Great Financial Crisis pace: World central banks have cut rates 316 times over the last 2 years, the most THIS CENTURY. Following the Financial Crisis response, they cut 313 times in 2 years. 👇https://t.co/hNOlF08Opy — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) November 29, 2025 In the two years …
JUST IN 🚨: Nasdaq $QQQ posts first red month since March 📉 It was a hell of a run 🫡 pic.twitter.com/SDBAZ4AMoN — Barchart (@Barchart) November 28, 2025 **NVIDIA** A concerning day for Nvidia: trading red amid a broad-based rally in equities, commodities, and precious metals. The broadening pattern is like a black hole…nothing escapes once …
This was all pre planned. Government printed dollars. Lowered rates to 0%. You thought you were getting free monies to buy LED TV! In reality you were paying for this with your future and the elites were capturing every single asset — from stocks to houses to farm land! https://t.co/eprXRpb8jj — tic toc (@TicTocTick) November …
(Bloomberg) — Applications for US unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest since mid-April, remaining relatively subdued amid economic uncertainty. Initial claims decreased by 6,000 to 216,000 in the week ended Nov. 22. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 225,000 applications. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number …
Kīlauea began the 37th episode in its series of eruptions this afternoon with bursts of lava reaching hundreds of feet out of the volcano’s north vent. The volcanic activity at the Halemaʻumaʻu crater resumed at 2:30 p.m. and the lava fountain heights are increasing rapidly. h/t b4its2l8
Palantir’s CEO Alex Karp just filed to sell more shares of $PLTR, for almost $100 million. Palantir is now down -25% since Michael Burry disclosed his short position. byu/TonyLiberty inFluentInFinance This is one company I want to see go bankrupt. h/t hotDamQc
They’ve been doing it to us ever since the Patriot Act passed. Welcome to the club. pic.twitter.com/QAPHNtsiLm — Kierkegaard's Leap (@KierkegaardLeap) November 21, 2025 Welcome to the real world. pic.twitter.com/s6f8PbYTvZ — Lisa (@Limare64) November 21, 2025 Screw you, Jim. Anytime a Republican is president, you vote to extend the Patriot Act and allow “they”to spy …
“The company behind Donald Trump’s social network Truth Social has lost more than $400m (£305m) on its stash of Bitcoin as the price of the cryptocurrency plunges in a trillion dollar market sell-off. Trump Media & Technology Group held more than 11,542 Bitcoin at the end of September, according to its latest financial statement. These …
.@VP: "This economy was not harmed in 10 months. It took a deliberate 4-year administration that was making life harder for everyday Americans, that was importing foreign workers… over regulating, overtaxing… As much progress as we've made, it's going to take a little bit of… pic.twitter.com/ycgvkBPftW — Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) November 20, 2025 And …
https://twitter.com/spice1975503/status/1991520334458343476 Noticing a growing number of Fed officials voicing concerns about private credit lately. But this one is esp notable where one of them is openly highlighting risks among life insurers (its largest investor base). If the Fed is concerned about lifers, things are quite serious. pic.twitter.com/sC3uUFrdKq — Mr. VIX (@yieldsearcher) November 20, 2025 Everything’s …
by Michael During the days of the Great Recession, rapidly falling home prices caused all sorts of havoc for our major financial institutions. Unfortunately, home prices are starting to plummet once again in many areas of the country. And just like during the last housing crash, we are also seeing a surge in foreclosure filings. That …
Japan Tells China They Will Attack Them If They Invade Taiwan, China FURIOUS Speaking in parliament last week, Takaichi said Chinese attempts to forcibly reunify with the self-governing island could amount to a “survival-threatening situation” under Japan’s security legislation and potentially trigger a military response from Tokyo. Her comment marked a departure from previous Japanese …
If we get a rally here it won’t be because things feel healthy, it’ll be because the drop has gotten heavy enough that buyers smell a quick flip. pic.twitter.com/53GwRJs8XJ — Sir Meemsalot (@Meme0rable) November 14, 2025 Crypto markets have now erased -$1.1 trillion since October 6th. pic.twitter.com/mTgpK8ExbO — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 14, 2025 …
by Michael Do you remember how bad things were in 2008 and 2009? It was an economic nightmare that shook the entire world, and now it appears that the sequel is upon us. As you will see below, many economic numbers are either as bad as they have been since the Great Recession or they …
via James Hickman By the autumn of 1648, England had been embroiled in a chaotic and bloody civil war for more than six years. Extreme ideological tensions in England had been building for decades over freedom of religion, plus the balance of power within government. King Charles was wildly unpopular. And a majority of politicians …
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported slowing growth in monthly revenue, highlighting uncertainty over the sustainability of the AI boom even as industry behemoths including Nvidia Corp. chase more chip supplies. The company posted a 16.9% rise in sales for October, the slowest pace since February 2024. Analysts on average are expecting sales to increase 16% …
The inflation has been bad for the past 4 years and Trump made it worse. Never forget!! pic.twitter.com/xlWSoJVdOj — Caroline Kliby (@SchnurreZueri) November 10, 2025 Did you think Trump would wave his magic wand to fix the disaster that happened over the past 4 years? 😄 pic.twitter.com/Mtsz9sh1xb — Fedup American 🇺🇲💪 (@Fedup026) November 10, 2025 …