A hub for independent voices and hard truths
by confoundedinterest17 What’s it going to be? Mortgage rate increases or balance sheet (MBS) reductions? Since the Covid outbreak in early 2020, The Fed went wild with rate cuts and massive and unpredented balance sheet expansion. Let’s look at The Fed’s puchase of agency MBS and mortgage rates. From 2020 2022, …
🚨GLOBAL RECESSION ALERT🚨 Copper plummeted below $4.10 for the 1st time since Mar 2024, heading for the worst streak since the Pandemic CRASH. Copper fell for 9 days straight, as inventories SPIKED to highest since 2020. As a reminder copper is a key economic bellwether. pic.twitter.com/FGTB5A3fzt — Global Markets Investor …
wow this the highest 10 day realized vol has been since May 2023 pic.twitter.com/m0Ke0i3D59 — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) July 26, 2024 2/ Michael Burry recently sold about $50 million worth of his stock portfolio This is the same investor who foresaw the housing market collapse in 2008 And made …
by Mike Shedlock The homebuilders’ inventory of started but unsold homes is steeply rising as sales drop. It will take price cuts to clear inventory. Data from census department, chart by Mish New Residential Construction Yesterday, the Census Department released the New Residential Construction report for June. New Home Sales: Sales of …
Has the day of reckoning finally arrived? Wednesday’s rout in tech stocks led by Tesla and Google parent Alphabet wiped a collective $1 trillion in value off U.S. equities, signaling a broad-based correction could be in store. Losses in the benchmark S&P 500 index and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite endured their …
Financials Bullishness pic.twitter.com/6tEnWECJJ6 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) July 25, 2024 S&P 500's earnings beat rate is still healthy at nearly 79%, but the revenue beat rate is currently at its lowest since the fourth quarter of 2016 pic.twitter.com/7QmvLufdG1 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) July 25, 2024 https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1816441931850797083 The streak …
I have been raising the alarm about Kamala Harris and who she really is for years. Amazon banned my book on July 22nd, 2024 after it had been for sale since 2020. You can now order it on Lulu: https://t.co/XcHMkoUE4n It has great reviews: https://t.co/1hIwJG7IYM pic.twitter.com/Tx7cTV9WWu — Caleb T. Maupin …
Auburn Coach on Trump: “He’d Take a Bullet for Us” Auburn men’s basketball head coach Bruce Pearl expressed his astonishment at the recent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump but found inspiration in Trump’s unwavering resilience and composure during the assassination attempt on his life. Following the violent …
WARNING: Housing defaults have skyrocketed Such a run-up was last seen during the Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/KcDppiC6Lz — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 19, 2024 Housing Affordability Continues to Erode The latest data on housing affordability paints an increasingly challenging picture for American homebuyers. As of July 2024, the median household would …
Initial and continuing jobless claims are continuing to rise with initial claims at 243,000 (+20,000 in one week) and continuing jobless claims at their highest level since 2021. — Wealthion (@wealthion) July 18, 2024 Continuing jobless claims increased to almost 1.9 million today, the highest since late 2021#MacroEdge — MacroEdge …
China’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has indeed seen a significant decline. As of the latest reports, FDI into China dropped by 28.2% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since January 2009. This decline reflects broader economic challenges and shifts in global investment patterns. https://twitter.com/joosteninvestor/status/1813953331217436971
The S&P 500's price to peak earnings ratio has moved up to 25.9, its highest level since 2000 and 50% above the historical median. $SPXhttps://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih pic.twitter.com/DFI74St163 — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) July 17, 2024 Nasdaq Large Engulfing candle, followed by a falling window 2 major warnings🚨 Engulfing is a bearish trend …
"M&A activity across the US and Canada slowed in the second quarter of 2024 to the lowest level since the early days of the pandemic, owing to relatively high interest rates and financing challenges."@SPGlobal pic.twitter.com/Vd9ervi16o — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) July 17, 2024 There are 33 MILLION small businesses in the …
JUST IN: More than 33% of US consumers are now worried about making ends meet over the next 6 months. This includes 30% of Americans earning $150,000 or more annually, according to the Fed survey of 5,000 respondents. Over the last 12 months, 43% of all surveyed consumers and… pic.twitter.com/fRqJlcbOUv …
How does this happen? pic.twitter.com/eYWNxzv4S9 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) July 15, 2024 Former US Army Sniper on Trump Assassination Attempt: ‘One of the Easiest Shots’ [VIDEO]
EIG published the exact report last year, nothing too new here except mid-year 2023 data. if their numbers are right in both reports the splashier headline is that NYC lost 7% of its 0-5 year old population y/y. https://t.co/Z9MbSiwVEq — ASIDE (@AdamSeiden) July 10, 2024 The urban family exodus has …
by confoundedinterest17 Hot ‘Lanta! Or perhaps COLD ‘Lanta! And despite what Biden says, thiere isn’t an economic revival. Yes. everyone can see the mental decline in President Biden and he should be in a nursing home. While he vows to run for President against Donald Trump, can you imagine what he will …
The unemployment rate for young, college-educated women just had its boldest non-Covid jump since records began in 2000 (not seasonally adjusted). This series moves up and down like a Richter scale. Even so, the nature of this rapid pop from 1.8% to 4.1% caught my eye. pic.twitter.com/N70lXNqMPw — Jeff Weniger …
Speculative positioning in US equity index futures is at all-time highs 🚨 https://t.co/TanGdixabv pic.twitter.com/VUXve06IL3 — Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) July 8, 2024 Asset Managers’ exposure to US equity futures hits a record high. https://twitter.com/Barchart/status/1810467469879857513 Concentration concern: the 3-month correlation between the S&P 500 and the # of stocks advancing has …
Office vacancies in San Francisco hit another record in the second quarter, and rent prices fell to their lowest since 2015, according to Cushman & Wakefield. San Francisco is benefiting from the artificial intelligence boom, with OpenAI, Anthropic and Scale AI signing big leases in the past year. But the …
Corporate bankruptcies in the United States surged to their highest monthly level in June 2024 since early 2020. A total of 75 companies filed for bankruptcy during that month, surpassing the numbers seen in June and July of 2020. The increase in bankruptcies is attributed to factors such as high interest …
IMO- Retail sales NUMBERS have held up due to total dollars, but that means buying less physical goods. NOW, cumulative inflation has pushed people into getting even less and adding more on their cards just to survive? — Scott Sheller (@ScottSheller) July 5, 2024 CAUTION: Housing defaults have just skyrocketed …
The U.S. government conducted its first large-scale flight since 2018 to remove multiple Chinese nationals ineligible to remain in the country. The Department of Homeland Security announced on July 2 that its Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency carried out the removal flight over the weekend, in coordination with authorities …
Inflation rates have slowed down somewhat, after having soared to record highs in recent years, but the damage to Americans’ purchasing power has been done — no matter how much you earn or what field you work in. In fact, a staggering 97% of jobs have failed to keep up …
by confoundedinterest17 Housing in the US is simply unaffordable. Particularly since home prices and mortgage rates have soared under Biden. .Owning a house is less affordable for average earners in the US than at anytime in 17 years. The costs of a typical home — including mortgage payments, property insurance and taxes …
In June, construction industry saw largest increase in layoff announcements per @ChallengerGray … hasn't seen a spike that large since September 2007 pic.twitter.com/6zee9KAtVf — Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon) July 3, 2024 Continuing claims a new cycle high Approaching 1.9mm #MacroEdge https://t.co/sDxirI4NOC pic.twitter.com/Rod0M3P2mT — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) July 3, 2024 Nice little …
Supply chain disruptions. Congested ports. Delivery delays. Soaring shipping prices. All of this seemed like a distant memory from the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, but it’s happening again, and conditions are far scarier this time around. The head of ocean freight of the Americas at Rhenus Logistics, Stephanie Loomis, …
Macro was ugly – really ugly – today: Personal Consumption ugly (Q1 downgraded on 3rd look), continuing jobless claims ugly (highest since Nov 2021), core capital goods new orders and shipments ugly (not a great signals for Q2 GDP), pending home sales ugly (puke to record lows SAAR), and finally, Kansas City Fed manufacturing ugly (21st month in a row …
Asset managers have significantly increased their short positions on the Japanese Yen. The currency is at risk of sliding to levels last seen in 1986, with bearish traders seemingly unfazed by the possibility of government intervention to support Japan’s embattled currency. Some experts suggest that a slump as far as …
Ledgers of the failed fintech middleman Synapse show that nearly all the deposits held for customers of the banking app Yotta went missing weeks ago. A network of eight banks held $109 million in deposits for Yotta customers as of April 11, according to Evolve Bank & Trust, which filed …