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Trillions of dollars of money printing since Covid has created the illusion of a growing economy… in fact, the US economy is in the midst of a depression. Marc Faber warns markets could deflate 50%.

Textbook recession: 2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP Textbook depression: 12 consecutive quarters (3yrs) of negative real GDP 🇺🇸 currently in 9th consecutive quarter of negative real GDP ⚠️ — CJK (@CJKonstantinos) August 29, 2024 31% of parents say they are unable to afford back-to-school shopping for their kids …

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“Gold has outperformed Treasury bonds by 100% since March 2020, amid rising government spending.

2/ US government bonds have broken below a 40-year uptrend After experiencing one of the most aggressive bear market since the 1980s pic.twitter.com/FTPZvQuipe — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 28, 2024 4/ Since March 2020, gold has outperformed Treasury bonds by +100% coinciding with rising government spending Government expenditures have gone …

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Kate Middleton is seen at Crathie Kirk for the first time since revealing her cancer diagnosis as she joins Prince William and other Royal Family

The Princess of Wales has made her first appearance at Crathie Kirk since revealing her cancer diagnosis earlier this year. Kate Middleton, 42, appeared in high spirits as she was pictured arriving for Sunday service with her husband William. Also snapped making their way to the Scottish church were King …

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U.S. Dollar Index $DXY on track for lowest close since July 2023. People think they’re getting richer as the market goes up but in real terms not really.

U.S. Dollar Index $DXY on track for lowest close since July 2023 👀 pic.twitter.com/QttP92aA3K — Barchart (@Barchart) August 23, 2024 This is crazy. People think they’re getting richer as the market goes up but in real terms not really. https://t.co/dytRkimwVe — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 23, 2024 Wall Street’s reaction …

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FOMC Minutes: “The staff provided an update on its assessment of the stability of the U.S. financial system and, on balance, continued to characterize the system’s financial vulnerabilities as notable.” “Hedge fund leverage reached its highest level since 2013.” Ruh-roh…

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20240731.pdf TLDRS: The Federal Reserve’s July FOMC meeting minutes highlight economic concerns and financial vulnerabilities. Usage of the Overnight Reverse Repo (ON RRP) facility slightly declined, with a more noticeable decrease expected later in the year due to increased Treasury bill issuance but could change due to idiosyncratic factors specific …

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Kamala raises $500 million in one month since Biden quit

CHICAGO (Reuters) – U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris’ election effort has raised around $500 million since she became the Democratic presidential candidate, sources told Reuters, an unprecedented money haul that reflects donor enthusiasm going into the Nov. 5 election. Four sources familiar with the fundraising effort told Reuters that figure …

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Equities saw largest fragility shock on record… Hedge Funds are net bearish on commodities for the first time since 2016. Incredible timing.

Equities saw largest fragility shock on record… From @dailychartbook pic.twitter.com/kobmFd70EQ — Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) August 20, 2024 Hedge Funds are net bearish on commodities for the first time since 2016. Incredible timing. Right when commodities are starting to outperform. The fund flows rotation will be epic and …

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That’s Biden/Harrisnomics! Leading Economic Indicators Down For 29th Straight Month (Outside Of Great Financial Crisis, The Worst Decline In LEI Since Mid ’70s!!!)

by confoundedinterest17 That’s Biden/Harrisnomics! US Leading Economic Indicators down for their 29th straight month – at a level worse than the trough of COVID lockdowns… …and the head of The Conference Board says ‘nothing to see here’… “The LEI continues to fall on a month-over-month basis, but the six-month annual …

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SCE Labor Market Survey: The proportion of individuals who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks rose to 28.4% from 19.4% in July 2023, highest since March 2014. The average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed in the next four months reached a series high.

Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/labor#/ TLDRS: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s July 2024 SCE Labor Market Survey reveals significant changes in the job market, with 28.4% of individuals actively searching for jobs, the highest level since the survey’s inception in 2014. The rise in job searches was particularly pronounced among those over …

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Dollar Reserves Have Dropped By 14 Percent Since 2002

by Mike Maharrey Dollar dominance is slowly ebbing as the world looks to diversify away from the greenback. The share of dollars making up global reserves has dropped by 14 percent since the turn of the century, according to data compiled by the Atlantic Council. As of 2002, dollars accounted for …

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First time since the 1970s Fed hasn’t cut rates amid rising unemployment. Economic data may be manipulated like in Weimar Germany; real impact felt later.

They will fake the economic data just like they did during Weimar Germany, and you won't know you are in a recession or a depression until you are waiting in the bread lines. It's called "political arithmetic" and it's always used during periods of monetary debasement and rampant… pic.twitter.com/7hgKSCF8QD — …

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Lumber prices plunge, signaling sharp slowdown in US housing and economic conditions… Housing Permits plunge 4.0% to 1.396, lowest since June 2020

BREAKING: Lumber prices have declined to their lowest level since the 2020 pandemic, down 80% in 2 years. Lumber is a leading indicator for the US housing market, global economic conditions, and inflation. The rapid drop in lumber prices suggests that the US residential… pic.twitter.com/Ksc6aqczI0 — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) …

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Inflation falls to 2.9%, lower than expectations.‬ Consumer price growth has slowed to its lowest levels in the post-pandemic period.‬ ‪The first interest rate cuts since 2020 should come in September.‬

by TonyLiberty Fed chief Powell to set table for September rate cut at Jackson Hole, but jobs data will set the size Oh yay. Only 2.9% higher than the 4.5% increase last year and the 8.8% higher increase the year before and the 3% before. So we are only 21% …

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Big Short Redux CMBS Style, Top AAA-rated CMBS Experienced $40 Million Loss In May (First Time Since 2008 Financial Crisis)

by confoundedinterest17 Is this The Big Short, CMBS style? The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 8.1% in July, the highest in 11 years. The delinquency rate of office CMBS loans has QUADRUPLED in 1.5 years. Delinquencies are currently rising at a faster pace than …

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S&P liquidity index sees worst two-week drop since 1996. Surprising given conditions aren’t as dire as during GFC or COVID.

🚨HISTORIC DECLINE IN TRADING LIQUIDITY Bloomberg reports the two-week drop in the S&P liquidity index is the worst on record since 1996. “That’s pretty surprising given that conditions are nowhere near as bad as they were during the GFC or Covid” OUCH. — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 9, 2024 …

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Markets pricing in the most cuts since 2008…. BOJ rate hike + Fed rate cut = a major risk-off event!

"Markets pricing in the most cuts since 2008."@marketdesk via @MikeZaccardi pic.twitter.com/qIUTMQymi8 — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) August 10, 2024 This is where the bull shit hits the road. This entire week's global rally was based on the widespread belief that the BOJ has paused permanently. However, the majority of economists in …

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41% of Russell 2000 companies report negative earnings, doubling since 2006, comparable to 2008 crisis levels.

41% of Russell 2000 companies now have negative earnings This number is up more than 2x since 2006 And is comparable to levels seen during the peak of 2008 Financial Crisis This is not sustainable pic.twitter.com/CTN5a9ayaw — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 8, 2024 Certainly not ruling out the summer 07 …

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Mortgage Purchase Applications Rise In Latest MBA Survey But Still Down -11% Since Same Week Last Year (MBS Convexity Rising As Rates Decline)

by confoundedinterest17 The slowing US economy has a silver lining: Treasury and mortgage rates are declining. And the is spurring faster mortgage prepayments. Mortgage applications increased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 2, …

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$VIX +51% … on pace for biggest daily spike since November 2021

$VIX +51% … on pace for biggest daily spike since November 2021 pic.twitter.com/jjf4BdiEBr — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) August 2, 2024 Short-term, market ignores valuations, driven by momentum. Eventually, gravity will reassert itself. "The S&P 500’s price to peak earnings multiple hit 25.9, its highest level since 2000 and 50% above …

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Kamala Mondale Has Done ZERO Press Conferences Or Interviews Since Being Declared The Unelected Presidential Candidate!

What are her handlers so afraid of??? Kamala Harris has done no interviews or press conferences since becoming the *unelected* Democratic nominee… Literally zero questions. Strangely… no complaints from CNN journalists. The media has become so biased to their respective parties at this point, it’s a joke. https://t.co/OeTffHhdif — Geiger …

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Inflation-adjusted hourly compensation down 5.2% since late 2020; productivity up. CPI inflation expected to collapse.

Inflation-adjusted hourly compensation is down 5.2% since the final quarter of '20 and is unchanged from a year ago, despite an increase in productivity and higher nominal pay: pic.twitter.com/1goh8soIMQ — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) August 1, 2024 US CPI inflation set to collapse. The Q2 productivity and unit labour cost …

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“US data consistency surprising to the downside since May has re-kindled recession concerns among US credit investors.” – BofA Seliger

"US data consistency surprising to the downside since May has re-kindled recession concerns among US credit investors." – BofA Seliger pic.twitter.com/I4Wkn40UWg — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) July 29, 2024 "The US economy is slowing, which is just fine with the Fed," per Bloomberg. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 29, 2024 BREAKING: Personal …

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